It is not too late for Botswana to apologise to the people and government of South Africa

Botswana should wake up to the realities of its own survival and confront strategic realism.

It really is time for a rethink. We can no longer live a lie that everything is fine. It is not.

And not surprisingly, pressure is mounting on Botswana government to get its house in order and stop behaving like a ragamuffin.

Everything being equal, Botswana’s relations with South Africa are by a distance the most valuable on earth – for Botswana.

The two countries share a very long border.

And South Africa is by a distance Botswana’s biggest trading partner.

Yet this is what Blade Nzimande said this week: The SACP [South African Communist Party] is concerned about what seems to be impending instability in Botswana. The tensions between the current president, president [Mokgweetsi] Masisi and former president of Botswana Ian Khama pose a serious problem of instability in that country, if not watched carefully. We also are concerned that the South African Reserve Bank seems to be unfairly implicated in funds allegedly stolen in Botswana. We know that this is not the case and must be corrected. SADC we calling upon it to pay close attention to this developing situation in Botswana so that it does not lead to instability. Our region cannot afford anymore instability, at least South Africa by the way because any area of instability in the SADC  region has got huge implications for south Africa in particular.”

This is by any measure a strong statement.

At heart of it all is the P100 billion allegedly stolen from Botswana that the South African Reserve Bank is supposed to have facilitated the transaction of.

Hopefully diplomats at Botswana’s foreign ministry are by now scouring to decipher the details of the Blade Nzimande’s statement with the intention of doing something about it.

It would be criminally negligent to make light of the statement.

In fact the situation should never have been allowed to degenerate to this point.

It matters a lot who is making the statement.

We therefore have to ask ourselves a fundamental question;  who is Blade Nzimande?

Dr Nzimande is a powerful voice inside the ruling tripartite that make up the South African government – being the African National Congress, the SACP Party and the labour movement, COSATU.

Blade Nzimande is also a senior minister in government.

But more importantly he is the Secretary General of the SACP.

In South Africa when he speaks people listen.

It cannot be a coincidence that his statement is made now when former president Ian Khama is sitting in a corner in South Africa, in fear, according to him, of harassment by Masisi government.

How did we end up here.

Paranoia and insecurity rather than logic and convention are some of the key forces driving president Masisi’s decision making processes.

Khama – the man who literally made Masisi a president of Botswana has become a boogeyman inside Botswana government.

Personally I could not care a hoot for Ian Khama, but for Botswana government he has been allowed to become a huge distraction.

Mention his name and every government official ducks for cover.

If it is not Khama then it has to be Khama’s network of backers made up of the well-connected billionaires in South Africa, led chiefly by Bridget Motsepe.

These are the people who are driving Masisi nuts. He sees their shadows following him wherever he goes.

This is not to say they are innocent parties inside the Masisi paranoia.

But through his behaviour, Masisi has stretched relations with South Africa to the brink.

Since becoming president he has been trying to behave more like a guardian of the galaxy than an earthly politician.

For him to now try to walk back events and turn around to say he was not involved in the P100 billion fiasco is to take everyone, except himself for a fool.

Irreparable damage has been caused.

He has to open back channels with South African Government to  beg them on helping him to climb down.

The trouble with South Africa is that other than the presidency, there is also Luthuli House.

Mending relations with the presidency does not always mean with Luthuli too.

So a two-pronged track might be ideal.

South Africa is a regional superpower.

Starting three years ago, in many ways Botswana’s behaviour towards that country has broken all known  conventions to be expected of neighbours with fully fledged diplomatic ties.

A lot of strategic mistakes have been made in pursuit of the money allegedly stolen by Ian Khama.

The reason for that is because Botswana government has allowed its pursuit of perceived crimes by Ian Khama to cloud their judgement – including breaking diplomatic tenets.

It is not easy to calibrate the extent to which the South African government feels aggrieved by Botswana’s behaviour.

There is no hiding what they conceive as general malaise.

But hints have been trickling on for some time now.

First a South African minister responsible for Intelligence and security cancelled her visit to Botswana on the eleventh hour.

She was supposed to be a special envoy of President Cyril Ramaphosa.

It turned out that South Africa was annoyed when details of the visit were leaked to the media before the minister was due to arrive. Yet another flouting of protocol on the part of Botswana.

Then the South African minister responsible for justice flatly turned down a request by Botswana Government for Mutual Legal assistance.

Ronald Lamola reminded all of us that South Africa had diplomatic channels with Botswana that should be utilized on the matter.

Then bizarrely, Botswana Government enlisted the services of a rightwing legal NGO called Afriforum to represent them at a South African court.

This might seem innocuous.

But hell no!

It  was a shocking level of tone deafness on the part of Botswana government.

It also demonstrated a lack of grasp for political nuances in South Africa where racism is still a big issue on all decisions made by government.

Publicly, president Masisi has chosen to be quiet on the matter.

But there is no denying that he is squarely behind all the shenanigans.

The denial is calculated to downplay the gravity of the whole enterprise.

There is no denying that there have been real and serious distractions.

His [mis]handling of the South African question has raised deep questions about his judgement and spurred questions about how prepared he is [prepared to go against the big brother to the south, where Ian Khama has formidable alliances who are steeped in both politics and big business of that country.

When it comes to foreign policy and foreign relations, the buck distinctly stops with him.

Public institutions in Botswana cannot smear a neighboring country and then have the President of Botswana say he was not involved in any of it.

The issue of incriminating senior members of the ruling ANC is one matter.

But impugning mischief making on the part of the South African Reserve Bank is beyond the pale.

It is reprehensible and unpardonable, not least because the Bank of Botswana has itself consistently stated that they were not missing any money.

The South African Reserve Bank is one of the most revered, illuminous and iconic public institutions in that country.

In a series of statements and actions that had the potential to hurt relations with South Africa Botswana government and some of its officials have recklessly failed to weigh the impact of those actions and statements on a friendly country.

In fact to be fair South Africa has all along demonstrated maturity, forbearance and restraint.

Masisi has allowed his phony fight with Ian Khama to run beyond its usefulness to him as a sitting president.

Now a groundswell of people is beginning to see him as petty and more importantly  unable to separate state business from his personal likes and dislikes.

Dr Nzimande’s frustrations are in a way a reflection of growing public angst – here at home, but also in South Africa against Masisi’s ham-fisted handling of what was supposed to be a flash in a pan quarrel with Ian Khama.