Something deep inside me has always led me to suspect that the ruling party is very much a burden on President Ian Khama.
Last week’s Gallup Poll results, which put him over 80 percent in popularity ratings, have literally vindicated my suspicions.
As per the last election, the ruling Botswana Democratic Party could only get 52 percent of the popular vote, well below the 70 percent target that the President had set his followers.
As per the Gallup Poll, it’s now clear that if President Khama’s name appeared on any of the ballot papers, he could exceed his own dream target.
The wide variance between the president’s and party’s popularity ratings cannot go unnoticed.
In fact, the variance is so wide that it should be a cause for concern.
What it means is that the President is effectively detached from the party.
The wide variance means he may be pulling them with him, but certainly is not one of them.
If there ever was any doubt about it, the BDP should now wake up to the fact that it owes its current lease of life, however slim, to the big man at the top.
It’s correct to assume the President’s popularity is rubbing on to the party. Just how much, we shall never know. We may also assume that if he was leader of a popular party, Khama’s ratings would be hovering somewhere around the 100 percent margin.
Thus, the question that every party member should ask themselves every night before going to bed is just where the old juggernaut would be without Ian Khama?
More to the point, just what does the future hold after he has left the scene?
For now, life might be all the easier, for all they have to do is to continue doing the President’s bidding, not much because he is the leader and the party exists at his grace.
The BDP is piggy-bagging on one man, and that is infinitely dangerous.
While the ordinary souls would no doubt be celebrating the official confirmation of the President’s popularity, I suspect the more discerning party strategists will for their party be worried.
I have read somewhere that cheerleaders were beating the drums at the figures of the President’s popularity.
My opinion is that all sophisticated BDP members should find this gruesome truth hard to swallow.
Khama’s immense popularity, in the face of diminishing party fortunes at the polls, should frighten those whose long term vision is premised on the BDP remaining in power.
Such people should be unsettled because it can never be good news for an institution to be at the mercy of just one individual ÔÇô however beloved the individual.
The Gallup Poll has exposed the true frailties of the BDP.
In Lesotho, a sitting Prime Minister has more than once abandoned his own party, formed a new one and yet continued to hold office.
If Khama really feels fed up with the BDP, as he has so often felt in the past, just what stops him from playing around with the law to continue running this country without the consent of the BDP?
Khama got where he is, not because of the BDP but despite the BDP.
No wonder in the last elections a deliberate decision was made to have his picture appear overlooking all the party contestants even as he was personally not involved directly.
He has used his popularity to enforce unity in the BDP, not so much because he needed the party, but because of sentimental attachments he has to it.
In the future, it’s well possible that someone with no such attachments will end up in a position similar to Khama’s. And that person will have no reason to spare the ungrateful BDP.
He could do what the Lesotho Prime Minister has done on at least two occasions.
We have to seriously consider allowing for direct elections of the President.
There is something inherently wrong with a political system that puts so much inordinate power on one individual who does not have a direct link with the voter.
With his popularity and with that, his position guaranteed, President Khama should use his advantage to bring about changes that will increase the power of the voter.
He should instigate electoral changes that would lead to direct election of the State President.
There is nothing to be philosophical about when talking about the direct election of the President.
What we are referring to is individual people standing in a queue to elect a president of their choice. The same way they do with their Member of Parliament and their local councilor.
The Gallup Poll has presented a new set of reality. It is a reminder that Botswana voters no longer vote for the party. They vote for individuals.
Otherwise how can it be that a leader could exceed the party he leads by well over 30 percent in popularity rankings?
All it means is that Khama’s popularity is his and his alone. The moment he exists the political scene he will leave with it, and the party will have to fend for itself.
