Reshuffle throws up other political possibilities

In the twilight of his term, Mogae forges reconciliation, tightens up governance and reminds us he is still in power ÔÇô writes SUNDAY STANDARD REPORTER
Sometime this week, the third president of the republic looked at the clock in his office. It was ticking towards the end of his political career. A diminutive man of reserve and intellectual disposition, in the ticking of the clock, Festus Mogae saw the twilight of his second, and final term. At a certain time in a restricted term presidency, the incumbent slides imperceptibly into lame duck mode. No one seems to know for a certainty when the lameness sets in. But with little more than a year to go, observers of the local political scene were adamant that Mogae was already a lame duck. Very few imagined him capable of exerting any show of authority. He couldn’t wait to go back to Palapye, they said. The president seemed struck by inertia and disinterest when it came to running the country. A decent, well-meaning man, he was buffeted on all sides. This was despite keeping the country on an even keel, getting the diamond monopolies to play ball on beneficiation and heroically sweeping back the HIV/AIDS tide. With a domineering Vice President and leading a bitterly divided party, Mogae bore semblance of a lame duck. Friday’s decision to restructure his government and undertake a partial reshuffle of the frontbench is, therefore, at odds with the actions of a lame duck; a man of yesterday. If any drastic changes were ever going to be made, many expected them to come from tomorrow’s man, Vice President Ian Khama. In fact, those inside the ruling establishment say for the past couple of months, Mogae has been a lonely man. The incumbents in cabinet were toadying up to his deputy with a long-term view to securing their positions. Sensing the end of the regime, the ambitious were flirting, and seeking to ingratiate themselves with Khama. For strategic reasons, they did not view the president as able to fulfil their ambitions for retention or promotion to higher office. But the new appointments have Mogae written all over them. He made the changes and very few can argue with this analysis.
By returning Ponatshego Kedikilwe from the wilderness, Mogae has done something very few thought was possible.
Mutterings in circles of power were that PHK was finished. He was history because, under a Khama presidency, he would never rebound to any key position.
It was even speculated he would retire from politics in 2009.
By appointing Kedikilwe to the key ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Affairs, the president has not only rehabilitated the man but also extended a gesture of reconciliation to the Barataphati faction of the BDP. Ever since the early nineties, the BDP has engaged in periodic bouts of factionalism. The causes tend to vary from one bout to the other. But when the ruling BDP engages in its bloodletting ritual, governance and service delivery suffer.
In a case where one party has been the dominant political force for the entire post independence era, the country’s well being is wedded to the ebb and flow of its internal dynamics.
The most damaging feuding during Mogae’s tenure was sparked by the 2003 congress when Ian Khama decided to contest the position of chairman held by Kedikilwe.
Although Khama emerged victorious after an acrimonious campaign, the tensions escalated. The situation was not helped by the chaotic primary elections held later that year. In spite of its internal strife, the BDP posted another victory, albeit with its lowest share of the popular vote. But when Mogae announced his new cabinet it was staffed by many new faces that gave rise to accusations of exclusion by Barataphati. None of the faction’s prominent members had been invited to serve. Smarting from the humiliation they, in turn, proceeded to dismiss the cabinet as a factional club comprising Mogae’s friends and Khama’s henchmen from his army days.
Consequently, Kedikilwe’s comeback must be seen as a statement by the president that he intends to heal the festering wounds of factionalism. Informed sources say any long-term stability in the party was contingent on a settlement being reached with his faction. Although rumours of a reshuffle have been doing the rounds for months, leading members of the faction were clear that any shuffling of the pack without Kedikilwe and Kwelagobe being accommodated would be meaningless. Still aware that the new cabinet is heavily lopsided in favour of the A-Team faction, some party members say it’s a step in the right direction, nonetheless. The roots of Mogae’s reconciliatory gesture can be traced to some months ago. With the factions openly trading blows, the president convened two party retreats in succession at which it was resolved to observe a cease-fire. He is understood to have admitted that complaints about exclusion cited by aggrieved faction were genuine and would be looked into. That explains why, since the retreats, the BDP has been enjoying stability. But everyone has been waiting for the president to act. It is reported that Mogae’s move comes at a time when hardliners within the disgruntled faction were advocating for a return to arms because they had been duped into believing their exclusion would end. With Kedikilwe and Kwelagobe now back in the fold, the hardliners have been appeased, and excited party operatives are crowing that the BDP is on a new dawn of unity. But Kedikilwe’s comeback is all the more remarkable because of the portfolio he has been given. His ministry is the most strategic in government because it deals with minerals, which are the country’s biggest revenue earner. For some time, the outgoing Charles Tibone has been the subject of whispers. Allegations of conflict of interest, though never substantiated, made their way round government enclave. It would seem the final straw that led to Tibone’s demotion to the lesser portfolio of Labour and Home Affairs came on the final day of the last sitting of parliament. Citing suspicions of impropriety regarding the transaction, legislators withheld their approval for a 272-million pula loan from the Nordic Investment Bank to finance the one hundred villages electrification programme. Although the President dashed from the airport to plead with legislators in an all-party caucus to pass the loan bill, and further promised to institute a comprehensive investigation, the standing orders would not allow the Bill to be re-tabled immediately. Mogae is a man who abhors corruption and, in the swirl of rumours and innuendo it was critical for him to restore confidence and integrity to the ministry. For the president to opt for someone outside the old cabinet speaks volumes about his desire for a new broom at the ministry.
The other major comeback is that of long serving party Secretary General Daniel Kwelagobe. He was unceremoniously dropped as part of the factional purge after the 2004 elections. Throughout his time in the wilderness, Kwelagobe has been preaching reconciliation while staying close to his factional operatives. Regarded as an acquaintance of the Vice President, his return is also a unity initiative by Mogae.
Strangely for a man whose legendary energies are fading, he has been returned as one of two ministers for Presidential Affairs and Public Administration. It is a plum posting that gives him immense reach and power. Coupled with his position in the party, assuming responsibility for the civil service makes Kwelagobe the third most powerful man in government enclave.
The resurrection of Kedikilwe and Kwelagobe has also thrown up other political possibilities: After his defeat by Khama for the party chairmanship Kedikilwe was effectively a man on the ropes. He was only kept going by his supporters and the best they could hope for was a return to cabinet. Now his return has catapulted him into the race for the Vice Presidency in the coming year. He joins a crowded field of hopefuls including Foreign Affairs minister Mompati Merafhe, Finance Minister Baledzi Gaolathe, Neo Moroka, in charge of Commerce, Trade and Industry and Jacob Nkate at Education.
By ability and experience, Kedikilwe far surpasses the pack and he may be just what Ian Khama will need.
Kwelagobe is also a dark horse for the number two job. Although he is retiring as party Secretary General in July, commentators swear he stands a good chance.
The third notable promotion is of Gaotlhaetse Matlhabaphiri as Assistant Minister at Labour and Home Affairs. He replaces Olifant Mfa, who achieved street credibility, fame or notoriety, depending on which side you are, by expelling foreigners whom he felt had overstayed their welcome. Shunted to the backwaters of Agriculture, he is said not to be very happy. As well as being a unity appointment – third in rank in his faction- Matlhabaphiri is a labour man. He is expected to help Tibone restore order to an anarchic ministry where the previous incumbents did not see eye to eye.
The late Paul Rantao of the opposition Botswana National Front famously accused Festus Mogae of relegating labour issues to the backburners by appointing Moeng Pheto and Mfa to the ministry, two men Rantao had a very slanted view about.
With his background, Matlhabaphiri’s tenure will probably help to improve brittle relations between trade unions and mining houses such as BCL and Debswana.
Mogae has also used his political capital to create a Ministry of Youth, Sports and Culture, which will be led by Moeng Pheto. As for Lebonaamang Mokalake, it’s everyone’s guess how he made it to assistant Minister at Trade. His has been a relatively low-key performance in parliament.
The only time he said something was when he brought a motion calling on parliament to force CEDA to reschedule agricultural loans, prompting accusations that his motion was self serving as he had personal interests in the related agricultural projects.
One colleague of his joked that because someone was needed to deputise Moroka, names were probably put in a hat and his name came out first in the raffle. In a bid not to rock the boat Mogae has not dropped anybody from cabinet. With the exception of the able Peter Siele, who has been shifted to Education as second Deputy Minister, the rest of the cabinet ministers retain their positions. Mogae refrained from wielding the axe on some of the deadwood in cabinet so as not to strengthen a militant backbench with fresh recruits in the form of disaffected ex ministers.
That has happened before.
Also in Mogae’s mind was the reality that some of the belligerents’ loyalties to their factions are questionable, but remain dampened only by reason of the inclusion into cabinet.
A strong fissure could, therefore, easily re-ignite what is in all fairness a healing rift.
It would seem in an attempt to stabilise the party, the President has settled for a bloated cabinet that is the largest in the history of the country.
But by making these extensive changes himself, Mogae wants to demonstrate that he is in charge and is not yet yesterday’s man.
More than that Mogae has also taken the most portent and often used ammunition off his detractors.
The long running accusation levelled against him has been that maintaining people like Pheto, Mfa together with other laggards in his cabinet at the exclusion of the experienced Kedikilwe and Kwelagobe only confirmed that he (Mogae) is also a belligerent who is leading just another party faction that passes for a cabinet.
To underline the show of power, it is said unlike in the past he did not engage in any trade offs with the Vice President. He simply put his foot down and mapped out the state in which he wants to leave the party and government.
Reliable sources confide that in the lead up to unveiling his grand scheme, Mogae had relegated the gaggle of factional activists posing as movers and shakers to the sidelines.
The President was in serious mode. Although a case can still be made for more members of the marginalised faction, like Duke Lefhoko, Keletso Rakhudu and Bosalo Ntuane, to be elevated to cabinet, the inclusion of Kedikilwe, Kwelagobe and Matlhabaphiri (the three senior most factional belligerents) must be considered a calculated move by the President to finally heal the rift in his party before he rides into the sunset to enjoy a quiet retirement between Palapye and Phakalane. Mogae fully knows that exiting the scene, leaving a divided BDP behind would be a black mark on his legacy, a blotch that would haunt him to his grave.
He would forever be derided as the man who had fiddled, smiled and chose to abdicate authority as the party set itself into flames and consumed itself with factional wars. In the twilight of his presidency, the ticking of the clock appears to have revitalised the man anew. As one civil society activist pondered last Friday, “Mogae is now ruling. Why has he not ruled all along?”