As if there is not enough trouble coming the way of the UDC, here is another new one.
The BPF presents a real and ongoing challenge for the Umbrella for Democratic Change.
The Botswana Patriotic Front is a little political bomb waiting to explode.
The danger is that it might explode on the face of the UDC.
We often forget just how fragile Botswana’s opposition parties are.
That is made all the worse by their recklessness as shown by their appetite for risk.
Across the board, Botswana’s opposition parties lack caution.
Botswana Congress Party used to be an exception.
Not anymore.
One has to listen to the acerbic language too often deployed by the BCP leader these days, especially when talking about the Umbrella for Democratic Change to appreciate the lack of restraint that runs across the opposition. They have thrown out all caution through the window.
That’s a debate for another day.
There are glaring organizational flaws in both the structure and protocols of the BPF at the moment.
Let’s start with the office of the Patron.
To be fair to Ian Khama he is the person who really created the BPF.
Leading the party was going to make him vulnerable to ruling party attacks that he wanted to get back into power through the backdoor.
So he decided to be called a Patron – effectively a Supreme Leader.
To understand the title, when he was State President, Khama was Patron to many organisations.
Because of his upbringing, as a traditional leader and also son of founding president, Khama does not know how to operate within an organization especially when he is not himself a leader of that organisation. The BPF leadership has struggled with no success to contain him.
He has been totally incapable of subjecting himself to the leadership of the BPF Central Committee.
That has only become worse with the growth of factionalism within the party.
As a result Khama has been perennially speaking out of turn.
He does not observe formal protocol and for visitors from outside, he can easily be mistaken for the official spokesperson of the BPF.
At a more personal level, this has the effect of eroding his credibility and stature among the polarised BPF followers.
At another level, this is dangerous, not only for BPF itself, but more for the UDC.
There is a net impression created of chaos running across board.
Make no mistake, the BPF needs Ian Khama more than Ian Khama needs the BPF.
It is not a coincidence that all the party’s Members of Parliament are from the Central District, specifically in the Serowe areas.
This is the seat of Ian Khama’s power base.
Forget about the BPF portraying itself as a national party.
It is a regional party with national aspirations.
This brings us to the low intensity battles being fought inside the BPF.
A key personality in all these is Samson Moyo Guma.
Moyo Guma has never had permanent friends – not in business, not in his private life and certainly not in politics.
Previously he has been a Mokgweetsi Masisi ally. Before that Moyo Guma had been a founder member of the Botswana Movement for Democracy. His decision to leave BMD and rejoin the BDP when that was least expected almost brought BMD to a premature death.
Moyo-Guma presents a big risk to the UDC. Batswana do not take him seriously as a leader, mainly on account of his background as brazen transactional politician.
In 2019 the UDC suffered as a result of being seen to be too close to Ian Khama. That was a fatal tactical mistake.
Just emerging from a bruising internal fight with the Botswana Congress Party, the UDC cannot afford to gamble its future by associating with yet another controversial and even suspicious politician seen as a doubling dealing.
We have to honestly look at Ian Khama’s formidable credentials as a thoroughbred royal to understand the fast growth of BPF in many parts of the Central District.
Only then can we begin to understand the circumstances why the ruling party lost constituencies that it had held since 1965.
Let’s face it, no leader that has not been picked by Ian Khama or has his blessing has any chance of holding the BPF together much less growing this regional outfit.
And a BPF that does not have Ian Khama in it has no future to talk about.
What will happen if Moyo Guma is able to wrestle the BPF is exactly what happened to BMD when his friend, Sydney Pilane wrestled BMD from Ndaba Gaolathe. Immediately thereafter the BMD plunged down and died a natural death.
Debating Ian Khama’s future role in the BPF is exactly like debating the existential future of that organization.
It does not matter what Moyo Guma’s true intensions are.
They are unlikely to be good for the UDC going into the General election in 2024.
Moyo Guma will prove not only a hard sell for the UDC, but potentially a fatal tactical mistake too.
The UDC leader will need to do the impossible, which is to explain to a voting public that remains very skeptical of opposition politicians why they should vote for his party that has as Samson Moyo Guma as its vice president.
That is by and of itself an insurmountable task. In 2019, UDC could not convince the public why they were teaming up with Ian Khama. Since then, Khama has in a big way been rehabilitated by president Mokgweetsi Masisi’s recklessness and unsavoury ways of fighting the former president.
The same cannot be said Moyo Guma.
The UDC needs to prove to a doubting voter that it is capable of making sound judgement when comes to its own survival and also its relevance.
By embracing Khama in 2019, the public rejected. Embracing Moyo Guma this time around will lead to far worse, not least because Moyo Guma does not have the kind of reginal sway that can constituencies the same way Khama did.
If Moyo Guma wins the BPF leadership, UDC might have to reject BPF as a price to pay to remain electable.
