As opposition cooperation talks begin to gain momentum, it is imperative that we remain cautiously optimistic that this project will not fall down, but would rather succeed for the good of the nation. History attests to the fact that no single party can single-handedly dislodge the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) from power in the immediate future, at least not by 2014.
The nation of Botswana is therefore pinning its hopes in a successful outcome of the opposition cooperation talks as the only potent option to bring to an end BDP’s over four decades misrule.
However, it needs to be borne in mind that opposition talks can either be successful or a complete failure. It seems to be easy to contemplate what would happen if the cooperation talks are successful. But has anyone ever thought of what could happen if the talks fall down? This is a possibility and a sad one. It has happened in the past and it could happen even now. Do we then fold our arms and remain hopeless? I believe there could still be hope for the opposition even after the collapse of cooperation talks.
I would like to take time to objectively explore the chances of a fragmented opposition against the BDP in 2014 in the advent cooperation talks collapsing. It needs to be noted that the outcome of such a scenario would depend primarily on two things; (1) How much the BDP’s share of popular vote declines compared with 2009 and (2) How the share of various parties, but especially the BDP, is distributed across constituencies.
Barring the unforeseen developments, the BDP’s overall vote share will drop to below 50% next time. But we are all aware that in our first past the post system, elections are won and lost at constituency level. In a three way race, the BDP could win a constituency by 35% of the vote.
However, in a tight four way race – meaning that all four candidates are really running, it would be possible for the BDP to win with less than 30% of the vote. One considers it unlikely that four candidates would be able to gain sufficient traction to be serious contenders in more than a few constituencies. But tight three way races are already a relatively commonplace in this country.
It is possible that the voters can coordinate at constituency level, even if the leadership does not, although the lack of formal cooperation makes coordination more difficult- UNLESS there is a clear opposition front runner around which voters can coordinate. In such a scenario, one would expect for example, Hon Dumelang Saleshando and Hon Botsalo Ntuane among others to fare well next time, whether there is a formal opposition cooperation or not.
Other constituencies where the opposition have clear front runners in terms of opposition figures are; Lobatse, Kweneng South East, Kgatleng East and West, Gaborone North, Gaborone West North, Palapye, Francistown South, Tati East and Tati West, Okavango, Ngami, Chobe, Ngwaketsi West, Kanye South, South East South, Gaborone South, Francistown East, Tonota South and North, Shoshong, Molepolole North, Letlhakeng East and West, Kgalagadi South and North, Bobirwa, Tswapong South, Gantsi South and North, Nkange. Here, in addition to personalities, there is the fact that the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) and Botswana National Front (BNF) have pockets of known regional strengths.
The new entrant Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) seems to have made some inroads though it is quite difficult to objectively measure its strength now, especially in North West and South West areas. But they have some front runners in terms of personalities both at parliamentary and council levels, which could be a factor for consideration in an informal cooperation. Four or three way races are also more likely to benefit the opposition in areas such as Francistown West, Nata/Gweta, Mogoditshane, Kanye North, Ngwaketsi South, Borolong and Kweneng South. In the last election, the BDP still had an edge in most three way races, even where the majority voted for opposition candidates. Will the same scenario obtain in the next elections? We are not sure. If the BDP still have an advantage, it will win most of these constituencies. Otherwise it will be like a coin-flip for each of these constituencies.
Of course the voters can equally refuse to coordinate even if the leadership agrees to do so. This makes it more difficult to achieve effective cooperation, since disgruntled people can always decide to run as independents or abstain. Another element here that will have huge implications for outcomes is the delimitation exercise. It is hoped that any changes in constituencies will be announced before the end of next year. If the number of constituencies increases, that should aid opposition coordination. BUT, delimitation also creates opportunities for gerrymandering. Close examination of the 2001 delimitation, for example, suggests that redistricting hurt the BCP more significantly, especially in 2004 elections. The opposition should therefore monitor this process very closely.
The bottom line is, if there were no delimitation exercise and if the opposition failed to achieve significant partial cooperation, then one would expect a continued but reduced BDP majority with less than 50% of the popular vote to be the most likely scenario. However, one could not rule out the possibility that the BDP could lose its legislative majority even under those circumstances.
This also assumes there are no major scandals between now and the elections. The good news for the opposition is that a significant redistribution of seats could be achieved through limited opposition cooperation. Serious cooperation between at least two of the three main opposition parties would undoubtedly make the biggest difference. Strategic cooperation, even if informal, in a handful of carefully selected constituencies could also make a difference, albeit more marginally. But a lot hinges on the delimitation exercise.
The survival of the BDP will also depend highly on how voters receive its policies, especially job creation and poverty eradication. But as it is currently, job creation and poverty eradication strategies for the BDP are a complete flop. People do not seem to see any seriousness from the policy portfolios recently developed by the BDP.
Thank you
