The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) leadership is sitting on a secret report that reveals that for the first time in the history of the country the party faces a real threat of being ousted from power. The highly confidential report which lists about 25 constituencies that are likely to be won by the opposition has been kept away from the BDP Parliamentary Caucus and the party Central Committee and is only in the possession of a few members of the BDP Special Elections Committee headed by President Lt gen Ian Khama, Vice President Ponatshego Kedikilwe and Minister Vincent Seretse.
It is understood that the reports lists a number of BDP held constituencies that are likely to be won by the opposition, among them Borolong which is currently held by the Minister of Minerals Energy and Water Resources Kitso Mokaila; Selibe-Phikwe East currently under Minister of Transport and Communications Nonofo Molefhi; Tswapong South where the BDP is represented by the current Minister of Trade and Industry Dorcus Makgato-Malesu; Molepolole North under assistant Minister of Health Gaotlhaetse Matlhabaphiri; Gaborone North under assistant Minister of Trade and Industry Keletso Rakhudu; Mogoditshane under assistant Minister of Education Patrick Masimolole; Bobirwa under acting Minister of Presidential Affairs Shaw Kgathi; Francistown East under Minister of Foreign Affairs Phandu Skelemani; Gaborone South under Kagiso Molatlhegi; South East South under Odirile Motlhale; Tati West under Charles Tibone; South East North under Olebile Gaborone; Kweneng South East under Mmmoloki Raletobana; Letlhakeng West under Ngaka Ngaka; Ngwaketse West under Mephato Reatile; Minister of Health and BDP candidate for Kweneng South is also expected to face stiff opposition from the BNF although the party survey rated the constituency as relatively safe.
This is over and above the constituencies that are currently held by the opposition Botswana Congress Party and the United Democratic Movement (UDM). The BDP elections survey was however conducted before the current crisis in the party which saw a number of BDP incumbent MPs and councilors defecting from the party. According to the constitution, the BDP needs 50% plus one representatives in parliament to retain its position as the governing party, failing which the next ruling party may be decided on the parliament floor through a coalition of parties.