With the Zimbabwean unity government tottering on the brink of collapse, it will be interesting to see which Ian Khama shows up to help pick up the pieces.
There is Ian Khama the hawk who broke ranks with regional leaders and took a hardline against the Robert Mugabe regime. Then there is Ian Khama the dove who last week joined the chorus of regional leaders calling for the lifting of sanctions against Zimbabwe.
As Khama and Zuma where shaking hands last week over their new found common ground on the Zimbabwean issue, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai was addressing a press conference announcing that his party will not recognize the 10 provincial governors re-appointed by Mugabe, outside provisions of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) that underpins the unity government. The MDC said it would also no longer recognize the Reserve Bank Governor, the Attorney General and a number of ambassadors.
Khama’s new soft power approach resonated with the editorial of the South African Business Day: “At present, the lifting of sanctions is being used as a carrot to coax Zanu (PF) to keep moving forward, but if this has stopped working a change of strategy is in order. Lifting the most onerous economic sanctions would allow the prospect of their reimposition should progress towards a free election not take place to be used as a stick. It’s worth a try.”
Botswana opposition political parties are however reading a different reason into Khama’s sudden decision to tone down his position on Zimbabwe: That the President of Botswana finds himself out in the cold and is now trying to ingratiate himself into the favour of regional leaders.
Opposition Botswana Congress Party (BCP) says Khama must learn to engage and lobby other leaders in the region to his side before taking a public position.
“In International relations, it is very unwise to play the populist card like Khama has attempted to do in the past two years. What Khama has done in the past was to crudely break ranks with other leaders without engaging them in hard ball, face to face debate that could win them to his side. Because of the less than diplomatic approach adopted by Khama and his chief foreign relations lieutenant, other SADC leaders particularly South Africa have exposed and exploited our economic vulnerabilities to cause us to behave,” says Taolo Lucas, the BCP spokesman.
Lucas is of the view that it is unlikely Pretoria uttered a word asking Khama to tone down.
“The body language and attitude of the other leaders in the region was enough to cause a change of position by Botswana. Khama was beginning to feel the discomfort of isolation. He was forced to change positions by the naked realities of our regional politics,” says Lucas.
As Khama talks about the need to end sanctions on Zimbabwe, Lucas wonders, “Which sanctions?”
“Smart sanctions imposed by Europe, US and Australia on targeted ZANU PF loyalists or indirect sanctions imposed by the US influence on major financial institutions? If he is talking about the removal of targeted sanctions, it is difficult to find a reason to justify that position,” the BCP spokesman says.
In the meantime Mugabe and his ZANU-PF loyalists continue to frustrate the Unity government by imposing ill-advised economic policies and for that, the BCP says the Zimbabwe strongman cannot be rewarded by lifting sanctions against him and his cronies.
“Mugabe’s political intolerance, campaign of intimidation against his opponents and abuse of human rights continues and there is no basis for softening positions against him and his cronies. On the other hand if Khama is talking about lifting indirect sanctions, it is still very premature as there is no guarantee that money that could be disbursed to Zimbabwe by International financial institutions could be put to good use. Mugabe may just use the money to continue his reign of terror on political opponents or even still use the same money to perpetuate electoral fraud,” says Lucas.
The BCP position is that sanctions of a “smart and targeted nature must continue until Mugabe dispenses with his rogue mentality or he is forced to quit.” The BCP says Mugabe and his ZANU PF must cooperate in putting together the infrastructure and cultivating an atmosphere conducive for free and fair elections.
The BCP regards Botswana’s position on Al Bashir as one of those populist stances Khama adopted. “It will be very embarrassing to climb down on that in a short space of time. I however believe that Khama’s wish is that the African Union should quickly forget about his position on Al Bashir. What is important though is not toning down on Al Bashir but rather to have a refined foreign policy informed by Botswana’s position and obligation in the international community of nations. We cannot afford to operate on the basis of back of envelope policies that are not anchored on any tested principles. If we do not develop such a policy, we cannot escape the perpetual disgrace of flip flopping or somersaulting in our positions,” says Lucas.
The Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) has itself observed that Khama’s initial foreign policy positions were, as were many of his initiatives,┬ávery poorly conceived based entirely on an egotistic instinct and┬áan anxiety to be seen to be different and better than his predecessor presidents and colleagues in the SADC Region and in Africa. The party says political realities in the Region, and in Africa, had to be subordinated to┬á“an over zealousness┬áto ingratiate himself to the West.”┬á
 
“We do not say that his positions on Zimbabwe and Sudan┬áwere unfortunate, but we are saying that┬áhis approach and presentation of what was otherwise a commendable stance was wholly wrong.┬áHe could have sought and achieved┬áa good result┬áwithout alienating those who┬áhe badly┬áneeded for his objectives┬áto attain┬áthe end which one hopes he desired,” says advocate Sidney Pilane, the BMD spokesman.
 
Pilane says it was the alienation caused by Khama’s unwise approach, “dominated more by an egotistic┬áneed to stand out and to┬áplease” that doomed his┬ámethod to failure. The BMD spokesman says as a result, not only has Khama’s┬ábad approach failed, “as it was bound to”, but he has┬áirrecoverably lost any┬áchance he may have had of influencing change in Zimbabwe and Sudan because he was alone. And alone is alone!┬á
 
Pilane says because of Khama’s initial poor presentation of what was otherwise a good┬áposition on Zimbabwe and Sudan which were calculated to reflect poorly on his SADC and African colleagues, he will never fully recover┬áthe good relationship┬áthat Botswana had with those countries, nor the respect┬áthe country┬áenjoyed.
“President Zuma’s warm politeness┬ámust not be mistaken for the restoration of former relations; diplomatic and protocol considerations required the sort of response that South Africa extended,” warns the BMD spokesman.
 
Having said that, Pilane says Khama needs to be commended for finally realizing that “the business of governing is not an ego trip that takes no account of realities around one and on the ground”.
“Foreign policy must be well thought out, and should be based on knowledge and expertise gleaned from those who have it. It must be framed such as to achieve goals for which it is designed, and it can only do so if it takes into account factors that go towards what works best. I┬áam glad that the President seems to now realize these important considerations. One only hopes that he will extend this realization to the quashing of his other experiments in favour of constructive, targeted, and effective strategies, says Pilane.
For the Botswana National Front (BNF) Khama had to come up with something to appease South Africa for strained relations and the Zimbabwean issue came in handy. The BNF, initially critical of President Robert Mugabe when the┬áruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) maintained a silent diplomacy approach, while welcoming Khama’s climb down from his abrasive diplomacy faults him for having been too close to the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, Morgan Tsvangirai, and, with a solidarity posture, for having differed publicly with the rest of regional leaders.
The BNF says there is a chance that Botswana might soften her stance towards Sudanese President. That however, will depend on the pressure that Pretoria applies on Gaborone.
“While it has to be acknowledged that Botswana as a sovereign state can take a position independent of other states and international organisations, what cannot be denied is that no state can prosper in isolation. The feeling within the region is that Botswana is too close to the western countries and its foreign policy is influenced by them. Mugabe took advantage of this and started accusing the country of being used by the West, says the BNF spokesman Moeti Mohwasa.
 
Mohwasa says this was happening at a time when Botswana had just signed an EPA with the EU which South Africa as a regional powerhouse believed was not in the best interest of the region.
“The continued criticism of the SADC decisions on Zimbabwe and the South African sponsored Global Political Agreement (GPA) by Botswana pushed the country┬áaway from South Africa with the diplomatic relations becoming strained in the process. South Africa saw this┬áas a move to undermine it and a slap on the face by a country that hitherto been too quiet on the international front,” says Mohwasa.┬á
 
The BNF offers that Botswana must work closely with other countries in the region and raise whatever concerns she has within the structures of the organisations that it is a member of and rally for support. “If our view is not accepted we should respect the collective decisions of the organisations that we are members of.┬áThis should also apply to other countries who are members of such organisations. We should support whatever decisions have been made whether┬áwe agree with them or not,” the BNF says.
 
The BNF says there is a chance that Botswana might soften her stance depending on the pressure that the South Africans apply.
“We need South Africa for the Mmamabula project to succeed. The country will for sometime remain our biggest trading partner whether we like it or not. While we provide a lucrative market for them through┬áour membership SACU, we also benefit from the SACU Customs revenue.┬áThe threat to the future of SACU was a threat to our economic prosperity as we were going to come out more bruised than the South Africans,” according to the BNF spokesman.┬á
 
The party says there might also be a change of approach in terms of how Botswana deals with decisions of organisations that it is a member of. The BNF says the near collapse of relationship between Botswana and South Africa might have taught Botswana to always work closely with other countries in the region to avoid being marginalised citing one of the resolutions from the recent meeting between the two countries where it was decided that they will engage the EU in their EPA negotiations as a Block through SADC.  
“Of course the BDP government might publicly deny this shift, but it does not have a choice if it wants favours from South Africa,” says Mohwasa.
