Batswana should be worried that the BDF might end up staying much longer in Mozambique than was originally imagined.
In the middle of all the madness happening here at home, it’s easy to forget that Botswana Defence Force is currently involved in fighting a totally avoidable war away in northern Mozambique.
The BDF presence in Mozambique is not a trivial matter.
It should not be allowed to slip off the radar.
There are lives of Batswana at stake – over three hundred soldiers – as are resources that could otherwise be put to better use here at home.
There is also the economics part; if the mission drags longer, as it now looks ever more likely, pressure will be exerted on the national budget that is still far from recovering from the effects of Covid-19.
The BDF campaign in Mozambique has been characterised by acute lack of public information on the mission. The news blackout goes way beyond the requisite operational opaqueness.
And where information exists, it has been found to be nothing short of deliberately crafted self-congratulations by the authorities, chiefly as a way of continued justification of the decision to go to Mozambique in the first place.
As George Orwell once said, one of the first casualties of a war is the truth.
There is no doubt that right from the beginning kinetic efforts by BDF and others were always going to be very limited in achieving the end goals.
Lack of progress on the ground has made it inevitable to gloss over the situation when events seem to be going against not just the BDF but also the official narrative.
It means that untruths will have to be churned out until such time that it has become too late for truth-telling.
The armies deployed to Mozambique are placed in uniquely difficult circumstances; first because there is no peace to keep there, but also because without addressing the grievances of local communities, the forces presence in Cabo Delgado will ultimately be in vain.
By not pushing Mozambique government to use the time when these foreign armies are still on the ground in Cabo Delgado to address the long simmering grievances of local communities, Botswana government and others that have deployed their armies are effectively being two-faced or worse, evangelist in their agenda.
No amount of political posturing will change the fact that there are genuine grievances of exclusion and underdevelopment among local communities in Cabo Delgado that have to be addressed as a matter of urgency.
Nothing better lays bare the extent of corruption in Maputo than the embarrassing ongoing corruption trial that has reached the nerve centre of power in Maputo, pitting former president Armando Guebuza against his chosen successor, incumbent Filipe Nyusi.
Corruption extends to the rag tag that passes for the Mozambique national defence forces.
They are so corrupt that they see nothing wrong soliciting bribes from the poor communities of Cabo Delgado.
This is a kind of government that the BDF has been sent to defend and prop up – using Botswana’s taxes at a time when many Batswana are literally facing starvation.
If the BDF are other forces were to leave Cabo Delgado today, the province will most likely fall to insurgents again the following day.
The Cabo Delgado population is a frustrated lot. There is too much corruption. There are no jobs for the youth and discontent builds by the day.
Lest we forget, Botswana government is using its fiscal resources to look after the BDF operations in Mozambique.
This basically means foregoing other more pressing issues at home.
Thus the economic impact of the war in Mozambique on Botswana cannot be underestimated.
Yet every day that passes with the BDF spending it in Mozambique increases chances of a mission creep.
Reports are trickling that insurgents have become more buoyant.
Once again villages are being routinely attacked, by the same insurgents that around last Christmas were believed to have been all but wiped out.
Same reports also show growing organizational momentum on the part of insurgents.
It is clear they are getting external support – in guns and ammunition, but also in finance.
Global insurgents seem to be closing ranks and giving impetus to the Mozambique franchise.
It is difficult to see how BDF, or any of the deployed forces can now be withdrawn in the face of growing momentum by insurgents, once again increasing chances of a forever war.
We continue to be fed boilerplate one-sided briefs that depict insurgency in Mozambique as effectively being wiped out.
The truth is that the situation remains volatile, atrocities including beheadings and decapitations, continue unabated.
To be fair, in his recent briefing, Professor Mpho Molomo who is representing president Masisi, was a bit forthright.
He did touch on operational challenges faced by the soldiers and also on what needs to be done.
More crucially the Ambassador talked about the need to restore physical infrastructure in Cabo Delgado.
He also talked about the need for the rule of law, social capacity as well as progress that will be deemed inclusive by the local communities.
Cabo Delgado is too marginalized. And if those things are not done efforts by BDF and others will go to waste.
Only humanitarian efforts on the ground would consolidate gains by the armed forces and make it difficult for insurgents to regroup.
We also need to know the extent to which Mozambique government is itself addressing the very conditions that led to the insurgency in the first place.
These conditions include squalor, poverty, unfairness and a clear lack of justice for the northern areas of Mozambique.
As such there is need of more investment in the Cabo Delgado – Mozambique’s poorest province.
The BDF and other armies deployed to Mozambique can kill insurgents and bring back the residents that had fled.
But for peace to come back under such circumstances would mean the BDF and others staying in Mozambique forever.
That is untenable.
Mozambique has to be prepared to do the heavy lifting, including holding the liberated ground and also giving hope to the residents of Cabo Delgado.
Poverty and living standards have to be addressed.
Maputo government has to especially use NGOs – local and international – to help bring hope to the war torn communities in Cabo Delgado.
