For a fleeting moment, since mid-last year all indications were that the Botswana Democratic Party was going to unravel.
The ruling party split, occasioned by Botswana Movement for Democracy, promised the era of a strong opposition. There were even hints of a possible a change of government.
The formation of BMD rattled and sent shivers down the spines of our ruling elite, an arrogant group that has not known anything but state power.
For the first time in a very long time everybody in opposition behaved well, making the right noises as the only song in town was that of opposition cooperation.
BMD emerged into the most hospitable of political environments.
When the party was conceived not only was there widespread disenchantment within the BDP, Ian Khama and Daniel Kwelagobe, the two most powerful politicians therein were not talking to each other – literally.
It was a time when the BDP was at its weakest, in every meaning of the word.
After aiming for 70% of the popular vote, the ruling party could only garner 53%, the lowest in the juggernaut’s near 50 year old history.
The opposition in Botswana had never had it so easy. The euphoria was simply immeasurable.
Even the BMD founders talked blissfully of how they to were overwhelmed by the over-pouring goodwill.
They too had not expected such public excitement.
It’s too early to start writing off BMD prospects, but the very foundation on whose shoulders those hopes were etched is beginning to look suspect. And increasingly so!
BMD is already mismanaging expectations.
And lest we forget the troubles start even as BMD members have never ever had an opportunity to choose who they want as their leaders.
Stillborn is the word that immediately comes to mind.
They current BMD leaders are in their positions by virtue of their hatred for the BDP ÔÇônigh, Ian Khama and less by what they want to do for their party.
The more one hates Khama, the higher their position in the BMD hierarchy, or so it looks.
Last week alone, I received close to five calls, all from different people who by all stretches I consider apolitical. Everybody is worried by the direction that BMD seems to be taking. The anxiety has always been there. Only it was, for a long time hidden under some mysterious veil.
But the second postponement of the long awaited inaugural congress has got everybody talking.
People are openly comparing BMD to COPE, a splinter outfit of the African National Congress in South Africa that went on to wilt away before it could even stat to make any impact on the political makeup of that country.
COPE, we learn, was a victim of a fierce in-fighting and intolerance among the leaders. The similarities between COPE and BMD are too remarkable to be dismissed out of hand.
People are worried that BMD is COPE in the making ÔÇô at least that seems to be the key information people are getting.
A growing number of people fears that some BMD leaders would kill the party if they do not get their way or get elected to certain positions.
But even without allegations of infighting BMD no longer seem a natural shoo-in for the BDP.
They have kind of lowered the bars.
The ambition and the fire that were so much an integral character of their existence are no longer there.
The tragedy is that by failing to hold such a milestone congress, the BMD has succumbed to the BDP attack line that they are not ready to rule.
“There is still no alternative,” I can hear the voices of BDP mascots reverberating in my ears.
If BMD does not up the game again, the same mascots will soon be saying ‘better the devil you know’ as they migrate back to the BDP.
Perhaps this is the curse that every opposition grouping in Botswana has been condemned to.
To their credit, having been roused from their slumber after the split, the BDP is on its finest survival mode in a very long time.
Perhaps Ian Khama was right afterall when he said the BDP has never been short of ideas.
But how did BMD end up in the mess that it finds itself today?
For all the feel-good excitement the party exuded after its formation, serious strategic mistakes were made.
The party allowed perceptions to simmer for far too long that the public faces we saw at political rallies were actually not the ones calling the shots ÔÇô that Gomolemo Motswaledi and his group are just monkeys while real organ grinders sit somewhere in the shadows, pulling strings.
The party has also concentrated too much on what it was not and less on what it was.
Inordinate lengths of time were wasted talking about Ian Khama and less about formulating a policy.
There is nothing wrong with rejecting Khama while embracing BDP politics. But the extent to which BMD sought to portray Khama as a one-eyed devil was to me not only an overkill but also overly irresponsible.
The questions that now remain is can the BMD reinvent itself? Can they start punching again?
By the way to recover, they not only have to punch they have to start working really hard.
There is no doubt that Motswaledi is a great political brand, but politics, I’m afraid is much more than just branding. It’s important that he starts showing his managerial side of things.
There are fears that he may be a good man who unfortunately is tragically out of breadth in the hurly-burly of politics.
I may be wrong, but then where is the congress?
