It is just a few days before the USA elections take place on November 4th 2008. As an economist sitting in the middle of all these debates I could not resist making some observations on what is going on and perhaps more importantly drawing some parallels and lessons for our own developing democracy.
The current Situation of the economy
The most recent estimates as of October 29th indicate that the US economy has declined in the third quarter by about 0.3 percent partly as a result of the global credit crunch which saw consumer spending falling by 3.1%- considered the sharpest drop in 28 years. Personal incomes have declined by as much as 1.6% compared to the previous period.
The sluggish housing market, rise in foreclosures and debt as well as credit crunch have hit consumer confidence and spending very badly. Unemployment has gone up from 4.5% recorded in 2007 to an estimate of 6% currently as companies continue to shed jobs in response to the worsening economic conditions.
The country has continued to have both a budget deficit and a balance of payment deficit. Economists are predicting that with conditions persisting, a bigger decline in real GDP will be expected in the fourth quarter, which will qualify the period as being a recession. Official definition of a recession, varied as it may be, is when an economy has two consecutive quarters in which GDP declines. There is an issue about what these economic conditions mean for Botswana’s economy; which is a topic for another time and another day.
Impact of Economy on current USA Presidential Political Campaign
What has the impact of these issues on the elections been as revealed by opinion polls and in terms of strategy for the campaigns?
For the Republicans, the initial campaign was to avoid talking about the economic issues in favour of digging out personal issues that they perceived would work in their favour. That included them finding all kinds of associations between the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama and people like William Ayers when he was eight years of age, to issues about his lack of experience, and his association with people considered to be terrorists. They even went as far as calling him a socialist (a term that is generally not liked by Americans) for his more radical economic policies. If the opinion polls are to be believed, which I believe they are from past experience, they have indicated to the Republicans that those issues are not that important under the current economic situation.
On the other hand, the Democrats capitalized on the weaknesses of the economy to call for more regulations of Wall Street, propose tax policies that are fair and equitable, new energy policy and generally preach a consistent message that says the current economic conditions are a result of the current economic policies under President Bush Jr. and that it will be a big mistake for voters to vote for the Republicans under Senator McCain and hope for change. That even pushed Senator McCain to denounce his association with the current president, George Bush Jr., when he said to Senator Obama, “If you wanted to run against Bush you should have done that four years ago, I am not Bush.”
Do the people believe the McCain campaign on those issues? Again if the opinion polls are to be relied upon, American voters are saying the issue that McCain is not Bush Jr. does not matter. What matters is that he is a Republican, who will continue the Republican policies that have seen them suffer economically. Currently, the Democrats have as much as a 10 point lead in the polls and pushing the Republicans into a series of defensive tactics that is making them commit more mistakes on the issues.
What is worrying for the Republicans is that they are lagging behind even in states that are traditionally Republican like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Florida, California, etc.
And as the clock is ticking, the gap is not closing, and, if anything, it is widening in some of the states that are key to their winning the Presidential race.
Simply put, unless anything happens like the overplay of the Bradley effect (race), then it has been concluded that the Democratic candidate will win come November 4th. And to the Americans and the whole world it will be a historic moment since Barack Obama will be the first African American President of the United States. In my own opinion, I think foreign policy issues are not the determining factor for the current elections if they have ever been.
Lessons for Botswana’s political campaign.
What lessons can be learnt from these elections for Botswana’s own young democracy, if any? First there are things that I found strikingly similar to our own. One similarity is the use of personal issues in campaigns, things that may not be of interest to the voter and the neglect of what may be vital to the voters. The McCain campaign started on that trail and only got back to the economic issues when it was obvious that those tactics were not working, and to some voters it was just too late.
This to some is what is making them less popular in addition to the negative effect of the economy. I believe most people would agree with me that this is usually the centre of our campaigns; who you are, what you did in the past, and with whom?
I think it is not bad to talk about who you are in terms of things that matter like your experience, qualifications for the position, etc, because those are things that will shape your contributions for the electorates. But definitely not the private and personal matters that have no connection to your ability to deliver in Council or parliament.
There are a number of issues that I find worth emulating by our political campaigns.
One such issue is the use of socio-economic issues in campaigns to win voters on your side. Botswana’s opposition parties do not spend a lot of time telling voters what they will do differently from the BDP once given power. They tend to spend more time talking about what the BDP is doing wrong instead of presenting their own economic agendas. Very few have economic agendas that are clear and consistent.
I think it was this strategy that was responsible for attracting more votes to the BNF in 1994, which they seem to have lost since their break up in 1998. Yes, I do concede that Batswana voters may not be as literate as the American ones on these economic issues, but they do understand how certain policies can make them worse off or better off even without knowledge of a sophisticated economic model.
I must add that even the BDP spends less time talking about their economic agenda. Most of the time, voters are fed with the well-known stories about the past success and not about where they are going in terms of future policies and programmes. Your past record is important for your credibility, but that is not enough to get you votes from voters who are looking into the future.
That probably explains the high voter apathy as has been shown by few people turning up to register to vote or even vote once registered.
A second issue that I think we can learn from the USA campaigns is their focus on the bigger picture and not on individual self-interests. You cannot help but admire the fact that Senator Hillary Clinton lost to Senator Obama in the primaries and is vigorously campaigning for him to win the presidency for the Democrats. On the 29th October for instance, President Bill Clinton appeared at a joint rally with Senator Obama in which he made a very powerful speech in his support for presidency. That is unheard of in our campaigns in Botswana!
Once you lose in the primary elections, the person who won becomes your sworn enemy and you continue to destroy him/her even to your common enemies. Some even switch parties or de-campaign the winner. Why that happens is another issue, but the point is that such tactics are counterproductive. Perhaps if our politicians were more concerned with the bigger picture we would have fewer political parties, and even had at one point stopped the dominance of the BDP in elections.
A third positive lesson, at least as far as people are in support of Barack Obama, is that, it is better to elect people on the basis of what they are capable of doing rather than merely their background.
Not that the Americans have not had their own mistakes on this issue. A case in point is the presidency of Bush Jr. But what is coming out clearly is a belief that people do not become better presidents merely because their parents were presidents.
I hope Botswana will learn this lesson early enough to be able to avoid some of these mistakes. Personally I believe everybody should have the right to be a leader irrespective of parental background as long as they are capable and also should be subjected to free and fair competition with those of not so royal blood. My point is that progress in terms of democracy needs to emphasize merit rather than right by virtue of birth, race or ethnicity.
Fourth, the US electorate is a race of two major parties (Republicans and Democrats) and has been so for many years. That gives voters a clearer and less confusing choice to make than if they have to make a choice between several parties. That, however, does not mean there are no independent voters in the USA, but only to say they tend to be fewer in number.
And this year because of the tense competition in the race, that proportion of voters is declining as the election date draws nearer.
The Botswana situation is characterized by one major party (BDP) and a number of opposition parties, some of whom are only different by name and personalities and not in terms of ideology and economic agenda. Some do not even have an economic agenda at all!
My point is that if only we had fewer political parties, there would be much more progress in terms of election outcomes and even get to the extent of changing parties in Government. That I think will provide a good check in terms of democracy and also reduce the complacency. But that has so far remained an elusive dream as various cooperation initiatives between parties has failed dismally in the past.
* Professor Happy Siphambe is Associate Professor of Economics, UB, currently resident in Kalamazoo, Michigan on Fulbright scholarship.
