Few would have seen it coming.
Only a few months ago it was almost a given that Kesitlegile Gobotswang of the Botswana Congress Party was headed for parliament.
Everything was going so well for him.
His campaign efforts had received a shot in the arm after he was named Vice President of his party’s shadow cabinet.
His campaign was rated among the best in the country, thanks in no small part to his decision two years earlier to leave his job as a senior lecturer at the University of Botswana.
He was a politician on the march, having reduced the BDP margins from the hovering five thousand in the 2004 General Elections to just over one thousand in 2009.
To put the cherry on top, he was easily counted among the country’s foremost and likeable politicians who was in touch with his constituency.
Until only a few weeks ago!
Now even the most sympathetic observer says Gobotswang should count himself exceedingly lucky if he ultimately makes it to parliament after the October General Elections.
In ever growing numbers people are deserting him and putting their money on Dorcas Makgatho Malesu, a Botswana Democratic Party candidate for Sefhare-Ramokgonami who only a few months ago was in varying degrees discounted as a political novice, a newcomer and a greenhorn who was no match for Gobotswang’s towering experience.
While the change of fortune will no doubt come as an unmitigated shocker to Gobotswang and his BCP, it is exactly how Makgatho-Malesu had crafted and predicted it.
When we met a while ago she bitterly complained against the media narrative that sought to dismiss her as a dark horse.
“I am newcomer, I am a novice, and I am facing an uphill battle… All these have no relevance to normal thinking people. Watch the space. That is all I can say to you and your media colleagues,” she said as she took a swipe at the media who she accused of breaking all rules to prop up Gobotswang.
Even more hurtful, Malesu added, was the media proclivity not merely to rule her out of the contest but also to refuse to even recognize the gains she was making.
She particularly took offence with suggestions that Botswana Congress Party was the natural beneficiary of the fallout stemming from BDP ham-fisted primary elections.
The BDP head of political affairs, Reggie Reatile, dismisses as a schoolboy mistake the excitement by the BCP to count Sefhare-Ramokgonami as one of those constituencies already in their bag.
“As the BDP, Sefhare-Ramokgonami is not giving us any sleepless nights. There were issues following primaries when some of Molebatsi’s supporters could not easily accept defeat. As for Molebatsi he was never a problem. He has always been part of the solution,” said Reatile.
Molebatsi is the incumbent Member of Parliament who lost against Malesu.
Reatile adds that holding primary elections early has allowed the BDP to work on cooling tempers and mollify supporters of the losing candidate.
“I want to emphasise that Molebatsi never had problems. It was only his right hand men. But they are now back in the fold and working for their party. We will win that constituency without any trouble.”
Insiders say Gobotswang’s growth in popularity between 2004 and 2009 was largely a reflection of popular disapproval of Molebatsi, which was bound to change the moment the party found a replacement.
“What the BCP strategists have failed to understand is that their growing numbers in the constituency was always a result of BDP protest vote. It had nothing to do with their popularity,” says one observer.
It is a lesson that the BDP has internalized very well.
In a carefully choreographed message when he made a stop in Ramokgonami recently, President Khama emphatically instructed the party faithful to vote for the party and not the candidate.
It was a message also tailored to reach that disaffected section of the party that never has fully accepted Molebatsi’s loss to Malesu who they viewed as an outsider with questionable grassroots credentials.
Khama is expected to return to the constituency in a few weeks time to address a star rally that is expected to be a game changer.
The change of fortunes can, in no small measure also be attributed to Malesu’s hard work.
Starting with the primary elections, she has been able to use her outgoing demeanour and streetwise attitude to cultivate a close relationship that many ever thought she could weave.
All these have resulted in BDP revival and mobilization to levels that have even shocked BCP followers in the constituency
And that is not all.
A quick glance of constituency dynamics reveals that instead of taking control of the mood that prevailed during his early lead, Gobotswang became complacent and left his destiny to be continually dependent on events at the BDP which was at the time engaged in what amounted to a civil war.
“Relying too much on support from Molebatsi’s disillusioned base is mistake that Gobotswang will leave to regret. He counted too much on events playing out on the other side,” says another observer.
According to this school of thought, instead of working at consolidating his loyal base, the BCP Secretary allowed himself to be carried away by mistaken belief that he would be a beneficiary of popular disapproval against Malesu that had manifested itself in groundswell of anger inside Molebatsi’s camp.
But as it turns out the BDP has been doing a lot of work to heal those wounds. “In as far as it is possible, we have been successful,” says Reatile.
Although she has fitted into the constituency like fish into water, Malesu was not always a party favorite to stand in Sefhare-Ramokgonami.
The party, through President Khama, had other plans for her.
The plan was to utilize her suave skills which are a mixture of intellectual grandstanding, corporate urbanity and cosmopolitan appeal to wrestle Gaborone Central from Gobotswang’s BCP where the party leader, Dumelang Saleshando has enjoyed a God-like status for a decade now.
As it turned out, Malesu had other plans ÔÇô and at least for now those plans are running the show in Sefhare-Ramokgonami.
