The Member of Parliament for Selebi Phikwe West Hon Dithapelo Keorapetse who is also a member of the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) has reportedly been elected by the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) caucus in parliament as the new Leader of Opposition (LOO). This following the suspension of the outgoing LOO Hon Dumelang Saleshando for three months by the UDC from participating in all UDC-related activities. Following the suspension, the caucus was directed by the UDC to convene a meeting the purpose of which was to elect the new LOO albeit on an acting capacity. This piece of unfolding events brings in a variety of implications and ramifications to the overall relationships between and amongst opposition parties in parliament. The reconfiguration of the LOO position puts further to the fore the existing frosty and toxic relationship between the UDC and the BCP which potentially defines how opposition politics will shape up in the build-up to the 2024 general election. At the time of writing, I had not read an official confirmation of Hon Keorapetse’s election though it appeared on various news channels.
The frosty and toxic relationship between the UDC and the BCP largely emanates from the positions of the leader of the UDC Advocate Duma Boko and his Vice Hon Saleshando on the (mis)management of the UDC. The former has proffered an argument that the UDC notwithstanding other challenges, is well and running while his Vice has suggested something entirely to the contrary. This in large measure has thrown UDC politics and by extension that of the opposition into serious credibility test. I hold the view that the conflict between Adv Boko and Hon Saleshanso renders both of them the losers because they need each other for the People’s Project to bear the desired fruits. By each passing day, they keep on drifting far away from each other to their detriment and that of their followers. So what are the implications of the election of Hon Keorapetse as the acting LOO?
Firstly, the first implication has to do with whether the new change of guard brought about by the election Hon Keorapetse will make or break the opposition bloc in parliament. From the beginning of current parliament after the 2019 general election, the overall opposition bloc under Hon Saleshando appeared to be united under his leadership with no known adverse reports. Hon Keorapetse is equally a capable person to assume the position of LOO. That said, the opposition bloc given the emerging change of guard is in a precarious position in that Hon Keoratse’s election was endorsed by a divided BCP because not all its MPs attended the caucus meeting. It will be remembered the BCP issued a directive to its MPs to ignore the UDC parliamentary caucus meeting wherein some heeded it while some did not. The division between BCP MPs which does not begin with the election of Hon Keorapetse but has been in the public domain in the immediate past suggests somewhat, that the camaraderie that existed during Hon Saleshando’s tenure is likely to make Hon Keorapetse’s tenure tumultuous in one respect or the other.
The second implication will be how other opposition political parties in parliament adjust to Hon Keorapetse’s reign. It will be noted that Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) is sympathetic to the UDC as it was seen campaigning for it in the recent Bophirima ward by election while the Alliance for Progressives (AP) is sympathetic to the BCP for having campaigned with it in the same by election. These alliances of convenience should tell us that opposition cooperation in parliament following the change of guard in the LOO position will never be the same. As LOO, Hon Keorapetse is going to present public statements on issues of national importance, present Motions and Private Members’ Bills. From what I have observed when Hon Saleshando was LOO, opposition MPs appeared to embrace whatever he brought to parliament like the Motion of No Confidence on President Masisi and his government. Given the now palpable differences occasioned by the new alliances of convenience, it becomes hard if not impossible to suggest how the adversarial conduct from the new alliances of convenience will not negatively impact the smooth relationships in opposition parties in parliament.
Thirdly, the ruling Botswana Democratic Party should be smiling from ear to ear because while it has been rudely exposed for its inefficiencies and effectiveness consequent to its shoddy dealings with regards to socio-economic circumstances facing Batswana by a combined opposition, such combined voice from the opposition could be fading into oblivion. The sustained sharp and consistent instances where the BDP’s back has been on the wall since the 2019 general election by the combined opposition could become ineffective to the BDP’s rescue particularly in the home stretch to the 2024 general election.
Fourthly, the BCP could decide to go for broke in taking disciplinary action against those MPs who are its members and who defied the party instruction not to attend the UDC parliamentary caucus meeting. The disciplinary action could result in the ‘renegade’ MPs suspended or even expelled from the party. While suspension or even expulsion will not affect their positions as MPs, it will however further the already strained relationship between them and the party in more ways than one. One such is that if suspended, they could be barred from participating in the BCP’s party activities. Their escape route presumably if and when expelled will be to seek refuge at the Botswana National Front (BNF) whose leader, arguably, has in more profound manner through his commission or omission, precipitated the unfolding state of affairs in opposition politics particularly with respect to the UDC.
Whereas the above may in part or otherwise pan out the way I suggest or not, the compelling reality nevertheless is that opposition politics in parliament will in the immediate future never be the same again to the detriment of the UDC in the last stretch to the 2024 general election. One can feel the palpable animosity between ordinary members of the opposition parties whether in private or through social media platforms. I have personally talked to some of them. The ante has been upped to fever pitch with about two to the 2024 general election and nothing suggest the situation will relent anytime soon. At the end of the day, the turmoil in opposition politics diminishes any reasonable prospect of regime change in 2024. For now and until something dramatic and spectacular points to the contrary, the BDP is smiling from ear to ear and in the process, smelling blood. The luck of political lotto would not have come at the right time when the chips looked ever so down. As it is synonymous with the UDC, it continues to drop the ball at critical phases of its political cycles. It has once more dropped the ball the hardest to the ground. I am prepared to be persuaded otherwise as always. Judge for Yourself!
‘No one is safe until everyone is safe’. Covid-19 pandemic is still our immediate health threat. Let us all comply with all Covid-19 health protocols. It is our civic duty to do so.
