According to a Press Release from the Afrobarometer, they have released the latest 2014 Round 6, results. The Survey continues to show high levels of public support for the job performance of H.E. the President, Lt. General Seretse Khama Ian Khama. The 2014 survey found that the President’s public approval rating stood at 79%, a modest increase from the 77% reported in the previous, 2012, survey. In terms of political support the Round 6 Survey found that if elections had been held in June/July 2014, 52% of Batswana would have voted for the BDP, followed by 20% for the BCP and supposedly 13% for UDC.
I am using the term ‘supposedly 13%’ because the 13% associated with the UDC is as misplaced as it is misguided. As per the said release, 6% will vote for BNF, 5% for UDC and 2% for BMD. The fact of the matter is that UDC has attracted 5 % of the vote, and for this reason the UDC vote can not be said to be 6% for BNF plus 5% UDC and 2% BMD aggregated together thus making the 13%. UDC polled 5% in the survey period. That said, the results are telling and are consistent with what some of us have been arguing all along as per an article I wrote a few months back in the Sunday Standard that went by the heading: “BDP and ANC on Home Stretch”.
The article was motivated by a certain Ace Moloi from South Africa who had argued that “The African National Congress may rule until the world comes to an end, because our opposition parties are too proud to integrate and present voters with a rationally irresistible political alternative”. I documented as follows: “What however people fail to understand, when Ace Moloi and many other ANC and BDP voters, maintain that they vote the ANC and BDP because ‘we have no other sound alternative’ is that they are not only talking about a united opposition, but sound alternative policies to that of the ANC and BDP”.
I went on: “Our very own ‘ace’ star writer and political commentator Spencer Mogapi in his “Watchdog” column has consistently argued that the BDP will win the general elections. My plea to fellow BDP members is that we should not remain complacent, but go all out to support and rally behind President Khama as the Lead Campaigner. It is important that we continue increasing the popular vote as we had done in the last general elections”. I concluded as thus: “So, imperfect as it may be, I am afraid the ANC is the only reasonable option. And because the BDP and ANC are unparalleled twins, it is logical for a Motswana voter including those closely associated to and with the ANC to conclude: “So, imperfect as it may be, I am afraid the BDP is the only reasonable option”. After Ace Moloi’s article, the ANC went on to win the National Elections. As far back as September 2013, a certain Phaladi Letswamotse ran a story in one of the local newspapers going by the title: “A Bumpy Road for the Opposition Towards 2014”.
Letswamotse’s argument was informed by the fact that out of 18 Council and Parliamentary bye elections held since the 2009 general elections, ‘the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is in a clear after bagging 14 bye elections while the opposition parties got a combined four’ he notes. The wards and constituencies that the BDP won include amongst others; Tsholofelo in Broadhurst, Dibete in Mahalapye East, Tonota North, Shashe Mooke in Tonota South, Boikhutso in Selibe Phikwe, Lenganeng in Tlokweng, Tshikinyega in Mahalapye, Mahalapye West and the Letlhakeng West constituencies, and the victory in Orapa bye elections. It is important to note that some of these victories came amid the formation of the BMD which was an offshoot of the BDP. That the BDP continued winning the bye elections was an indication that the BMD formation has not dented the BDP in anyway.
To further buttress the point that the formation of the BMD has not dented the BDP in anyway, the 52% garnered by the BDP in the latest Afrobarometer Opinion survey is consistent what what BDP obtained in the 2009 general elections. BMD in the interim has managed to score a paltry and miserable 2%. Their misery is yet to play out during the 2014 elections as I hold that all the BMD MPs currently standing under the UDC ticket are most certainly going to lose their seats, and these include amongst others Wynter Mmolotsi, Gilbert Mangole etc. Examples abound. For those who remember well, after the formation of the BCP, whereas 11 high profile MPs decamped from BNF, the said BCP lost all but one Parliamentary seat in the 1999 elections. Only the late Joseph Kavindama made a dramatic comeback. That BMD scored a paltry 2%, whilst BNF 6% and UDC 5% is further telling us that the BMD will not benefit from their participation in the Umbrella. Furthermore the results are telling us that the BNF insignificantly though, would benefit more had they not been part of the Umbrella as within the Umbrella formation they are at 5%. Indications are that there are members of the BNF who will not be prepared to vote with the BNF under the Umbrella rather if it was a stand alone.
I short, the BNF’s participation in the Umbrella has not paid dividends, but will accrue a dismal loss. The UDC lose will be thanks in part to the BCP, which will draw a significant vote from the BMD/UDC nexus thus providing a great opportunity for the BDP to thump BMD/UDC. The BCP should however not feel guilty because they are a standalone Party: its every man/woman for himself/herself. Actually the BCP should be happy that they chickened out of the Umbrella otherwise it would have been disastrous for them. In fact if I were a BCP strategist, I would advise my team members never to entertain the idea of Opposition Unity because it is a waste of time and energy. Imagine what the BNF, BMD and BPP went through in coming up with an Umbrella formation only to score a miserable 5% in the Afrobarometer Opinion Survey. Unless they (BCP) want to throw away their 20% poll in exchange for a paltry 5% in the 2019 elections then they should go ahead with Opposition Unity talks after the 2014 elections. They will have lost the elections yes, but at least they would without question, make up with the Leader of Opposition seat.
In conclusion, we are all agreed that Afrobarometer is widely considered to be the established leader in comparative public opinion surveys on attitudes toward democracy, governance, the economy, leadership across Africa. As BDP members, we should however not rest on our laurels at the sight of the finish line. Whilst it is so near and yet not so far, as the BDP we want to increase our popular vote beyond the 52%.