The vigor with which His Excellency (HE) the president of the Republic of Botswana, Lieutenant General Seretse Khama Ian Khama, fought for the abandonment of elections within all the structures of his ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) for use of the so-called compromise list system (the system), has made some people wonder whether he will relinquish power when his aggregate term of ten (10) years as state president ends as per s. 34(1) of the Constitution.
In this article, it is argued that HE’s vicious fight for the system; the BDP’s leadership vacuum; the rise of the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD); the envisaged opposition alliance and the perceived militancy and radicalism of the opposition may make it convenient for HE to amend the constitution to continue his presidency beyond his term.
In defending the system, HE has relied on the fact that it is provided for in the BDP constitution and that the BDP structures endorsed it. His strongest reliance, however, seems to be the latter. He ensured the system’s victory at the recent BDP electoral congress by appointing one of his strongest critics and grassroots controllers, Daniel Kwelagobe (DK), as its lobbyist and assured him retention of his position of party chairman. When another of the system’s critics, Hon. Kentse Rammidi, waged a vicious war against it and even resigned his assistant ministerial position he was tamed by being included in the list as Secretary General. It is common cause that if he later becomes belligerent and reneges against HE’s control he shall suffer expulsion from the party as his elected predecessor, Gomolemo Motswaledi, now BMD president, did. To further silence and tame his adversaries, HE nominated his one time rival and party stalwart, Hon. Ponatshego Kedikilwe (PHK), into the BDP Central Committee (CC).
Considering that HE relented to calls to abandon a more democratic way of electing party office bearers because of the majority vote, the question is can he resist repealing presidential term limits if some people call for such. It appears to me that he may relent to such calls. He may call for a referendum on the matter and considering his personality cultism in rural areas, and the BDP’s misuse of the government media and government’s pet projects he may win it.
So, just like academic turned government propagandist, Dr. Raphael Dingalo, appeared incongruous when he argued for the introduction of the compromise list system in the BDP about three years ago, former Member of Parliament (MP) and cabinet, Oliphant Mfa, may not have been absurd when he, at almost the same time, suggested a constitutional amendment to repeal presidential term limits. It may well have been HE’s ploy to test the waters.
In fact, now that HE has tamed such strong contenders for the presidency as PHK he may easily sell the theory that if he does not continue beyond his term there shall be a leadership vacuum and the BDP may lose power. In fact, he may be right in this regard considering the fact that age has caught up with his most logical successors, Vice President Lieutenant General Mompati Merafhe and PHK. The former’s chances have also been significantly reduced by poor health. While one time presidential hopeful, Jacob Nkate, cannot be ruled out, his chances have been diminished considering his current political banishment. HE’s cousin and former Minister of Justice, Defence and Security, Hon. Dikgakgamatso Ramadeluka Seretse, obviously a threat to HE because of the surname ‘Seretse’, may also have his dreams of succeeding HE quashed if he is convicted since he is currently facing prosecution. This may be the reason why HE did not save Hon. Seretse from prosecution despite being able to do so by influencing the Directorate of Public Prosecutions (DPP) or presenting favorable evidence in his favor if it exists. It may also be the reason why HE readily accepted Hon. Seretse’s resignation from cabinet, but kept the Minister of Finance and Development Planning, Hon. Kenneth Mathambo, in cabinet despite facing a similar charge. Party stalwart and one time heavy weight David Magang’s chances are also nonexistent considering his age and the fact that he is not in HE’s good books. Though a sitting MP, Khama’s brother, Tshekedi, is probably more interested in business than politics. So is his twin brother, Anthony.
HE may also use the BMD’s rising popularity and the envisaged opposition alliance to scare the BDP members of the possibility of the BDP losing power if he is no longer president. Considering its campaign line ‘There is no Alternative’ and its popular saying ‘Domi ya rona le bana ba bana ba rona’ loosely translated to mean (BDP is for us and our children and grandchildren), BDP, or Domi, as it is affectionately called by its supporters, cannot afford losing power to the opposition. The party can, therefore, buy into HE’s call to amend the constitution so that he continues in office if that would avoid the opposition taking power. After all, HE was brought into the BDP from the army following a prophecy that without him the BDP would lose power. HE himself or his allies may only need to spread the belief that such a prophecy has not yet been fulfilled for the constitution to be amended to allow him to continue as president.
After all, the BDP has already shown its preparedness to change the law in order to gain political leverage from it. An example is the bill presented to parliament to amend the law to debar Councilors from defecting to a different political party with their seats. While this is in itself a noble amendment and has long been advocated for even by the opposition, it is common cause that the BDP is only amending the law because it is losing councilors and the control of city, town and local councils to the opposition, especially the BMD.
Also, considering the militancy and radicalism the opposition is alleged to have shown during the recent public unions’ strikes and their so called illegitimate call for regime change, the BDP has managed to sell the propaganda that if the opposition assumes state power Botswana shall become lawless and lose the peace and stability it is internationally acclaimed for. HE can use this to justify continuing in office beyond his term. His father, the late Sir Seretse Khama, and his successor, Sir Ketumile Masire, successfully used the very propaganda during the cold war era by alleging that the late Dr. Kenneth Koma of the Botswana National Front (BNF) would destabilize the country given his communist propensity and alliance with such communist countries as Russia. Even beyond the cold war, HE’s predecessor, Festus Mogae, used the same propaganda to discourage Batswana from voting for the BNF.
