The ease with which former president Ian Khama left Botswana for South Africa was proof enough – if any such proof was ever needed – of what some of us had for some time suspected, that Khama was always a step ahead of his opponents inside the mainstream government.
Since leaving government Khama has worked harder, with remarkable success, at positioning himself as the opponent of government.
During that time, Khama has been running what has often looked like a shadow government – resplendent with own security, own financiers, own foreign service, own media apparatus and own intelligence services.
He has created something much bigger than just another centre of power.
Armed with these resources, he is still able to expend some form of largesse and patronage.
Mogomotsi Kaboyamodimo, officially the head of the Khama Foundation, has become a big force behind the Khama shadow government.
And the mainstream government has struggled with little success to contain him.
It is important to state it upfront that when he left Botswana for South Africa, Khama did not flee.
He went out through a designated entry point, crossed the border and had his passport stamped by officials.
He reached the border post driving in government vehicles, surrounded by his security detail.
From the pictures of him at the border that circulated he looked calm and pretty relaxed as he chatted to people who were posing for selfies with him.
It was only after he had crossed the border that Botswana government, through the Permanent Secretary to the President said he left the country without informing him.
By that time the intelligence services were scrambling and scouring to make sense of what had just happened.
There is one thing with which I agree with the former president on. There are people who want him to flee the country. This has been my opinion long before he said it himself.
My heartfelt opinion is that he should not flee Botswana.
That would give his opponents what they are looking for.
If he does not come back, as its beginning to look ever more increasingly likely, that would feel like early Christmas present to them.
Ian Khama has been out of the country for three weeks now. And that is probably the longest time he has been out of Botswana since the days when he was a military trainee.
Quite predictably, those three weeks he has been away have been an open season for misinformation and disinformation. It has often sounded and felt like a show trial of him in absentia. Or worse, a kangaroo court.
“Khama knows what he has done. That is why he is running away,” is the narrative his detractors have now started to plant on the public psyche.
This will become a much stronger and frequently repeated mantra in the next few weeks.
This is exactly why from early on I was against Khama leaving the country.
I sensed he will be treated like a fugitive – not a refugee.
There are serious risks for Khama if he returns.
One of his associates has said to me recently that their biggest fear is a mistake happening that could lead to him being killed, especially government security agents.
That cannot be ruled out.
“Those guys are shockingly clumsy,” were some of his words.
If he comes back, Khama is very likely to go to jail.
This time he cannot hope that this “arms of war” case will be bungled like it happened with the P100 billion madness. So much about the risks.
But there are even bigger rewards for him and his followers if he returns.
His followers need him to keep holding the sky from falling on them. That a big task that only he can effectively do.
He has done that exceptionally well since leaving office – for them becoming an unlikely bulwark against government excesses.
Khama followers need him here at home to keep the fires burning.
His energy gives many of them the kind of hope they need.
His presence, the sheer sight of him traversing the country, taking president Mokgweetsi Masisi head on has a distractive and destabilizing effect on the country and government.
But it reassures his followers and indeed the opposition in general that power is within their reach.
The lengths his people are often willing to believe Khama is only comparable to the extent they are prepared to take the bullet on his behalf.
Both are the stuff of fiction.
Such people need him here so that a psychological process to undermine a Masisi-led government continues unabated.
Make no mistake, I am wholly awake of the personal pain he must be going through.
There is no doubt that he longs to here – at the thick of things.
The temptation will be strong on him not to come back. There is under the circumstances no guarantee that he will get a fair trial, not least because of disturbing red flags we have recently been observing play out on the part of our judiciary.
Repeated attempts by the intelligence services to search his property in his absence is a bad omen.
But still too many people are holding their breath.
A lot is invested on Khama personally being the unofficial public face of all opposition against Masisi government.
To this end, even the disgruntled ruling party members wish Khama well.
They want to know what is happening to him.
Is he safe?
Is his security guaranteed?
Not all of them are his followers.
But they will still take serious approbation at the slightest indication that Botswana Government wants to hurt him.
But all of them will detest even an inkling of anything that looks like he is being hounded out of the country.
Ongoing confusion about whether or not he is ever coming back is not altogether in government interest.
Power is all Khama has known all his life. And Khama likes staying relevant.
He cannot imagine the world moving on past him, or worse without him.
Now in what might turn out to become self-exile, a lack of power must be palpable.
But still a lot of what Botswana will become still rests a lot on him.
For him leaving Botswana will be a most difficult decision to make.
I still hope it is a decision he can resist, because hounding a former president out of the country is a mishap that will hang like an albatross on the neck of our country.
Khama’s self-exile will hurt Botswana much more than his alterations with Masisi when both of them are here.
A Khama self-exile will make Botswana truly just another African country.
And that is the next worst thing after a coup.
In exile, he is likely to become public face of international resentment against Botswana.
For those praying that he does not come back, we say be careful of what you wish for.
South Africa has been kind to Ian Khama – so far.
He has access to SABC and the air time he gets on the South African public broadcaster would be a source of envy for many Heads of State.
This irritates an army of spin doctors surrounding the president. The best they can do is fret.
They can’t control SABC the same way they control Botswana Television
Competence inside government has been discernibly improving.
Let’s face it government today has a much better handle issues on key much.
We are yet to know it that can be attributed to the arrival of Boyce Sebetela as the Chief of Staff.
Arrogance, once a hallmark of this government is generally down. Ministers truly want to learn, and more importantly are approachable.
But accusations of tribalism and regionalism continue to hurt this government.
Sleaze is another charge they are unable to altogether put behind them.
In parliament they have been remarkable in standing up to the opposition motion of no confidence on the president.
Most outstanding was, not surprisingly Eric Molale who has become their indisputable engine room for issues of government business.
But it was on corruption as a talking point that the opposition was most believable.
If the rule of law can be resorted, corruption clearly fought and Constitutional Review is handled with a semblance of fairness and inclusivity – not soundbites, then half the job would be done.
These are the issues for which Khama supporters need his voice here.
In exile he will become the rallying cry for all dissent. But it will not feel the same.
And worse nobody has a big name presence to fill the void left if Khama does not return.
