A belated happy New Year to all and I wish this nation some comforting and productive developments over the course of the coming months in this year. As we begin the year with numerous hopes and anticipation of what we would wish to see unfold for the good and progress of this nation, events stick themselves out to dominate local news for various reasons. Amongst the issues that continue to dominate debates in the media (electronic, print and social), are the future of opposition politics, particularly, whether or not the Botswana Congress Party should join the Umbrella coalition in its present form or any other cooperation model that the involved parties may establish consensus on.
Secondly, and related to the first, is the opposition approach to the coming weekend’s bye elections in the three council wards of Moshupa West, Ngware and Goodhope. Questions around whether this is an opportunity to indicate willingness to cooperate have been thrown around and these includes who should give way to who between the BCP and Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC). Lastly, there are a few happenings within the Botswana Democratic Party that points to two seemingly contradictory overtures. First is the inbuilt but potentially explosive matter of fighting for the soul of the party for the leadership, especially the chairperson’s position and secondly, there is the very quiet but loud enough message of a party that seeks to reconcile with itself and position better for future stability.
The debate around possibilities of BCP-UDC cooperation continue to dominate media outlets and there are all sorts of scenarios been tossed around either justifying the need for cooperation or why BCP should continue its re-branding as a party capable of turning the tables come 2019. The leadership of the party seems to be adamant that the party has the capacity to face the future and its continued existence and relevance is in no way tied to joining or not joining the umbrella project. This position is maintained even in the wake of simmering from some of the party members whose convictions and beliefs had been shifted by the 2014 election results.
Of late there are reports of some of the youth leaders at the University of Botswana who have openly thrown the challenge to the party by crossing over to the UDC and extolling other to see the UDC as the natural home and hope for future opposition politicians. There are reports of the rank and file who are said to be joining the UDC in a number of constituencies and this poses as a challenge to the party leadership’s resolve to want to grow the party going forward. It remains to be seen if indeed the reported movement of party members outside the leadership structures will have any bearing in the long term position of the party towards opposition cooperation.
It should be noted that even when the party seems to be willing to shoulder on outside the opposition coalition of the current format, the BCP is also on record to have said they are open to exploring possible cooperation, most probably different from the umbrella model. This remains to be put to test by time and it is a development that some of us are eagerly waiting for. A spanner in the works is the reported fear from the BCP that there is a possibility that members of the UDC, in particular those from the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) could possibly re- trace their tracks to the BDP and this makes the BCP somehow suspicious of the long-term sustainability of the UDC project. This is for me an unlikely development that should not worry the BCP (assuming this is indeed one of their fears) because I want to believe that if there were any BMD members harbouring intentions to re-join the BDP, those have already done so. I want to believe that the current leadership of BMD presents itself as well disciplined and committed not only to the BMD course but more importantly they cherish and are grounded on the UDC project.
There have been debates about the need for the UDC and BCP to show willingness and commitment to possible future cooperation by giving way for each other in the coming bye elections of three council wards. Those pursing this argument present a long term benefit as opposed to the short term one. It is argued that if both avoid the inward looking or self-interest based considerations, they could all look at the numbers from the elections and allow whoever was ahead between the two to contest with the support of the other party. The short term consideration would allow each party to field wherever it chooses without due consideration of what the last results say in potential for victory. It is common knowledge that as we speak the bye elections will take place this coming weekend and both parties have made decision to contest or not contest on the basis what they consider to be their party principles and intentions. The choice of whether to participate or not as well as the results of the bye elections will enter the fray in becoming issues of consideration as the debate about possible cooperation gains momentum.
Lastly, reports suggest a possible polarising fight amongst BDP cadres for the leadership of the party in the coming congress. At stake is not just the fight for the central committee positions or even the chairperson’s position, but more importantly some argue, is the implications and meaning of the central committee on two major issues. The first probably more visible issue is the effects of the leadership choices at the congress, particularly the chairperson on the much talked of succession plan of the party and government. It is this that many believe will polarise the fight for the chairmanship of the party, especially that to this point unlike in the past congresses the persons branded about as front runners to the chairperson position seem to not include the current Vice President of the BDP government. If this unfolds in this manner, it is sending a clear message of what the succession plan may or may not entail.
Parallel to the above is clear messages of the need to re brand the party beyond 2019 and this includes for some reclaiming the party from a derailed course and putting on board the more grassroots type jockeys to ride the horses.  It is a position that may pity democrats against each other and this may also have implications on what the more traditional or conservative democrats want to accept as the more party friendly succession plan as opposed to self-based interests. We will watch developments on this matter with interest for it has implications not just for the BDP but for the nation at large, in the event of a BDP victory come 2019.
