2018 is a milestone year for Botswana’s political parties as it present itself as a year for the congresses that must shape the parties’ resolve on how they intend to prepare themselves for the 2019 general elections. This is particularly so for those that would hold elective congresses because they will be putting up a leadership that they say will drive the party’s mobilisation, consolidation and strategic preparedness for the 2019 contest. 2018 has seen major developments within both the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) and the opposition parties as individual entities and as a collective under the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) coalition.
After a lengthy debate and permutations of lobby lists and campaigns, the BDP is the first to have had an elective congress over this past weekend in Tonota. The Vice President’s team whitewashed the other team in all contested positions with seemingly relative ease, given the wide margins. It is from these that questions are been asked as to what these congress results mean for the BDP. A number of possible scenarios could be discerned from this; first is that the Vice President’ team’s victory could mean a more united leadership of the party with a common strategic outlook on how to prepare and strategize for 2019 and therefore presumably meaning a more united BDP, which might jerk up their potential to increase the popular support and potentially wining more constituencies than they did in 2014. This is more possible if the winners find a way to reach out to those who lost and are able to find and agree to work together as party members. If it was about the party and not individuals or groups within the party then this reaching out gesture should strengthen the BDP.
Secondly, how the elected leadership handles the primary elections is going to be a defining moment for the BDP. The new leadership could reach out and use the primary elections to advance an inclusive gesture to those party members who were on the other team and therefore appeal to all BDP members or choose to purge further any members who were/are associated with the other camp. The latter move will obviously create tensions and a possible repeat of previous primary elections effects, amongst those would be resignations, independent candidates, crossing over to the opposition camp or internal destabilization activities that includes BDP members DE campaigning BDP candidates and even voting for opposition candidates. The elective congress has gone and past and delivered a positive verdict for now, but the greatest challenge is the BDP approaches, manages and runs its primary elections. It is this exercise that is going to provide a much more clearer perspective on how the Vice President and his team intends to run the party going forward and this will also be an indicator of what kind/type of BDP will enter the 2019 elections. The third, and probably less possible, scenario, is the reaction of the losing camp to the congress results. There are possibly two ways they would react; firstly, they could say the party delegates have spoken and unconditionally accept the loss and buckle up to play their roles as BDP activists and rally behind and support the victors. This will enhance party unity and provide more strength to the party’ campaign strategies. Alternatively, depending on the basis of their campaign, they could see their loss as maybe a resolve by the party to push for an agenda that they are not comfortable with and choose to seek alternative ways of presenting their viewpoint either within or even outside the BDP functional structures and activities. This would mean a potential for a few to simply become passive members or activists joining the opposition voice against the BDP. I want to believe that the reaction of these individuals is going to largely depend on how the new leadership treats them going forward especially in terms of whether or not they are included in party structures and other key positions such as appointments as primary election candidate, and/or appointments to cabinet positions and others. This is a testing tie for the new BDP leadership, the ball is in their court and where and how they play it will define the BDP’s prospects come 2019.
On the opposition side, the initial consolidation of the membership, the Botswana Congress Party (BCP) finally came on board into the UDC camp, was seen as the last necessary step present a more solid and purposeful opposition in 2019. New developments emerged that still put questions to the strength and vibrancy of a united opposition. First was the issue of allocation of constituencies amongst UDC party members, which created some tensions and mistrust among members even after allocations completed on the basis of what was reported to be an agreed criteria by members. This aspect is yet to be finally put to rest conclusively and for the general satisfaction and appreciation of all UDC party members. The longer this drags on the potential of it undermining solidarity and consolidation of strategic preparations for 2019 campaigns and that can only derail brighter prospects for the UDC and its membership. The 2014 results has created a reason to be hopeful and efforts towards a united opposition are deemed to be a priority for the UDC.
There has been developments within the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD), mainly the fight amongst the leaderships in the National Executive Committee, for the control of the party. This has been paralysing the BMD for a long time now and it also affects the UDC’s functionality in a big way. The instability within the BMD is going to affect how the UDC prepares and projects itself to the electorates in preparation for 2019. The weekend’s BMD congress is probably a make or break activity where the soul and breathe of the party will and ought to be decided by the membership. Two main scenarios are likely to occur; the general membership could take responsibility and normalise the impasse as the constitution mandates them to or the congress may be marred by factional tensions and fail to allow members the chance to even make decisions. The latter would further estrange and polarise factional wars in the party and this will extend further the fight for the control of the BMD. This would further create an impasse and challenge to the UDC’s campaign strategies for 2019 as it will have a critical member unable to participate meaningfully. How the BMD resolves this long factional wars at its elective congress is critical to how the UDC proceeds in preparations for 2019. It is one sore development that requires urgent resolution for the good of the UDC as a collective.
*Dan Molaodi teaches Public Administration at the University of Botswana
