Predictions on succession might yet prove too premature.
But subterranean wars to determine succession have already begun – at ruling party level and also at government.
The hugs, the smooches and serenity on the surface belie a lot of power struggles playing out beneath.
Quite manifestly, it is not a done deal yet that vice president Slumber Tsogwane will ultimately succeed Mokgweetsi Masisi as State President.
There are too many pretenders waiting in the wings.
And not even the president is sure of who he will ultimately settle for. He is transparently setting the candidates against each other. It works for him as the arbiter. It increases his power and stranglehold over contestants.
The president has been swinging between Peggy Serame and Kefentse Mzwinila.
Serame is minister of finance.
Mzwinila, an elitist snob, is minister responsible for water and lands.
Both are specially elected Members of Parliament.
Crucially for Serame, she has recently been elected chair of the ruling party women’s wing.
Additionally, she has steered clear of the corruption swamp flowing across government.
That is not all.
Masisi is vulnerable to creating impressions of being the first to do anything.
He might want to become the first president to appoint a woman successor.
Mpho Balopi might be defeated today, but he has not been vanquished. Far from it.
His has been on a tactical retreat so that he might live to fight another day.
Succession is always one of the biggest things occupying the mind of an incumbent.
They worry a lot whether or not they will get it correct.
The reason for that is often selfish. Not only do they want to see somebody who shares their worldview carrying on the mettle, they also want to be sure that they are safe beyond their term limits. Ian Khama, like many others across the world got the last one wrong.
For the incumbent, succession is all about self-validation.
An incumbent craves a successor who will forever say how great their predecessor had been.
For that reason, succession has to be managed correctly.
By definition, a successful succession, at least as seen through the prism of the person managing, who is the incumbent, it is nothing short of perpetual enslavement of the successor.
And what better way to demonstrate that enslavement than by infinite acclamation of the predecessor long after they have left the stage.
But there is always a danger of micromanaging the process and in the end getting it totally wrong.
That has happened in Botswana’s case.
Former president Ian Khama left it until it was too late.
Ultimately events spiraled out of his control.
That is why too often than not, there is a temptation among leaders to change the constitution to allow themselves to stay beyond the dictates of a term limit.
As vice president, Slumber Tsogwane is a presumptive successor – at least in law. Unfortunately in real life no such certainties exist.
In politics, especially on succession nothing is ever cast in stone.
Yet evidently, longevity has its own virtues.
Tsogwane is among the longest serving MPs in parliament today.
Few will remember that former president Festus Mogae once appointed him assistant minister of finance and development planning.
It is a job few have taken seriously. David Magang once occupied it as did Samson Moyo Guma before he was sacked by Mompati Merafhe acting with the express authority of President Ian Khama.
It has not escaped Tsogwane’s team that their man recently won the chairmanship of the party not because of any president’s backing, but despite not having it.
They are eager to point out that the president did not endorse Tsogwane.
The image that Tsogwane has cultivated in the public psyche especially towards the president is that of a sycophant who defers inordinately.
Unlike Masisi who is a princeling of sorts. Tsogwane is an outsider with virtually no establishment connections. In Botswana politics, this means he has to work triply harder to get anything.
This means that he comes into the race heavily discounted. To say he is an underdog is to downplay what odds he is really up against.
If it happens that he gets the presidency, Tsogwane will have a bigger claim much more than even Festus Mogae who by the time he became head of state was an accomplished, distinguished and heavily decorated international technocrat.
Tsogwane came into politics with essentially nothing other than a teaching qualification. All that is now history.
The truth is today Tsogwane matters – in both party and government.
And quite visibly, his grip on power is growing.
He has become a shrewd and astute political operator – more at ease with his political work at the party and also in parliament than in cabinet.
What he lacks in confidence he makes up for it in his abrasive, never say die style.
His treatment of his friend and former classmate, Shaw Kgathi was over the mark and left too many people speechless. He threw away all caution out through the window.
To his detractors it was a new low, a reflection of the unknown side of the man – a scary side were he to get power.
They go further to say as VP he has not given even a hint of what his vision for the country is were he to get the ultimate trophy.
His proximity to power – just a heartbeat away – means that increasingly he is aware of where the bodies are buried.
His people watch with growing disgust as their man is often denied a place at the top table and sidelined on key and sensitive decisions.
They are however happy that sidelining him helps him to keep his hands clean.
More welcome but still annoying for them is the fact that their man is often left outside the room when it’s time to share the spoils of power – in other words the proceeds of crime.
