It is a measure of the paranoia that Botswana Congress Party (BCP) President Dumelang Saleshando inspires among colleagues in the opposition umbrella that even his picture on a newspaper front page cause intense speculation.
When the debate on who is likely to lead the umbrella started making news, the Botswana Guardian used a huge picture of the BCP president to illustrate the story. Hardly surprising, Saleshando is one of three candidates vying for the top post.
Other members of the opposition umbrella, however, immediately went into analytical overdrive, rehearsing multiple scenarios and speculating feverishly that Saleshando was behind the story that presented him as front runner ahead of Duma Boko of Botswana National Front (BNF) and Gomolemo Motswaledi of the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD).
This was probably much ado about nothing. The euphoria that met news of an opposition party cooperation was, however, receding gradually. Members of the umbrella had lost their innocence and had few illusions about their true loyalties.
Overnight, the opposition umbrella, which was a rallying point for the opposition to oust the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), became a union of strange bedfellows who are suspicious of each other. One of the more pernicious effects was a penchant by each of the umbrella parties to filter all experience through the apex of their own ego, to the detriment of everything else ÔÇô including the umbrella itself.
Thus demands are skewed, priorities misplaced and perspective polluted. The umbrella has become a battleground of selfish interests rather than a meeting point of aspirations to remove the BDP from power.
And events have been conspiring to bring out the worst of the opposition parties’ dog eat dog impulses.
First was the decision by former BMD Member of Parliament, Guma Moyo, to resign from the party. This took away the BMD numerical superiority in parliament. With BMD, BNF and BCP having five MPs apiece, the position of leader of opposition was up for grabs.
The BNF was first to declare that it will not be contesting the position, and proposed that BMD Vice President, Botsalo Ntuane, be retained as leader of opposition.
The BCP President, on the other hand, seemed to be dithering before finally accepting the BNF proposal. The opposition umbrella air had already been poisoned so much so that sinister speculations and guesswork fleshed out Saleshando and his motives.
Of the various theories advanced to explain why the BCP took time to accept the proposal that Ntuane be retained as leader of opposition, a favourite has it that Saleshando wants to wrest the position so that he can leverage it in the contest for leader of the opposition umbrella.
This suspicion has not been helped by the controversy that attended the scramble by opposition parties to win over former BDP Secretary General Kentse Rammidi. No sooner had the Member of Parliament for Kanye announced his resignation that he found himself at the centre of a love triangle between the BCP and the BMD.
While Rammidi’s longtime friends felt that the BMD offered the most appropriate home for a like minded colleague, the BCP president on the other hand was actively counting the Kanye MP to join them. At some point, things got so ugly that Rammidi, who was billed to address a BMD rally in Francistown, almost did not show up. His explanation was that he would be attending a sponsored walk for the Kanye royal family.
The fact that Saleshando showed up at the Kanye sponsored walk stoked suspicions that he was putting pressure on Rammidi not to attend the BMD rally. After a lot of coaxing, Rammidi finally made it to the rally where he was a major billing.
That theory that the BCP is marshalling everything in pursuit of the grand prize – the umbrella presidency – provides much of the force behind the BNF and BMD paranoia over Saleshando. It is, however, difficult to fight back openly without rocking the boat, so most opposition party members have resorted to a bush telegraph of discreet press briefings. The series of leaks has produced notorious character assassins in the vicious world of umbrella politics and added to the toxic mood of the talks.
The public is being systematically misinformed about the talks, by a mass media feed on doctored scoops from the umbrella negotiations.
There has been a concerted propaganda campaign deployed to suggest that the BMD was making unreasonable demands. The impression created from media reports was that the BMD is insisting on 27 constituencies while the BCP, BNF and BPP would be expected to share the rest of the constituencies. The reality, so far as it can be judged from reports by the chairman of the talks, Lebang Mpotokwane, is appallingly different.
All the four parties to the umbrella have brought forward a wish-list each which formed the basis for the negotiations. The BNF wants 27 constituencies, the BCP wants 26 constituencies, and the BMD wants 22 constituencies while the BPP wants only three.
The issue which is fiercely contested is that of incumbency. While the BMD is proposing that all opposition incumbent MPs should retain their constituencies,
The BCP wants BMD Member of Parliament, Wynter Mmolotsi, to make way for Vain Mamela whom he defeated in the last elections and BMD’s Odirile Motlhala to surrender the Ramotswa constituency to BCP Vice President Lepetu Sethwaelo.
The BNF, on the other hand, wants BMD Member of Parliament Nehemiah Modubule who won the constituency as an independent candidate to surrender the constituency to them. They also want BMD’s Gilbert Mangole to make way for BNF deputy Secretary General, Nono Kgafela.
Another campaign that is now being waged through the media is that the BMD should be kicked out of the talks because it is making unreasonable demands. Interestingly, out of the 27 constituencies that the BNF is vying for, none of them are being contested by the BCP, similarly, among the 26 constituencies that the BCP is bidding for, none of them seem to have caught the interest of the BNF.
Reporters who have been following the talks, however, offer another take on the dynamics that drive the opposition umbrella. The view widely held in newsrooms is that the Botswana Congress Party is negotiating with one eye on the grand prize ÔÇô the umbrella presidency- should the talks succeed and another eye on ensuring their continued growth should the talks collapse. The party does not want to let go of its growth areas some of which it lost by small margins in the last elections. While the issue of incumbency would protect their sitting MPs from competition from the opposition parties, and may ultimately weaken the BDP, it also poses a threat in that the BMD may use it as a stepping stone to outgrow them.
The BMD on the other hand seems to have hitched its growth strategy on the coattails of incumbency. With most BDP Barata-Phathi MPs sitting on marginal constituencies, it will be easier for the BMD to win them over by promising them safer constituencies. While this will most likely hemorrhage the BDP and probably bring it to its knees, it will also ensure that the BMD grows faster than other parties in the umbrella, and herein lies the sticky point.
The BNF, on the other hand, is believed to be the spoiler. While its president Duma Boko is believed to be among the most committed champions of opposition unity, his followers are reported to be the worst culprits in leaking information. The BNF is believed to be playing the BMD against the BCP hoping that the two parties would ultimately be blamed for the collapse of the talks. There is a strong belief among some BNF functionaries that should the talks collapse, the BNF would be the biggest beneficiary of the public wrath that would be visited among those believed to have betrayed the umbrella mission to unseat the BDP.
Another school of thought, however, holds that should the talks collapse, there will be no survivor. For a long time, the four parties would be locked in marathon blame game, leaving the field clear for the BDP to get its house in order and consolidate its power.
