All signals now point to the fact that like many other countries in the sub-continent, Botswana is on the throws of what could be the worst and most devastating drought in over 30 years.
This is very scary indeed, not least because the looming drought comes at a time when most of our support structures ÔÇô economic and social ÔÇô are at their weakest on account of a number of variables.
This raises questions of our ability to absorb the pressure as a country.
Economically, the country is still far from recovering from the 2008 recession that saw many diamond mines which provide our economic mainstay as a nation close down.
Drought aside, experts were already predicting that based on the economic dynamics playing out in the international markets, which reached a peak with the opening of the New Year, the world was re-entering the gloomy conditions of 2008 yet again.
Socially, our structures are at their weakest because of the unsustainably high levels of unemployment that are literally bleeding our young people to pieces.
The social wounds effected by HIV/AIDS that threatened to annihilate this nation in the last decade are still raw.
HIV/AIDS did not only kill people, it also decimated our social support structures like the extended family. On account of HIV/AIDS, many children who should otherwise be at school all of a sudden found themselves assuming the difficult roles of being breadwinners.
As the drought approaches, it is important that we take stock of ourselves as a nation and assess closely if our social defence and safety valves are strong enough to absorb the stress tests that will come with the new dangers.
While as a country we have never in the past achieved full food security and self sufficiency, this time around the situation threatens to be worse.
This is so because the countries on which we have in the past relied on to take care of our food supply deficits have themselves reported that they also will not be able to even take care of their internal domestic demands. South Africa, which has remained the region’s buffer against the excesses of food insecurity has reported that they expect their grain supply this year to decline by 30 percent.
The drought will be made worse by the fact that it is spread across the entire sub-Saharan continent.
The classification of Botswana as an upper middle income country has also had its negative impacts on the ability of the country to access requisite assistance from outside.
The most vulnerable sections of our society will most inevitably feel the worst brunt of it all.
In our view this demographic sub-sector includes the poor, the children but also the rural population in general a majority of who subsist on their crop production.
This is however not to make light of the grave difficulties faced by multitudes in urban areas who on account of joblessness are just as exposed.
Our biggest fear is that there will be food shortages.
This is because while the rain season will come to an end in a few weeks time, very few farmers, especially the subsistence ones have even started ploughing their fields.
The shortages will most likely result in a spike in food prices that will be out of reach for many people.
Although the international fuel prices have been falling drastically, we note with concern that in Botswana the authorities have not been responsive enough to pass on that economic benefit to consumers ÔÇô neither directly nor indirectly.
We say so because fuel prices in Botswana have not fallen in a degree that correlates with the situation as it obtains in the world market.
This is a failure because whenever international prices go up, our authorities are always timely in their response to reflect those changes in the regulated fuel prices across the country.
That is not the only omission that is related to falling fuel prices.
Up to this stage public transport fares have not been reduced to reflect such a fall.
This is notwithstanding that world fuel prices have been falling for over 12 months now, currently standing at below $30 a barrel, from the heights of over $100.
There is also a mismatch with regard to household consumables. While retailers always attribute their price increases to rising fuel prices during such times, there can be no excuse that the same retailers have not been reducing their prices this time around to reflect the reality that fuel prices is at its lowest in 12 years.
All these are issues that our Government should pay attention to, especially as there is as a matter of fact going to be material adverse effects on our public finances given the scale of the looming drought.
Traditional interventions will no doubt be enough.
We need to be more imaginative in overhauling such interventions and making them not just more targeted but also in reflecting the differing needs region by region.
A straightjacket approach can no longer serve the purpose.
