Botswana’s economic prospects look good as all forecasts indicate moving toward a full recovery, both GDP and sectoral, revealed Dr Haile Taye, a research expect with the Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis (BIDPA).
“The Botswana economy has done relatively well in the last 3 years and its prospects seem good, notwithstanding the anticipated recession,” said Taye.
Given the exhibited fiscal prudence and the non-mining sector efforts, Taye said the Botswana economy is likely to bounce back to its potential level of growth as the various forecasts indicated.
“Botswana macroeconomic fundamentals (fiscal, external, monetary and the credit rating status) are all, on the whole, sound and no eminent downside risk except that of Europe,” said Taye.
Unless the crisis in Europe drags on for long and takes the world with it, Taye said Botswana has definitely seen the last of the economic meltdown. “The worst case scenario for Botswana is likely to be slow growth in contrast to the strong growth indicated by all the forecasts,” he said.
Since the stiff reduction in 2009, Botswana’s export revenue and GDP have recovered well. According to the World Bank, Botswana was one of the 11 fastest growing economies in Africa in 2010 and 2011. Botswana’s economy is projected to grow at 4.8 percent and 6.7 percent in 2012, and 2013, respectively.
Its GDP grew by more than 5 percent in both 2010 and 2011 and is expected to grow by about a similar rate in 2012. All the sectors also improved over the last 2 years relative to 2009.
Taye said the global economy is gradually gaining momentum, but the recovery is fragile, extremely uneven across different regions and could be derailed by the crisis in the Euro zone.
“What transpires in Spain, Italy and even France in the next few months, and how the EU will handle the crisis will influence the prospect of recovery,” said Taye.