The Botswana Defence Force is reported to be one of the most professional armies in Africa but just how powerful is it? How, for instance, does it compare to the Zimbabwean army which, according to media reports, it nearly fought at the height of the stand-off between Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai in 2008.
We won’t know the answers to those questions for as long as BDF is not included in the Global Firepower (GFP) rankings. The latter has created a “Power Index” on which an army’s relative military strength is calculated. The index is based strictly on a nation’s potential conventional war-making capabilities across land, sea and air. GFP says that nuclear capability is not taken into account; geographical factors influence every country’s ranking; ranking does not solely rely on total number of weapons available;
natural resource reliance (use and production) is taken into account; land-locked nations are not penalised for lack of a standing navy; naval powers are penalised for limited naval capabilities and, current political/military leadership is not taken into account. The final ranking incorporates values related to resources, finances and geography from which over 50 different factors are compiled and measured against each nation. Low oil consumption yields a bonus while high oil consumption is penalised. Around the time of Botswana’s stand-off with Zimbabwe, the government is said to have approached the United States for arms of war and related military equipment to help prepare for an expected attack by Zimbabwe. Botswana is not ranked by GFP but its 2014 report which came out last Thursday gives an idea of how much firepower would have come from across the border. A total of 106 countries make up the GFP ranked list and Zimbabwe is placed at position 95. The latter’s army has access to a manpower of 5.4 million people, 3.1 million of whom are fit for military service. Additionally, some 307 420 Zimbabweans reach military age on an annual basis.
Zimbabwe’s army has 325 armoured fighting vehicles and a total of 92 aircraft with 10 fighters/interceptors, seven fixed-wing attack aircraft, 26 helicopters and six attack helicopters. GFP says that “despite the advances made in battlefield technology, oil remains the lifeblood of any fighting force.” Zimbabwe, which has no proven oil reserves, consumes 15 000 barrels a day.
Civilians and physical infrastructure are as important during war and according to GFP, the size of a country’s labour force “is a reflection of possible wartime industry strength.” Zimbabwe has a labour force of 3.9 million, roadway coverage of 97 267 kilometres, railway coverage of 3427 kilometres and 196 serviceable airports. “Regardless of military strength in numbers, war is still driven by financing as much as any one leader or weapon,” GFP says.
Zimbabwe’s defence budget is $95 million, its external debt is $8.8 billion, its reserves of foreign exchange and gold amount to $575.6 million and its purchasing power parity is $7.2 billion. Land war also factors in a country’s geography. In Zimbabwe’s case, the relevant geographical values are a square land area of 390 757 km and 3066 km of a shared border. According to the GFP rankings, the most militarily powerful nation on earth is the US, followed by Russia. GFP calculates a country’s military strength on the basis of publicly-available information which is analysed and distilled into intelligence by its experts.
