Opposition parties went into the Bophirima ward by-election divided when the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), an influential contracting member of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) snubbed the By-elections Memorandum of Understanding signed in 2020 and fielded its candidate.
Ultimately, the UDC won with 335, followed by the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) with 245 and the BCP with 238 votes. The by-election had generated considerable media attention hence attracted huge national focus.
The main focus was in gauging the performance of the BCP outside of the so-called people’s project. While the BCP came out last in the contest and also taking cognisant that in our political system the winner takes it all, the BCP was presented as the biggest loser in a way that made the UDC bigger than its constituent parts. The by-election was christened as a contest between the BCP and the UDC.
The by-election was presented as an opportunity for parties to showcase their organizational acumen and the strength of the people’s project minus the ever confident BCP. This kind of analysis makes for more interesting probabilities, assuming this basic pattern holds up. It is an analysis that that has the hall marks of fools chasing dying for fake gold.
The media presented the results of the by-election as a national litmus test for voter preferences and party appeal to the voters. Their argument was that the by-election should be interpreted in the context of recent past by-elections, totalling about 13, of which the UDC comfortably scooped 10.
In that context and taking cognisant that by-elections generally serve as a testing ground for political parties and a safe predictor of the results of the next general election, a complacent conclusion was that the UDC was on sustained stroll to whitewash the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) at the 2024 general election.
The results were somewhat sugar-coated and authoritatively presented as a sign of voter rejection of the BCP. The significance of the by-election was evident in the manner in which the UDC became bullish and assured in spite of the unconvincing win. Indeed it was moral victory that unfortunately left the winners punch-drunk with delight and satisfaction that they trounced their member party.
Whereas there are always many interpretations of any occurrence, it is fundamentally misguided to portray the results of a ward by-election as a reliable pointer to what to expect in the next general election, mainly because of the localized nature of a council by-election. However, the truth is that, the result gives some hope to a united UDC and signal trouble for the ruling BDP with implications for its strategic response.
Some years back, the BDP lost two council by-elections in Tumasera/Seleka and Mmathethe to the opposition, losses that really worried the party. At the time the leadership of the BDP feared that there were some of their members who were colluding with the opposition.
The BDP then dispatched a probe team to investigate the party’s loss in both by-elections. The then party president Dr Khama even threatened that such people would be barred from contesting the party’s elections in future if they are adjudged to have sabotaged their own party.
The BDP would go on to recapture the Mmathete ward at the subsequent general election and Tumasera/Seleka ward in a by-election in December 2021, perhaps owing to a kind of a Marshall Plan they devised to get back what they had lost to the opposition.
Readers are reminded that the BDP has a history of waking up from the dead and winning when least expected. Those who write them off do so at their own peril and the 2013 Letlhakeng West parliamentary by-election is testimony.
Going into that parliamentary by-election, many people including the media predicted victory for Filbert Nagafela of the BNF which was backed up by other opposition political parties and the trade unions. Botswana Democratic (BDP) candidate Ngaka Ngaka won the vote with a sizeable margin to the dismay of political analysts and the media.
Many people were convinced that the BDP was dead and buried which perhaps explains in part why opposition supporters and sympathizers were more than convinced that the BDP had cheated at the by-election.
We have seen the BDP winning when a loss seemed the only natural and obvious thing. However, opposition parties have not tried much to understand the BDP’s ability to resurrect when they looked down and out.
After they lost Ledumadumane council by-election, the BDP leadership was reported to have asked both the regional and branch committees to submit official evaluation reports that would be used to determine the causes of its dismal performance.
This is similar to the probe that the party instituted after they had lost both Tumasera/Seleka and Mmathethe wards. It is safe to state that such internal investigations helped the BDP to recapture the said wards.
Whereas the BDP has made it a habit to evaluate their performances and identify weaknesses and/or probe unlikely losses in order to understand reasons why their own members would want to sabotage the party, the UDC on the other hand resisted doing a standard evaluation of its performance at the 2019 polls and would certainly not be bothered to do a thorough probe of BCP’s decision to field a parallel candidate for the Bophirima ward by-election.
The coalition’s leadership penchant to binge-drink itself into a stupor of minor, localized slim victories mirrors a behaviour that is inimical to sustained growth that guarantees regime change.
It is always much easier for the ruling parties to regroup and charm the voters to stay with it mainly because many people are apprehensive of regime change, even after decades of dictatorship and full blown corruption.
It is a fact that economic variables are the best method of gauging voter preferences. For instance, when the national economy is doing badly voters are likely to punish the ruling party without necessarily approving of the opposition in keeping with the maxim that opposition parties do not win elections, ruling parties lose them.
The ruling BDP just have to turn a few things around – reaffirm its commitment to combat corruption, petty crime and unemployment and this is doable.
At the other end of the spectrum, the opposition have to battle with low levels of public trust in addition to the gruelling mission of convincing the sceptical masses that they are a credible and viable alternative to the dominant BDP.
In reflecting on the Bophirima ward by-election, one gets the impression that the opposition collective is unable to recover from their victory hangover and are still gloating over the tragedy of the BCP.
The coalition’s supporters have allowed themselves to be consumed by silly, narrow-minded dishonourable politics and have become architects of malice, spouting insults with reckless abundance and engaging in high-octane false prophecy at the behest of their self-seeking leadership.
This speaks somewhat poorly of an alliance formed for mutual benefit. This is not the time for the coalition to overrate itself, become arrogant and condescending. This is not the time for the coalition to exaggerate the result of single council ward and make it look like it were a referendum on the BDP rule.
Bophirima ward by-election has revealed the extent to which members of the coalition’s contracting parties hate each other and have become genius in the realm of barbarity. In fact, the UDC has become more of a poison factory of political extremism in ways that bear vulgar politicians.
All said and done, the UDC must seriously introspect to address the concerns raised by some contracting member parties. The painful truth is that the alliance is struggling to consolidate its growth mainly because it has assumed the persona of loose girl who changes partners like she changes her panties.
When the BCP showed interest to join the umbrella project, the UDC got into a kind of an imposing courtship dance that had the potential to irritate other members. The UDC got as intimate with the BCP as to see no value in other contracting members, leading to the suspension and eventual expulsion of the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD). As history would repeat itself, UDC is busy courting the newer Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) and seemingly pushing aside the BCP. The UDC is also seemingly brushing off the potential value of trade unions in ways that make the coalition to footslog backward like the hummingbird. Indeed, the more things change the more they stay the same!
