The arrival of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) on Botswana’s political playground elicited excitement and hope for a change of government. Indeed there is little doubt that the coalition has transformed the competitiveness of national politics in Botswana.
There is also no denying that the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has been shaken to the core and is failing to recover from the regular sucker punches delivered by the opposition. The universal truth is that the UDC has generated a huge surge of support for opposition politics.
Basically, the UDC landed on the political scene like a golden child of a couple that has been hitting a blank for ages, because since 1965, all attempts to unite opposition parties for the purpose of dethroning the BDP having been failing with devastating consequences.
The feeling among the opposition cadres was that the UDC was like the biblical son of Adam, destined to achieve what other electoral coalitions in Senegal, Liberia, Malawi and so forth have achieved by ending decades of one-party dominance.
The UDC, comprising the BNF, BPP and BMD went into the 2014 general election carrying the hopes of many Batswana who craved regime change. To the uninitiated, The BCP had taken a decision to go solo citing the BNF’s big brother attitude as their reason for not affiliating to the UDC.
At the end, the BDP retained state power and the failure of the UDC to dethrone the BDP was blamed on the BCP’s decision to remain outside of the umbrella. Yet, the results of the election served as an emphatic lesson that only a fully united opposition could unseat the BDP.
Conscious of this reality, the expectation was that the BCP which has suffered humiliation after winning only three parliamentary constituencies would humble themselves and seek refuge under the umbrella, for the nation’s benefit and their own survival. That was indeed the logical expectation and the right thing to do.
So when in August 2017 the BCP legislators assumed official recognition as members of the UDC, voters celebrated in anticipation of a wholly united opposition for the 2019 general election.
However, whilst the UDC leadership was busy courting the BCP, one of the UDC contracting parties, BMD, had its members embroiled in internecine struggle for the control of the party. The struggle eventually led to the BMD splitting when some of its prominent members left to form a new party- the Alliance for Progressives (AP).
This BMD split exposed the fragility of the coalition particularly in terms of the instability of the contracting parties with potential to rock the titan called the UDC. At first the BMD troubles did not look like they could damage the UDC since this was not a UDC split but a splitting of a contracting partner.
However, the reality with the BMD split was that there was a new opposition party outside of the UDC which has to be persuaded to join the UDC. By all accounts, the AP was not averse to joining the UDC as a new political spouse.
Yet, the bad blood between the AP and the BMD meant that the two could not, under any circumstances, share a space hence the UDC had to exercise extreme caution lest they find themselves caught between the BMD/AP wars that could destabilize the fragile umbrella project.
Whether we liked it or not, the BMD split was bound to inflict indefinable pain to the image of the UDC. It is a fact that after the split, the BMD never really looked like a prized political asset which is why the UDC leadership did not struggle to suspend and ultimately expel them for questioning the BCP membership of the UDC.
At the same time the BMD was acting like a problem child, the petty BPP also resolved boycott all UDC activities in protest against the inclusion of the BCP in the umbrella. In another related development also around the same time, the all-powerful federation of trade unions (BOFEPUSU) which was instrumental in the formation of the UDC voided its working relationship with the coalition arguing that the UDC had lost direction.
Relatedly, UDC’s attempts to rope in the AP failed at the first hurdle when the AP allegedly set impossible conditions for preliminary talks. In effect, the general elections were contested by the ruling BDP, the UDC [consisting of BNF, BCP and the ever grumbling BPP], the bitter BMD that acted like a marriage wrecker and the softie AP that acted like a trainee witch.
Thus, while the BNF, BCP and BPP coalesced under the umbrella stable for the 2019 general election, the reality is that the opposition went into the election badly divided to as usual gift the BDP victory. The hopes and morale initially rejuvenated by the coming to the party by the BCP became just a fad.
As was expected, the results of the 2019 general election again showed that a fully united opposition would trounce the ruling BDP on any day. Like hopeless beggars who get excited every time they see their caretaker carrying a shopping bag, opposition members have good reason to be excited whenever opposition parties talk about working together.
But the daily talk about working together has become a bore and is dispiriting. Whereas no one expected the work of bringing the various small, self-seeking groups together to be a walk in the park, the amount of time and resources expended by the UDC in engaging with some of these stunted, stingy family-sized parties with little-men syndrome could be put to productive use by vigorously opposing the actions of the government.
By nature, a coalition is likely to have the greatest impact when all key opposition parties operate as a single unit having one unambiguous election message. But it has become counter-productive for the UDC to be spending most of the time in boardrooms negotiating with groups that behave like dirty village girls who dream of marrying billionaires.
When a group of BDP members decided to form a splinter party, the BPF in 2019, they did so in the full knowledge that there already exists other branded opposition parties and a formidable opposition coalition that has cemented its place as a legitimate heir to the throne.
There was nothing stopping the dissidents from joining one of the established parties or the UDC except in giving meaning to the expression that politics is about the struggle for power and wealth.
Essentially, the formation of peripheral parties parallel to the UDC seems to be motivated by narrow self-interests rather than the desire to serve the nation. Already the UDC has initiated discussions with the BPF and other small things that actually get a lot of publicity from these engagements.
This has led the UDC to propagate a reactionary and opportunistic pattern of politics where it spends more time in boardrooms rather than doing robust campaigning and recruiting new members. As a result of the boardroom politics, the UDC has failed to build stable and effective structures because the coalition has many sell-outs and traitors as it has adept politicians in its ranks.
Thus, the UDC is experiencing both of the worlds. On the one hand the coalition has fought hard to project the image of a united and determined alliance that does not discriminate potential members on account of their political histories.
On the other hand, hardline opposition cadres opine that the image of the opposition has been mortgaged by integration of former prominent ruling party functionaries into the opposition household, with far-reaching consequences.
It is a fact that the appearance of the UDC on Botswana’s political space has significantly transformed party politics such that the sleepy Joes have been awakened. But it is also a fact that the UDC’s decision to bring into its fold dissidents from the ruling party has actually diluted opposition politics leaving the UDC to look like a broad church that accommodates all and sundry regardless of their beliefs.
The upshot of it all is that while the UDC fiercely opposes the ruling party, its focus is merely limited to the incompetence and the corruption of the leadership of the ruling party rather than on policy disagreements. This has left the rank and file confused and just hanging on because most have spent all of their lives in opposition politics such that the opposition has become their ancestral home.
Going forward, the UDC must stop being desperate for power and grow from inside. The UDC should not be running after splinter parties that act like slay queens for the reality is that these tiny parties need UDC more than UDC needs them. Their integration into the UDC has been a source of instability as it means that the coalition is clearly a house of cards. Or else the UDC will continue to walk backward like the hummingbird.
