Leader of Opposition, Dumelang Saleshando says he intends to bring a motion of no confidence in the October sitting of parliament.
He should not expect a single vote from the ruling party backbenches.
The best a few of the ruling party MPs would be to privately express solidarity with the opposition.
But they would certainly never vote with opposition.
That is what a number of them have been doing lately. They say one thing on the parliament floor. And when it comes to what matters which is voting, they simply do not vote claiming they were not available at the time of voting.
The reason for that remains the same as it always was – every ruling party Member of Parliament aspires to become a cabinet minister. This is madness, but it gives the president added power as through that he’s able to dangle a carrot that a next reshuffle might give some of those in the backbenches a chance.
But Saleshando should go ahead anyway. A motion of no confidence is a symbolic gesture.
The late Kenneth Koma used to table it when there were fewer than five opposition members in parliament to vote with him.
There is a bigger reason why Saleshando should table this motion.
Things have not been going well for opposition.
The opposition is embattled. And the Saleshando motion might just give them the much needed shot in the arm.
It seems like the opposition troubles are more structural and deeply fundamental than could be attributed to personal deficiencies of leadership.
The opposition are just refusing to tell the nation exactly what they stand for.
There has been too much sleaze and corruption in government, yet the opposition has been unusually mute.
The opposition has not done enough to highlight the general incompetence, mismanagement and wastage across government.
The general feeling is that Botswana is sliding deeper and deeper into a one-party-state.
And in a big way the opposition should take the blame for this because they effectively ceded all territory to the ruling party.
Voters make electoral judgement based on what they consistently hear being repeated by political parties. Over time such messages become part of the value system attached to those parties.
Botswana needs to change. And the opposition should be part and also catalyst of change that needs to happen.
Opposition needs to work really hard to get itself associated not with the past but with the future.
That way it would be relevant to a majority of young people who are groping in the dark in search of a future they are beginning to suspect has been stolen from them.
Opposition needs to show dynamism, vibrancy and most importantly enthusiasm in their interactions with the voters.
So far they have often come as damp and totally unconvincing on an assessment of whether they really could be a safer bet for the future.
Ongoing unhappiness against ruling party and government would in normal circumstances be seen as a boon for the opposition.
Yet the opposition is not doing much to seize such an opportunity.
The opposition is totally inept – failing in every way to capitalize on the groundswell of popular disapproval against the ruling Botswana Democratic Party and the government.
The opposition is in a state of paralysis.
Obviously their activists would read this and come to the conclusion that I am as usual aimlessly evangelizing.
But it’s a lot more than that.
A majority of our people have deep and genuinely held feelings of exclusion and victimisation.
They are frustrated and they feel government behaviour is dispossessing them of what rightfully belongs to them – especially land. Check you people at Ramotswa and also at the Okavango.
The underemployed and unemployed feel totally forgotten and even neglected.
Yet the opposition is at the moment failing to inspire confidence that if given a chance to run the country they could do things better than the current government.
It cannot be enough for the leader of the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change Duma Boko to offer his legal services to people like Moruti Tiego or dissenting wrappers like ATI and Ozzy.
There has to be a strategy in place to ensure the opposition ambitions dovetail with all the growing discontent.
More than legal services, Boko should provide political alternatives.
He should harness public resentment and turn into a cleverly packaged political message.
He should tap into the disgruntlement and showcase what he has in store for the nation.
So far UDC and indeed all its partners like Botswana Patriotic Front and the Alliance for Progressives have been shamefully lame and bland.
I wouldn’t say they are discredited because as a collective their brands are genuinely respected.
But what is clear is that the nation has moved way ahead of them.
All the actions by ATI, Thuso Tiego, and Ozzy have been spontaneous one-man shows.
This is what happens when people give up on political leaders.
All the actions by ATI, Thuso Tiego, and Ozzy have been spontaneous one-man shows.
All the opposition does is to turn up at police stations to offer disjointed sympathy with the arrested.
The opposition guys are flatly refusing to seize big opportunity thrown under their laps.
People are clamouring for change in their lives. And nobody seems to be listening.
The opposition is struggling on many fronts.
It is not unusual for them to undergo some form of instability in between elections.
But now something worse seems to be afflicting them.
Organisational incoherence is shocking, even by their own standards.
Ordinary members watch on in helpless bewilderment.
Leaders seem unsure and even disinterested. It is like something is stifling them or even pulling them back from making even small moves.
They are right now at a low point. The ruling party is for the taking, but they opposition are in disarray.
Unless the opposition change their way an even bigger tragedy awaits them in October 2024.
And once again there will be tears.
The UDC is still recovering from self-inflicted wounds that started in a badly handled call for reform by one of the partners, the Botswana |Congress Party. The BCP has to its credit since climbed down, but bad blood and a simmering lack of trust continue.
The tragedy of the whole thing is that opposition clearly does not have a plan.
Moruti Tiego appears more focused, more believable, more consistent and better organized than the UDC.
Sympathy for those mistreated by police is all good. But it’s hardly a substitute for political strategy.
