There is palpable impatience on the part of key players to get both the ruling party and its government on track.
The two sides are of the same coin, but for a while they have seemed to work independent of the other – with the other side not knowing what the other was up to.
Time is of utmost importance. And it is running out.
The coordination role falls on Boyce Sebetela, the Chief of Staff.
Last week there was a big noise of him getting embroiled in hard partisan politics when he met and addressed a ruling party committee.
Even for a clear-sighted Sebetela, this kind of mistake was inevitable.
It is a sign of the pressure he is working under.
He works too closely to the border line separating party and government.
We should retain the hope he does not believe civil servants meddling in party politics is a winning formula for his party.
Even as the line often gets blurred, retaining the two separate has always been sacrosanct.
We once participated in a television debate with Mogomotsi Kaboyamodimo wherein he argued that there is no difference between ruling party and government. I was left shocked and disappointed.
Kaboyamodimo as we all know is now in the wilderness, spurned by both ruling party and government.
It will be interesting to know what his view is now on the matter. That’s a matter for another day.
Based on what little snippets we have seen so far about Sebetela’s job description, it falls squarely on him to be a link between party and government, and more importantly to ensure that electoral pledges made in 2019 are fulfilled.
From my reading of the events on the ground, the ruling party continues to have an edge over the opposition. But it is no longer the same like some months back when the opposition was literally failing to gain traction.
In fact out of disillusionment more and more people are once again beginning to listen to the opposition – a far cry from the situation that prevailed when we entered the 2019 General elections when President Mokgweetsi Masisi was literally walking on water.
Today fewer and fewer people are able to take his word for it. He has preferred to run a government largely on bluster and hyperbole.
Lack of institutional accountability remains a big blight.
It is his disapproval rating that is actually propelling the opposition into new territory out of the abyss from where they have struggled since the general elections.
There are however still public concerns on whether the Duma Boko and Dumelang Saleshando duo would make good leaders for the government and country.
An ordinary voter, who is not aligned to UDC is still finding it hard to relate to either of the two men.
The onus is on them to reach beyond the opposition voter.
They need to do more to prove they are ready for government.
They need to climb down their high horse and start talking to average voters, addressing their fears and more importantly allaying those fears.
No political party wins power solely through its card carrying members.
In fact in 2019, the ruling Botswana Democratic Party was to a big degree voted by the Botswana National Front card carrying members and also traditional BNF or opposition voters. Duma Boko has to find a way to bring these people back if he is to keep hopes of taking power alive.
It will not be easy, but not as hard as it was in 2019.
If the BNF leader can sufficiently convince these people to come back to his side, then we have a contest in our hands, otherwise another electoral calamity awaits him.
The grand coalition that carried Masisi into power in 2019 has effectively collapsed.
The coalition included first-time voters, but also like we say, traditional opposition voters.
This was a tenuous coalition that could not be trusted, especially if material conditions on the ground changed.
Covid-19 and its effects on the economy has provided just such conditions.
For many of the people, personal loyalty and fealty to Masisi was never strong to start with.
These are the voters that will take a first opportunity to turn their back on Masisi and even give Masisi a bloody nose, if they have to.
It just happened that these voters thought at the time he was more believable or even trustworthy. That trust would very easily be eroded if they happened to question aspects of the way he governed post elections.
And that seems to be the case.
The coalition was solidified by among other things a strong rejection of what was perceived to be former president Ian Khama’s aggressive attempts to rule from the grave.
The alliance catapulted Masisi to power, but on its own, this coalition never provided much political capital – at least not a reliable one.
For many of these voters Khama is now a none issue. And they watch with irritation the ongoing squabbles as underhand attempts to put him back on the ballot box.
General incompetence in government has driven away many of these voters.
There has been a series of unforced, self-inflicted errors by government.
But it would seem like there is some turnaround on that front.
There is no discounting former President Ian Khama altogether.
For better or for worse he is now in exile.
Khama’s fight with Masisi has dealt a deadly blow to Botswana’s myth of exceptionalism.
Their two-step-dance has been both a source of shame and a rude unveiling of the veneer of our often exaggerated democracy.
The cracks and the imperfections are now in the open; there for all to see.
With the Constitutional Review taking shape, next year offers some respite, unless another big fire flares up.
A storm is brewing on the direction our president has opted to take.
It might in the end seem like it was yet another unforced mistake on his part.
Botswana has a fast changing demography.
His supporters musty be hoping that in appointing his commissioners, he took cognizance of the demographics.
Any political party that does not internalize these demographics and make them an integral part of their big data and analytics is doomed to fail.
In reacting to Masisi announcement, opposition too should carry along the big components of the voter who shall be calling the shots in 2024. It is a dicey situation, fraught with risks. And big rewards in the end if done properly.
This is the last edition of the Sunday Standard this year.
We wish all our readers a Merry Christmas and a happy New Year.
Enjoy. Do not indulge. And keep safe. See you in the New Year.
