In last week’s edition of The Telegraph, Botsalo Ntuane wrote, ‘…to deliver a decisive push against the BDP in 2014, all the eggs in our collective basket should be protected’. This statement was a response to an earlier article by Spencer Mogapi, and the excerpt above and a few lines that would follow sought to explain BMD’s position on incumbency amongst other things. As Botsalo Ntuane points out, if it were up to BMD, all constituencies and wards currently held by all negotiating partners would be a safe haven for the incumbents in the 2014 general election.
It is generally accepted that incumbency provides the office holder with some advantages when it comes to running for a new term. Opposition parties in Botswana have argued time and again how the President, Vice President and to a lesser extent Cabinet Ministers and Members of Parliament enjoy the benefit of incumbency and its associated advantages. However, it is important to note that general elections are still held despite what the opposition says is an uneven playing field. BMD however, preaches a new type of benefits, where because of incumbency, political competition is obliterated through negotiations; and the electorate gets never to be given an opportunity to decide on who they would want to nominate. Under ‘BMD’s incumbency rule’ representatives would be enforced by an undemocratic process. Is the behaviour by the BMD acceptable and shouldn’t citizens of Botswana be concerned by this wish, at this early stage, of their leadership and negotiation team, to want to subvert democratic practices all in the name of perpetuating a stay in office?
To seek a golden ticket via incumbency could be that the BMD realises that they could have a tough time should they opt for primary elections against their political partners. If the BCP and the BNF adopt the incumbency proposed by the BMD, the biggest losers, when taking past electoral performance into consideration, will undoubtedly be Messrs Jerry Rasetshwane, Vain Mamela, Lepetu Setshwaelo; all of the BCP and possibly the BNF in Gaborone South West constituency. These three gentlemen lost to the BDP, and the margins of loss were 676, 476 and 345 respectively. The BNF paid a heavy price in Gaborone West South for the vote that went to the two candidates who both had the BNF genes.
The BCP as well as the BNF must know that not all BDP voters in those constituencies defected with their MPs and so are naturally inclined to believe that if ever there was a chance to win these three constituencies, it would be in 2014. For the BCP, returning one parliamentary candidate in 1999 and 2004; and garnering 5 parliamentary seats in 2009 is a perfect springboard for 2014 and no one can blame them for thinking this is their best opportunity to gain an extra three seats. Such thinking would take cognisance amongst other things of the split vote that has for a long time riled opposition which this time around, will work in their favour, as the BDP vote is split.
The split vote of the BDP is something BMD must also know very well seeing that not all members of the BDP jumped ship with the ‘young turks’. This presents an unknown risk of the potential loss of the constituencies that BMD holds, first at primary election within the umbrella, and subsequently at general elections. So when faced with a dilemma about whether to act in a democratic election of candidate the BMD chose to act in an autocratic manner of ‘BMD’s incumbency’. The political constraint that stands in the way of BMD having their way is the desire to go the primary election route by their partners. If not, there is a big chance that we would see a rendition of what BMD does best ÔÇô to place insurmountable demands.
It is fair to assume that whilst members of the BDP, the leadership of the now BMD met and produced a lengthy list that had endless demands. We need not forget that this is the same BMD that in choosing its leadership, went to a congress and endorsed a compromise list save for the Presidency and Treasury. The BMD Presidential race, never for a moment allowed the credentials of Sidney Pilane to be displayed let alone be tested; nor did they avail him the room to show his ability.
Gomolemo Motswaledi had enjoyed the benefit of being the interim leader. The only place where we have had an opportunity to experience Sidney Pilane is through his well articulated articles. Whilst I might not agree with him, the gentleman has an innate ability to put pen to paper and make almost anything believable. On the other hand, Gomolemo has attempted to write some articles and one that sticks out is a poor attempt to talk about the education system and the repeated mention of a lost generation. I know that Gomolemo excels in an expansive Setswana vocabulary; singing and conducting choirs; and poetry, a skill he brilliantly displayed in one of the private radio stations recently. As a leader, I have always had my doubts and the alleged internal wranglings of the BMD should start to bear testimony to my doubts of his leadership abilities. I am also aware that he was voted on several occasions to lead the BDP Youth Wing and it is only fair that one states that sometimes factional voting can take anyone to the pinnacle of any organization whether capable or not. In my view, his leadership at NYEC, was nothing but below mediocre. Anyway…this isn’t about Gomolemo Motswaledi but what is emerging to be BMD’s way of driving their intended outcomes whether they enjoy the support of many or not.
The BMD has also laid claim to being a movement that represents progressive Batswana; individuals who one would assume have a keen interest in being represented by an able politician to meet their aspirations. BMD’s representatives have also earned praise of being the wisest beings to ever come out of the BDP .This ability, when placed on a parliamentary candidate, should go with higher probability to retain a vote. Thus, the presence of the current BMD leaders should also be enough to deter competition. This assertion to a higher measure of intelligence is also documented in the CSIS report where the representatives went on record to claim a higher level of education than the current crop of leadership within the BDP. Given all the above mentioned, why should the BMD push incumbency?
‘BMD’s incumbency’ is going to eliminate the hopes of opposition aspirants who so wished to contest the primary elections for the umbrella. This undemocratic tool by its nature is nothing but an imperfection that bears the hallmarks of the beginnings of dictatorships. It is rather surprising that the biggest advocates for this systematic tool to eliminate competition are none other than the BMD, a party which in its early formative days preached intra-party democracy and on the flipside anti-dictatorship or anti-compromise as its flagpoles. Clearly Botsalo Ntuane as an individual or the party as a whole, in endorsing ‘BMD’s incumbency’ contradicts the one principle that they sold. What the BMD is asking for is inconsistent with the democratic ideals and will never give the membership an opportunity to hold their officials accountable, at the first instance through elections. What it will propagate is only to aid the sitting candidate and in effect oppose the wish of Rasetshwane, Setshwaelo and Mamela, just because their leaders have been sold a tool that desecrates a democratic equilibrium.
Botsalo Ntuane, in his submission, writes that incumbency would protect all. I will make no secret and state that as a member of the BDP, I want a very strong opposition, which in its selection process, can also bring competent politicians to the fore. Should incumbency be adopted, we risk a situation where we could be stuck with the same lot until 2024, all at the mention of protecting that which is in the basket. Looking beyond intra-umbrella dynamics one can’t help but wonder if this desire to alter and push an agenda that favours the suitors will not be used, SHOULD the umbrella succeed in unseating the BDP, even in altering existent electoral process, all in the name of retaining seats.
The phrase ‘marginal propensity to consume’ when expressed in economic terms points to a spending pattern of an individual. This tends to increase directly proportional to availability of disposable income. Simplified, we do see the gradual transition from Chibuku to Castle Lager and ultimately Johnny Walker Black Label when money ceases to be an issue. Range Rovers and sometimes lavish trips to Khutse Game Reserve can accompany a life when money is existent in abundance. The same principle of propensity to act is seen with serial killers. Past the first murder, subsequent murders are nothing but another moment to satisfy the desires of the doer’s ego. Similarly, in politics, once certain existent principles are no longer supported the propensity to systematically and structurally eliminate competition increases. We have seen this time and again with past dictatorships known to all of us through history. Eliminating political opponents got easier by the day, until they were eliminated by the same tool. Should the BCP and BNF buy into incumbency, then they should expect an even bigger claim going forward. As for Batswana…ijakg! Ke tshaba le go bua.
It is surprising that these democratically elected leaders want to use methods of suppression to enhance their chances of returning to parliament. These are the leaders who just a few months ago sang the ‘dictatorship’ tune to the BDP for endorsing the compromise list in the build up to the 34th National Congress held in Mahalapye. Should incumbency be used this time, chances are it will still be a condition in 2019, all in the excuse of protecting the basket. Like Lee Kwan Yew said, as quoted in Minchin (1990:285), ‘repression is like making love. It is always easier the second time.’ If you think incumbency is not a threat to democracy, then reconsider because it definitely removes a comeback threat.
BMD cannot advocate protecting a group of individuals without acknowledging that certain democratic ideals will be lost. Better yet, they need to come out of the closet and state whom they really are because contradictions might cast aspersions on their following about the sincerity of their existence. I have never bought the BMD story and some things are coming out to cement my initial position. The BMD has within its ranks people who are undemocratic in nature that when checks and balances are not in place, they can quickly develop into autocrats. ‘BMD’s incumbency’ is the second indicator. This is only a beginning, but should we start to ask if we are seeing the beginning of autocracy within the BMD.
