As if to vindicate my earlier thoughts on what is likely to unfold within the main political parties following their respective elective congresses, we are hearing some murmurs coming out a little louder now. I have argued that the elective congresses were in themselves a key phase to test the stability of political parties and the resolve of their members in the wake of interpretations of the conduct of such congresses and associated implications for some individuals or groups within the various parties. Additionally, I have also argued that the past the elective congresses still lies the final primary elections as the last hurdle for parties to negotiate their way across. These are and will be indicators not only of how deep these slowly getting louder murmurs but more importantly would be how the respective political parties manage and resolve the conflicts or associated tensions. In the absence of any definitive resolutions on these would be each party’s capacity and commitment to at least mitigate against the impacts of these murmurs.
What are these murmurs that are seemingly getting louder? We have heard of (possibly for the first time), a Botswana Congress Party activist chastising both the youth leadership for been pre-occupied with enjoying peanuts at the high tables and the party veterans for not relinquishing power/positions to the upcoming young ones. This coupled with other aspects such as the debate/dialogue on how to actualise the affirmative action policies as stipulated by the BCP presidency could be the first signs of what tensions are still simmering and whether these could eventually explode come primary elections is yet to be seen. In some quarters this would appear to be just a minor difference of opinion but if we follow the practice and what some call the culture of BCP, its not been their way of doing things hence creates eyebrows as to where is it leading to.
We hear from the Botswana National Front that history is about to repeat itself with the emergence of yet another “Temporary Platform” led by those who felt marginalised at the elective congress.
This marginalisation has apparently denied the party an opportunity to dialogue and possibly resolve the impasse about constituency allocation amongst the members of the Unity for Democratic Change (UDC). This is a scenario that is reminiscent of the 2008 and another later emergence of maybe the first “Temporary Platform”. It is indeed a recurrence of older rifts and for some ideological battles that have always been part of the history of the BNF. The question would be how will the party manage and resolve these tensions and whether its experience with going through phases such as these will be of any assistance this time around. It is clear that these murmurs will possibly become louder and more intense as primary elections approach and the extent to which the party can succeed in resolving the issues will be critical for its stability and performance in the coming elections in 2014.
As if not to be outdone, we here things are also not so rouse within the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP). First was a warning from the former party chairman that some recent developments following the elective congress may destabilise the party and therefore likely to affect the party’s performance come 2014, and secondly, a reported exchange of not so mutual words between the outgoing chairman and the newly elected chairman in the corridors of the National Assembly, on matters of how party structures ought to dialogue certain party issues. Could these be a precursor to what may happen as tensions simmer following the conduct and outcome of the elective congress and would the primary elections act to raise the temperatures even higher? Again what seemed to be contained murmurs seem to be getting a bit louder and time will tell as to how these crystalize and what form they will take. I think more importantly is not just what the real issues are and whether the tensions emerge along the so called party factions. This is indeed a challenge to the BDP and its newly elected leadership and how these issues are managed is something to look forward to.
I want to believe that all these murmurs that are getting louder by the day and are indications of possible instability within the main parties and I am inclined to think that the conduct and management of each’ s primary elections may act to burst the bubble and create hostilities within these parties and these include any that may have not yet become that loud for the other parties, especially UDC members. It will be interesting to see how the respective leaderships handle these matters. Will they crack the whip and enforce discipline and risk possible defiance that may include defections and emergence of independent candidates come 2014 or they will tread with care and hope to massage the tensions for the stability of their respective parties. It will be a thin and dicey situation for all political parties but one thing is certain, if any of these murmurs become much louder than they are today, it will position the concerned party badly and the impact on the performance of the party in 2014 will not be what the leadership would want to see.
Lastly, the positioning for representing the party come 2014 is going to be a key factor in either minimising or blowing the tensions out and all that will depend on each party’s leadership handling of these matters. These are potentially very divisive and we await the parties’ strategies and internal capacity to resolve or at the very least to mitigate against these potentially distractive tensions. Let’s remember 2014 is slowly approaching.
