Botswana could face a major agricultural and food-security shock if projected El Niño conditions materialise, with livestock losses potentially reaching P1.17 billion and cereal production falling sharply.
The warning is contained in a research paper by Oratile Joyce Lesiapeto, a researcher at the Parliament of Botswana, titled Projected Impacts of El-Niño on Botswana 2026. The paper models the impact of an El Niño cycle expected between October 2026 and March 2027, based on a 5% increase in average temperatures and a 25% decline in rainfall.
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