A decidedly resolute decision by President Ian Khama to postpone to the last minute his choice of successor has caught up with him. He has now run out of choices, out of time and possibly out of ideas, too. As a result we might have as his successor the weakest president this country has ever had yet. And this at a time when the governing party is itself structurally at its weakest, run and controlled by pseudo plutocrats who last year used money to wrestle control even as it was abundantly clear they had no idea that politics is about public service and not self-enrichment. These are the people more obsessed with money with which they buy toys and less with ideas that can shape the country. For all his outside aura of exuberance and gaucho temperament, inside himself, Khama is a man consumed by caution, megalomania and insecurity that border on fear and paranoia.
That about sums all the pointless indecision on the succession issue. Forget all the crap that he is for now not worried about who his successor will be, the reality is that ahead of even what his legacy will turn out to be, the issue of succession is the question that keeps President Khama awake at night. There is a belief gaining ground inside the BDP that should the party perform exceptionally well in the General Elections, the plutocrats who now control it will be so vindicated that their influence will grow including by calling for one of their own to be considered for position of vice president. There is a measure of merit to this thinking. But for now anything can happen. Throughout his tenure as president, Ian Khama has continually outperformed himself by moving from one big surprise to the other. On his first day as president he surprised many by appointing Gen. Mompati Merafhe as his deputy. Although always a contender, Merafhe was largely seen as a dark horse.
Just as the public felt he had an opportunity to deal once and for all with perceptions of sleaze that were to later eat into the credibility of his government, President Khama allowed a Minister of Finance accused of corruption to not only keep his job but also attend cabinet meetings at the same time that he was in the dock. That anomaly was to later apply to yet another junior minister turned acting senior minister. President Khama was not done just yet. A decision to move the intelligence services (DIS) and corruption busting agency (DCEC) across ministries as a way of resolving bad blood among members of his inner circle left everyone in stitches as did his decision to reappoint his cousin back into cabinet the same day he was acquitted after keeping aside a job for him for the three years that he was at court fighting corruption charges. The most shocking surprise however was when he fully pardoned the cold blooded murderers of John Kalafatis and allowed them to walk straight back into their jobs at the Botswana Defence Force. To this day nobody knows what to make of a cabinet reshuffle that happened over two months ago with which the country has been saddled with three acting ministers and another one whose real title is still to be decided.
But just what kind of person will President Khama feel comfortable with as a successor. A few attributes immediately come to mind. Future insurance guarantees will no doubt be embedded on the schedule of conditions. Because guarantees and assurances will play a big role in determining succession, it means that trust, loyalty and friendship will become key factors influencing that decision. This therefore means that such a person will have to be a member in good standing of the master’s inner circle ÔÇô from beginning to the end. If this is correct [and there is no reason to believe otherwise] it also confirms suspicions that Khama plans to rule from the grave, so to speak.
Which will in turn make his successor a figurehead; less respected by the party and ultimately unable to hold it together, much less control it. But still Khama will inevitably have his way, not just because he has an unswerving hold over both party and government, but more importantly because the decision of who succeeds him is certainly the biggest life and death decision he would have made in the last twenty years. The successor, we cannot reiterate often enough, has to be somebody who knows where the bodies are buried ÔÇô literally and off course figuratively. Among other things, the person so chosen will have to continue providing guarantees of protection against possible prosecution of the departing regime agents, while also ensuring that past secrets and misdemeanours including possible criminal acts are kept under wraps. I have no inclination to share them now, but names of new entrants to the list of possible Vice President hopefuls blow my lungs out with laughter. Significantly though is that they all fit the bill as enunciated above. Of all the names what is categorically clear is that merit has been thrown out through the window. That is how desperate the situation has become. As one close watcher told me, it has all becoming very dramatic.
One would have hoped that lessons had been learnt from the misadventure in Maun that disoriented the ruling Botswana Democratic Party starting from July last year. As it turns out not much has been learnt. A second phase of fight control of the BDP is thus on its way. True loyalists of the BDP, who are in it neither for money it brings nor the connections it sires have a choice; reclaim the party or shut up. It would be insane to expect the plutocrats to surrender without a fight. They have tasted blood. And they know that for them, the future has never been more pregnant with opportunity of ultimate takeover. Stakes have never been higher.
