The bids for the three National Radio Broadcast licenses officially closed at the end of May. We now wait to see what is going to happen, who gets awarded the license and who does not. What is almost a certain is that applications must have been submitted in their numbers. Batswana are eager to get into business and the market size is no barrier.
On a serious note though, I was actually surprised when I read the invitation to apply.
Firstly it gave potential applicants a period of just a few weeks to put together a business proposal; secondly the National Broadcasting Board (NBB) intends to issue three National Licenses in one swoop. I am still wondering to date if the NBB knows something that we do not.
At the moment we already have three Commercial Broadcasters, RB2, Yarona FM and GABZ FM. Of the three only RB2 broadcasts nationally, Yarona FM and GABZ FM are restricted to broadcast in Gaborone and environs only, in terms of their license conditions. Should the latter two stations fail to secure the National Licenses then there will be a further three broadcasters bringing to four Commercial Broadcasters nationally, and six over Gaborone and its environs.
I have mentioned this before, but relating to television, a Commercial Broadcaster relies solely on advertising and programme sponsorship for its revenue. Their growth is therefore directly related to the growth in advertising spend in the market. With the trend in economic growth over the past three years it fails me to understand how the two private commercial radio stations would have grown to an extent where the market is now big enough to accommodate three more stations. It is also common knowledge that there has been negative growth in the none mining sector of the economy since 2002/03.
It appears that by its recent pronouncements and actions the NBB is firmly focused on creating a competitive broadcasting environment, which is very good, but they should also ensure that such competition does not kill the very industry that it regulates.
I do not think this is the Board’s intention, but unfortunately this is the most likely outcome. Unless of course if they are going about licensing Yarona FM and GABZ FM to go national the round about way, where they publicly call for applications just to comply with some requirement or want to be seen to be transparent.
At face value , this “experiment” by the NBB looks like a disaster in the making; listeners and advertisers are definitely going to be spoilt for choice, and advertising and sponsorship rates will no doubt take a tumble, but unfortunately with some of the privately owned stations.
The Regulator has the duty to carry out market assessments and should know the ideal number of broadcasters who can compete profitably. I have a serious doubt that if such an exercise was carried out , its end result would have be the issuance of three more broadcasting licenses.
Let me give the NBB credit and assume that they carried out a market analysis and found that the market is mature and profitable, and is in need of more commercial broadcasters, and they decide three is the number to go with. A few years ago BTA had also carried out a similar analysis and found that Gaborone is in need of two more commercial radio stations, which led to the licensing of GABZ FM and Yarona FM. Analysis by both authorities would therefore have come to the conclusion that there should be six Commercial broadcasters in the country, four National and two in Gaborone.
If however the later study by NBB indicated that it is no longer viable to restrict broadcasts to Gaborone only then it should have only been logical to amend the two already existing Gaborone licenses to allow for National broadcasting without having to subject the holders to go through another application process, but rather negotiate terms of amendment with them.
Should this not be the case, then it will mean that the BTA study still holds, and there is still room for the two Gaborone broadcasters. In the event that one of the existing licensees gets the rights to go National, then I can only assume that their Gaborone license will be surrendered and re- issued to another interested party.
Simply put, can the NBB say at this moment how many commercial radio stations licenses are there going to be on issue in the country after their adjudication process.
Without any “ifs” and “ buts” it is SIX., three new plus three existing.
I hope this is not a scenario similar to the Restaurant Boom of 2002 unfolding. Then, Gaborone had only a few very profitable Restaurants for years , and the market was suddenly flooded with the opening of more than enough restaurants when RiverWalk, Game City and Molapo crossing opened. I need not mention how many of those restaurants still exist in their original form. Unfortunately this sad scenario could not have been prevented as this market is not regulated and anyone who wants to open a restaurant can do so provided he meets certain very basic Council requirements.
Going back to broadcasting, I think this may be an opportune time for the NBB to level the playing fields. Who ever gets awarded the license to go national is going to be required to put up their own infrastructure while there is an existing public infrastructure which they could utilize. RB 2 which enjoys the monopoly of being the only National Commercial Broadcaster has never had to invest but just rode on the back of the existing Radio Botswana infrastructure.
Why can we not allow private broadcasters to do the same? Or maybe it is about time that the mandate for the development, control and management of a national transmission grid is ceded to an independent body which can then provide a service to both the public and private media.
