I hereby christen the opposition coalition: One Voice Coalition (OVC) ÔÇô in Setswana: Ntswelengwe. They don’t have to adopt the name, but to me it will remain their nickname. They have hitherto been many voices, but now they have harmonized their song into what Luther calls “a beautiful symphony of brotherhood”. They are one voice. The BDP publicly professes to be unafraid of the One Voice Coalition; privately they are running scared, so scared that they would sacrifice normal elections during their congress for a compromise list ÔÇô just to have a semblance of peace in the party.
Currently the OVC has 16 seats in parliament. Which ones are they likely to win 2014 elections? To answer the question we must consider the BMD factor which wasn’t part of the equation in the previous election. In other words, we must admit that the BDP has been weakened in various constituencies in varying degrees. All BDP MPs who won with a margin of less than 1000 votes are in danger of losing the next election. These are: 1. Charles Tibone (Tati West); 2. Phandu Skelemani (Francistown East) 3. Shaw Kgathi (Bobirwa) 4. Nonofo Molefhi (Selibe Phikwe East) 5. Lesego Rakhudu (Gaborone North) 6. Kagiso Molatlhegi (Gaborone South) 7. Patrick Masimolole (Mogoditshane) 8. Gaotlhaetse Matlhabaphiri (Molepolole North) 9. Liakat Kablay (Letlhakeng East) who had a margin of 25 votes! and 10. Maxwell Gonnamang (Letlhakeng West) who won with a margin of 34 votes! If the coalition won these ten, they will have 26 constituencies assuming that they do not lose any of the constituencies that they currently hold. What must be considered are also constituencies which though won by the BDP by over a margin of 1000 votes, could have been lost to the BDP had opposition parties approached them as a coalition and here I can only think of one: 11. Robert Masitara (Gaborone West North) who is a goner in the next elections ÔÇô a onetime wonder or blunder, depending on how you see him! There are also a couple of constituencies which will be fair game in the next elections, that is, they could go either way. These are 12. Tshelang Masisi’s Francistown West and 13. Mmoloki Raletobana’s Kweneng South East. If the OVC won all of these, this will push them to 29 constituencies of the 57 constituencies, assuring them of state power. However the coalition must be careful that in their advance that they do not lose any of the constituencies that they currently hold. Are there possible losses? Yes, and these are 1. Kgalagadi North in the hands of the BNF’s Philip Khwae who beat BDP’s Victor Motobake by 5 votes! 2. Kgalagadi South held by John Toto who beat Neo Moroka by 144 votes in the past elections. This means that for the coalition to win they must hold all of the current 16 constituencies in their hands. What is critical to remember is that elections are not won on absolute majority, but on constituencies.
This means that it is critical for the coalition to focus on winning constituencies instead of fighting for an overall national majority. If not careful the coalition could win an absolute national majority and still lose the 2014 elections! The other matter to consider is all sorts of freebies which may be extended towards Batswana as we go towards 2014. The current government flourishes on giving Batswana freebies and not really creating lasting wealth across the country.
Much of Botswana’s wealth is still in foreign hands, whether they be Chinese, Indians or Europeans. Batswana are generally poor. To insulate Batswana against the effects of their extreme poverty the government has established all sorts of social cushions amongst these being Ipelegeng, free education and medical care and the Internship program. The Internship program ensures that the unemployed graduate busies himself or herself with something, creating a false impression of employment. The same is true for the unemployed Iplegeng worker. So, as we move towards 2014 freebies will be increased. Only yesterday we heard of yet another one: people who earn less than P3,000 monthly will henceforth not be taxed. I envisage that between 2012 and 2013 we will have significant salary increases and the justification will be to compensate for past lack of increases in the past ÔÇô when the true reason would be to purchase the 2014 election. Increasingly Btv, Daily News and Radio Botswana will show the president dishing out freebies, as he did to the sorry Lobatse lady, and no one knows why that was news worthy or as he did to the poverty stricken old ladies of Tlokweng. The great leader is still to appear kissing children’s rosy cheeks and distributing more free blankets and wheelchairs. Roads are still going to be built which were not planned for. Gifts and more gifts of houses are going to be beamed on national television. Office of the President is still going to attack the private media reports. Since it is clear that they cannot stop what appears in the private media, the OP now is ready to rebut reports, political or not, which show the president or country in bad light. Additional attacks towards opposition parties and private media may also be pushed through seemingly independent persons such as leaders of the army, police, dikgosi, the clergy, and certain academics. The road to 2014 will be bitter. Interestingly though, while others are looking to 2014 for a decisive victory, the truth of the matter is that victory will be assured this side of 2014. 2014 will just be the end.
