Back in the days when I was at high school, my favorite subject was History and my favorite topic was Britain’s stand at the beginning of the Second World War. Britain chose not to align with any side with the notion that in so doing it will be in a safe situation. It looked as though Britain’s stance of isolation was a splendid one and was thus branded SPLENDID ISOLATION. But as the dynamics of the war changed, it became apparent that rather than it being splendid, it was now becoming precarious and dangerously so, thus Britain found herself in a catch twenty two situation and without any other option but to join the war. Britain was then forced to take a decision it had so far avoided, to be an ally to either of the side; this brought the mighty Britain out of isolation.
The repercussions of Britain’s none participation in the war were obviously going to be to the detriment of the allied forces and in the long term to the detriment of Britain herself; thus the imperativeness for Britain to join the war.
Years later I read a book by Jeffery Archer, First amongst equals. This book spoke of four different boys born in the same era, in different backgrounds and different parts of Britain. They had a single common ambition, to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It is the journey to the zenith of this common ambition amongst the four that is the intrigue of the book.
The race for the BDP highest office is just beginning; after Khama who is next? Motswaledi, Ntuane and Mmolotsi have been banished to the BMD. DK, Merafe and Kedikilwe will have long gone over the hill. Nkate, V.T.Seretse and Motsumi are more or less in the BDP archives and are no different from a stack of files beginning to gather dust, never to be reopened again for reference or whatsoever. From my position on the hilltop I only see three probable candidates in the first amongst equals race; Ramadeluka Seretse, Pelonomi Venson Moitoi and Nchi Rammidi. Of course there are also a few hopeful bigots who still have the propensity to test the quicksand, but I still put my money on the three candidates above.
Nchi’s stance so far can be best described as having been quite splendid, like that of Britain before the war. But just like Britain, the splendor is evaporating much quicker than methane spirit. It is fast becoming very untenable, the dynamics are changing and Nchi has to make a decision he so detested and avoided, to choose an ally. His mathematics has led him to no other than the mighty DK and the now defunct Barata phathi.
The future looked bright and Orange for Rammidi but all of a sudden ominous dark clouds are beginning to hover above his head. Of late Nchi is beginning to indicate his hatchling and I take my hat off for him for having the intrepid audacity where few dared. Cowards die many times before their death of course and besides they are mostly carpetbeggars and clowns anyway. That is the stuff real men are made of. He would undoubtedly have a great admirer in Mario Puzo’ Godfather, He would say; “he has em balls”.
One does not grow up with the ambition to be President; it is the dynamics of life that propel you to the ambition. It is when the propulsion makes you opportunity’s neighbor that you decide to be “neighborly”, like Clarence Carter would say; who wouldn’t anyway? Unlike in Jeff Archers version where the race was between four, in my version the race had been much wider, ten to be exact.
Gomolemo Motswaledi, Botsalo Ntuane, Kabo Morwaeng, Tebelelo Seretse, Lesego Motsumi, Jacob Nkate, and Boyce Sebetlela. A couple of years ago one would not overlook this list of seven to predict the future President of the BDP but as we all know they are now all probabilities of the past. This leaves me with only three names, Pelonomi Venson Moitoi, Ramadeluka Seretse and Nchi Rammidi.
There are only two routes for any of these three to ascend to the throne; automatic succession or by the ballot. With automatic succession, Nchi may as well pack his bags and head for Ga Maila. The ballot on the other hand avails a goal scoring opportunity for him, with only the keeper to beat and Mminaphiri being a maverick, has read the bold neon sign, ( STATE HOUSE / OK 1) and he is going for goal.
The biggest obstacle that lies on Rammidi’s path is: whose support is he relying on? I am saying this because there are no more Barata phathi at BDP and Nchi is well aware of the reality that he can no longer rely on his A team buddies. The buddies have proved to be men and women with no conscience, political philosophy or political allegiance to anybody other than President Khama.
They live, eat & sleep Khama and this leaves Nchi with the predicament of seeking those who will support his advocacy to abandoning automatic succession for only that can level the playing field for his ambition to be realized. In soccer circles we normally say, and pardon me but I prefer it in the vernacular, go na le molatedi le paru. Those who are remaining at the BDP are not Barata phathi but di-paru tsa Barataphati except for old man DK of course. Nchi’s biggest dilemma is: can they be trusted? His only hope is that probably they hang on for DKs move, but nobody is certain about that and only time will tell.
That being said only the A team remains at BDP and the A team is not like Barata phathi – they’re like the Cape weather, very unpredictable.
They are individuals who happen to have something in common: endearing themselves to the President, so rather than mobilize themselves behind a capable and deserving Dk and Rammidi, they would rather wait for 2014 to see who the next Vice president (who will ultimately become the next President after Khama) will be. They will rally behind Ramadeluka Seretse. Watch this space, in the not so very distant future Rammidi will now start advocating for a President to be elected and not selected because the method of selection has now become unjust, ruthless, divisive, undignified, unpopular and undeniably undemocratic to him and the majority of Batswana. It will be then that Nchi will get to know what stuff Khama is made of, banishment to Siberia will be an understatement. The big question is; how much support can he garner within the BDP to change this, and my bet is zero. As long as Khama is still at the helm, no mo Domkrag wants to be seen to be going against anything that Khama is advocating for. So by the time Khama is out and Madomkrag can freely howl at Ramadeluka for that change, Rammidi’s opportunity and era for Presidency will be history!
Ramadeluka will turn out to be the first amongst equals. The only difference will be that in Jeff Archer’s fiction his first amongst equals ascended to the throne democratically whereas Ramadeluka’s ascendency will not be through a democratic dispensation. That aside, looking at the manner in which Khama has a phobia for an electoral process, I do not see Khama relenting to election of BDP President during his reign. The man adores artificial conditions. He is well aware of how elections rock boats,(remember Laurent Bagbo’s sentiments) and he wants in future to claim credit in that he quelled the BDP fights during his reign forgetting that he did so very undemocratically. Khama is aware that his solution to the BDP crises is not sustainable in the long term and he doesn’t give a hoot about that. After all when the volcano explodes he will be long gone and will for many years to come be hailed as the best President who quelled factions. I liken him to a man who is aware that he is about to die and goes on to take big loans to maintain an affluent life style in the family only for his children to face bankruptcy after his death and the blame goes to them rather than him.
At the same time the fat lady hasn’t sung for Rammidi. By virtue of now turning around and clinging to DK’s coattail, I presume he is trying to inherit DK’s support base and the big question is; is the base still there and why now? All this time Nchi has been DKs nemesis, so why now? The answer can only be one, like Britain; in the long term Nchi’s position will no longer be splendid but very precarious. He now finds himself compelled to take a decision he so abhorred and avoided – find an ally.
I am sure when Rammidi is alone in wonderland before he goes to sleep every day, he curses they day he went against Barata phathi. It is now that because he is in front of the goalpost and has begun salivating for the highest office that reality is beginning to confront him. But unfortunately for him, the playing field is not level. Nchi cannot stand the poignant feeling of isolation, and the assistant referee won’t let him touch the ball, his flag flaps continuously when Nchi goes into the box. All this speculation is evident from the numerous confessions Nchi has made of late. 1. That the departure of the Barata phathi brought a lot of harm to the BDP. 2. That he was very hurt when Barata pathi jumped ship. 3. That DK is BDP and not Khama as some political bigots perceived. The one confession that awaits Nchi is; to allude to the fact that Barata phathi were very correct when they cried foul over lack of inner party democracy within the BDP, and that he Nchi was naive in judgment. Maybe and just maybe, it may not be too late for Nchi to lobby for change of the BDP constitution and garner enough support.
