The ruling Botswana Democratic Party is constantly looking over its shoulder.
They are worried at just what the Umbrella for Democratic Change is up to and what it might one day wake up and do.
Yet today, the UDC is at weakest point it has ever been in its entire history.
The BDP worries are mainly a result of two things.
First the BDP leaders are well aware that they have fallen too far short of expectations on implementing the electoral pledges they had made ahead of the last General Elections.
Secondly, the unease that now borders on panic has got to do with the knowledge, too often reluctantly acknowledged of just what the UDC is capable of.
Much more than the UDC leaders themselves, the BDP activists are abnormally aware of the potential of the UDC brand.
Here the credit goes not to UDC, but to the BDP for such a correct and sharp awareness of the expansive potential of its opponent.
This is critically correct today because we live in an era of an electorate whose loyalty is perennially shifty.
Even some of the BDP adherents do not vote their party candidates at the polls.
Thus, keeping the UDC down permanently is an absolutely sensible strategy for BDP planners and strategists.
The BDP is not leaving anything to chance.
And nowhere is this clear than with their media drive.
From a distance it looks to me like going into next year’s General Elections, the BDP want every journalist and every editor to be on their side.
The media drive is informed by an obsession to control the narrative, and not a yearning to get the story out.
The best hope for the BDP, and this is not realistic by any measure is that the UDC would remain in a coma until October next year when the elections are expected to be held.
They’re just hoping against hope.
To a casual reader, it might seem natural that a ruling party checks its pulse by always paying attention to events inside the opposition.
With the BDP it is much more than that.
It is not just a cursory or even routine check of the opposition. It is an obsession. Or should we say a paranoia signaling that the ruling party is really worried for the future because either it is unsure of itself of sure of itself or knows the UDC strengths.
The BDP behaviour is not that of a government party just content with containing the opposition.
It is a party intent on keeping the opposition down – by whatever means.
For the ruling party, if in trying to contain the opposition then somehow it gets wiped off the surface of the earth, then so be it.
The UDC has been by far the most portent alliance of opposition parties that came closest to removing the BDP, or at the very least giving the BDP a run for its money. And don’t forget the BDP has a lot of money to run for.
In its various incarnations since it was formed, the UDC also brought Botswana closest to a more meaningful political bipolarity than has ever been the case.
Going against a ruling party in Botswana is not a child’s play.
The ruling party has all sorts of patronage and largesse to dispense.
Government tenders and contracts, especially the big ones that are part of the development budget are often used to finance not just the ruling party but also its big guns.
Up until recently when the country was blacklisted, Botswana has had very loose anti-money laundering regulations.
In Botswana a state president is God on earth.
That much was confirmed by the Court of Appeal in a case of Gomolemo Motswaledi against Ian Khama.
It has become an article of faith that what the president says goes.
Whichever way you look at it, the current administration is a direct scion of Ian Khama. Perhaps that is why he continues to be consumed by guilt at the very thought that it continues to be in power.
The BDP, unbeknown to itself has created a binary political choice. – when it is not the BDP then it is the UDC
That on itself works for the BCP, especially when the ruling party infinitely gives in to incompetence such as now.
Ironically the very target of this excessive power does not show any sense of urgency.
While BDP is already on an elections campaign footing, the UDC is yet to decide what is various components will be.
Mmegi could not have put it any more succinctly when this week they said the Botswana Congress party has its one leg in and one leg out.
I often think it is worse than that.
The BCP has gone. And there is no coming back.
They are held back by two things; a fear of mandatory elections if they leave on their own. And also a burning desire to cause more confusion and inflict maximum damage to the UDC before officially bowing out.
