Botswana may be increasingly regressing from its longstanding commitment to political and economic freedoms – the Fraser Institute has warned.
In a special chapter that forms part of the international think tank’s Economic Freedom of the World for 2023, it notes that Botswana’s political and economic gains made over the years are being reversed.
It says this is due to, among others, “alarming stories coming from Botswana over recent years.”
The Fraser Institute found that, “the stability of Botswana’s political system, coupled with some good leadership choices that were underpinned by external constraints limiting the elite’s decision-making, provide a more robust explanation of the origin and extent of Botswana’s economically liberal policies after independence.”
The report subtitled “The Origin of Botswana’s Liberal Policies and Their Contemporary Unravelling” noted that “This finding could have immense contemporary importance as many of the constraints that once bound the Overton window through which the government of Botswana could implement policy have become increasingly insignificant.” The Overton window is a political science concept that represents the range of ideas the public is willing to consider and accept.
According to the report, “The unravelling of these constraints may explain some of the alarming warning signs we have seen from the nation in recent years; from United Nations concerns over the nation’s human rights records, warnings of rapid backsliding in the area of civil and political rights, and increasingly hostile political infighting.”
It said the findings of the chapter could have immense significance for Botswana’s future. “Namely, the factors that promoted stability and those that constrained the Overton window of leadership decision-making in the decades after independence have become increasingly insignificant,” the report said.
The Institute also found that “a comparatively high 2.9%, Botswana’s military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is the joint third highest in SSA (Sub-Saharan Africa).” Although a military-led coup is unlikely today, the report says: “This factor was not present in Botswana’s first 11 years of independence.”
The Canadian based think tank further found that while Botswana “has not declined precipitously in any area of the EFW (Economic Freedom of the World) data in recent years, the nation’s economic freedom has largely stagnated or, in some cases, marginally declined since 2005.”
Indeed, the report says, “nation’s overall EFW score in 2021 is 6.81, only slightly above its 2005 score of 6.71” adding that “Even more discouraging, Botswana’s score in Legal Systems & Property Rights has steadily declined from its peak of 6.37 in 2005 to just 5.91 in 2021.” Similarly, it says, for Size of Government the nation reached a peak of 6.90 in 2012 and has declined by 0.52 points to 6.38 in 2021.
“However, despite this relative stagnation and, in some cases, marginal declines there are increasingly worrying signs from the nation, in part due to the unravelling of pre-existing constraints and stability that may undermine the nation’s freer future,” the Fraser Institute says.
The Fraser Institute cited a United Nation’s Human Rights Council’s Universal Periodic Review (UPR), saying, “Botswana’s human-rights record was examined for the fourth time in May 2023 (the first, second, and third being in 2008, 2013, and 2018).”
It says: “The UN has criticized the nation’s human-rights record, and more than 30 UN member states made recommendations for how the nation can improve; many of these focused on increasing freedom of expression, press freedom, and ensuring the protection of opposition politicians, journalists, and activists.”
Also citing the US State Department, the Institute said the Department “identified many human-rights issues in its 2022 country report, which highlighted examples of the arbitrary arrest of opposition political figures, and abuses committed by security forces, including dispersals of peaceful protests.”
The Fraser Institute also found that the factors that may have once promoted stability are also less prevalent today.
“First, the BDP’s[Botswana Democratic Party] vote share has declined from an average of 72.2% from 1965 to 1989 to 52.7% between 1994 and 2019. Indeed, in 2019, the main opposition party, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), which is an alliance of Botswana’s predominantly center-left parties (including the BNF, BPP, Botswana Congress Party, and Botswana Movement for Democracy), received a vote share of 35.8%—the second largest for any opposition party in Botswana’s history, despite being formed only seven years earlier (IFES, 2019).
The increasing uncertainty of success in the next election may play into the theory that less stable leaders are more likely to adopt extractive policies — especially if they have no independent source of wealth outside of politics.
Furthermore, significant rifts among the Botswana elite have occurred in recent years.
These disputes are perhaps best highlighted in the recent arrest warrant issued for former President Ian Khama, self-exiled in South Africa and his claims that he has been the target of three attempted poisonings including the government of Botswana’s claim that Khama is trying to launch a coup.
After he left the BDP in 2019, Khama launched the Botswana Patriotic Front and, although the party joined the UDC in 2022 (thus potentially increasing the UDC’s vote share in the next election in 2024), it independently won three seats in the 2019 election, all in the Khama family’s home region—further indicating some possible regional splinters.
In conclusion, the “chapter has found that good, although often constrained, decisions by the ruling elite, coupled with political and socio-economic stability, have been the driving factor in the implementation of liberal policies in Botswana.”
“While the alarming stories coming from Botswana over recent years have yet to result in a significant impact on their EFW score, the unravelling of the constraints that once helped ensure good policy decisions, along with the stability that once underpinned them, is a concerning development,” the report says.
However, the Fraser Institute found that “that fundamentally, policy choice rather than historical determinism is the origin of Botswana’s economic success.” For this reason, it says, “with the right policies going forward, there is an opportunity for Botswana to transcend its current stagnation and excel once again.”
