It is slightly three years and a few months before the next general/national elections in this country and while that might appear to be a long time off, for the main political parties in this country work has already began. A few issues are going to shape the various political parties’ readiness and their potential to emerge victorious come 2019. Amongst these issues, that I believe will be key in positioning the various parties well to have a greater chance of winning are; the stability or lack of it amongst the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) and the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), the later both as a collective and within its individual member parties, Botswana National Front (BNF), Botswana Peoples Party (BPP) and the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD); The BDPs resolution of the Vice Presidency issue and; the success or failure of opposition coalition talks between the UDC and the Botswana Congress Party (BCP).
The stability issue seems to be the key aspect confront both the BDP and oppositions parties, especially the BCP and BMD. Interestingly for now the BNF appear to be much more stable than any other time in its history and while there may be a few contentious issues, it has seemingly steadied its ship. There has been quite a lot of activity around movement of members to other parties and reports seem to suggest that the greatest movers are from the BDP to opposition parties, especially UDC and the BCP. There is also movement of BCP activists to the BDP and a handful to other opposition parties. The continuation of these cross party movements between now and 2018/19, will ultimately bare on the stability of these parties individually, for while it is a good thing in politics to attract activists from your opponents, it can be also destabilising, especially if those are known to be “high profile” individuals who harbour intentions to assume not only high party positions but also want to feature as potential party representatives in the local and national elections as councillors and members of parliament. This is going to depend entirely on how each party handles and manages the potential rifts that may arise as a result of these new comers.
The stability issue for the BDP will also be a result of how the party finally resolves and navigates the vice presidency issue. The current scenario points to two perspectives; firstly, the current party chairperson and vice president will eventually succeed the incumbent, if the party strikes some consensus and rally behind him as a collective; or as reports seem to indicate, it could be a bare knuckle contest come 2018 for the party chairperson and potentially the vice presidency as names of potential challengers continue to be brandied around. In the event there are challengers, that may have potential to further stare the stability of the party going into 2019 and by extension it could define the party’s election performance. There are reports of individuals positioning themselves for not only belonging this or that group but others are apparently looking at the bigger picture of what they may gain as individuals if they align with one or the other group. It is these rumoured group alignments that may also be potential for party instability.
Secondly, the stability issue has not escaped the UDC either. One of its founding members, the BMD, is currently embroiled in a fight for the control of the party amongst members of its National Executive Committee (NEC) and the escalation of this rift may eventually lead to the demise of some of the NEC members by either legal or illegal means. It could be argued that this is essentially a BMD matter, that should not necessarily be viewed as an UDC matter, but the position, place and role of the BMD in UDC matters translates and extend BMD problems to the UDC, even if indirectly so. An unstable BMD will eventually have effects on the stability of the UDC as a collective. The extent to which the BMD can resolve the current NEC impasse, will ultimately signal its potential to stabilise or not and that result will have some impact on the UDC road strategy for 2019. As of now that impasse has delayed the unity/cooperation talks between the UDC and the BCP and as stated the longer this persists the more time and momentum lost on the expected talks where it was envisaged that by now there would have been positive pointers as to where and what the talks could produce for opposition cooperation. It must be noted that these talks are not necessarily going to be a walk in the park There are contentious issues that need to be thrashed out in detail and any time lost in commencement of the talks may eventually be costly. It is the timing, detail and outcome of the opposition unity talks that will have an effect on the current UDC makeup or with the BCP on board and/or as a single party. The expected outcome of unity/cooperation talks is that it provides space for positive engagement and resolution of the nature of opposition unity going into 2019. This expectation is premised on the potential election benefits to a combined opposition based on the results of the 2014 elections. Whilst there is a lot of optimism about the success of these talks, one cannot overlook the pessimists’ side, especially on account of how the detail of the pudding will be baked by the negotiators. If any particular issue/detail scamper and derail the talks for any longer that will create potential for the pessimists and doubts may begin to weigh heavily on the opposition.
All these issues could be telling for the various political parties and their ability and strategic choices to defuse and resolve these matters amicably, will define whether they enter 2019 elections as stable or unstable entities. It does appear like the stakes are very high for both the ruling parties, the later as both individuals and a collective and resolving these matters and any other that has the potential to destabilise the party is a high priority matter. The challenges are huge and the losses resulting from inactivity and lack of resolve can be very telling.
*Dan Molaodi teaches Public Administration at the University of Botswana
