From the figures released late last year by the Central Statistics Office, all indications point out to what may turn out to be a strong economic rebound.
The problem though is that it is a recovery solely based on diamond sales; the same commodity that, in the first place, drove Botswana’s economy into what has turned to be the worst slump in living memory.
There is nothing inherently wrong in Botswana making money from diamonds.
In fact, over the years, proceeds from diamonds have been used to essentially bankroll this country.
And for that we should forever be grateful. In fact, there is little debate over the extent to which diamonds have been a boon to Botswana.
Having said that, what we should always bear in mind is that diamond mining on its own will never create enough job masses as to be able to uplift the country from current unemployment depths.
By its nature, diamond mining is capital intensive, which is why even as we celebrate the fact that Debswana shareholders have committed close to P25 billion as capital for the expansion of the Jwaneng mine, we are painfully aware of the fact that there will be very little spin offs flowing from therein in the form of job creation.
The fact that even the most optimistic estimates put any gainful employment likely to be derived from this mammoth capital investment below 2000 drives home the fact that even as we welcome diamond driven recovery we should not deceive ourselves as a nation into believing that by the same token such a recovery will be accompanied by jobs.
Even before the advent of the economic meltdown, Botswana already had unemployment that was unusually high for a country that has enjoyed such a high economic growth sustained over such a long period of time.
The economic slump made matters worse as companies, including the mining sector, shed jobs as international demands for their products shrunk.
Things came to a head following a decision by Government to freeze all new appointments as a way of saving money to pay costs brought about by the new Public Service Act.
While the effects of the downturn have no doubt been painful as to be tragic, the silver lining in there is that driven home the urgency with which we have to reform the economy of this country.
We want to point out that whatever economic reforms we adopt as a nation will be meaningless if, at the centre, there is no admission that we are a small population, whose future can only be sustainable if it is export-driven, and for goodness sake we mean exporting other things beyond rough diamonds.
It is only when our national economic strategy is underpinned by a desire to export that we can reduce an overweening reliance on commodity while also ensuring that we create industries that can employ critical masses.
While past attempts at manufacturing have not at all yielded results, it would be reckless if we folded our arms in despair and not come up with new initiatives.
Economists have also pointed at Botswana’s immensely impressive comparative advantages, were the country to concentrate her efforts on the route of the services sector.
There is no reason why we should adopt any one sector at the exclusion of the other.
The important thing is that we should try to do everything in our power to ensure that as the economy recovers, it also brings substantive directive benefits for many of our people, many of whom have been without a job long before the downturn set in.
For these people, the figures released by the Central Statistics Office, which by all accounts point to a recovery will be all the more meaningless if such a recovery does not bring with it employment.
Thus, while we welcome the good news of possible recovery (however frail and uncertain), we do so with the full knowledge that such recover will not mean much for many of our people who are out of work.
