For the second time in less than twelve months the opposition umbrella for Democratic Change looks like it is on a deathbed.
It is  dejavu all over again.
Botswana Congress Party is unhappy with the Botswana National Front.
And a BCP central committee meeting is scheduled to address the party concerns.
This is a big deal.
Historically, the BNF and BCP have not had an easy relationship.
In fact the BCP broke out of the BNF just over twenty years ago.
As was the case last year, the BCP is unhappy with a whole lot of things inside the UDC.
To summarise the exhaustive list, the BCP is unhappy that Duma Boko is running UDC alone.
The BCP is unhappy that there is no consultation inside the UDC.
Boko, we must hasten to point out is leader of both the UDC and the BNF.
It looks like things are this time around worse than was the case last year.
If the BCP could do it, they could just walk out of the UDC.
But it is not that easy. And that is where things start to get really blurred.
The fight over who should stand in the by-elections is making an already bad situation get really ugly.
One thing is clear, the BCP, or at least a part of it that is loyal to the leader is very angry.
One BCP guy told me they are convinced they are in an abusive relationship.
The trouble though is that the BCP today is no longer as united as it once was.
As the party has grown it has become less monolithic and less homogenic.
Dumelang Saleshando is the leader. But his word inside the party does not carry as much weight like it used to.
There are other voices there openly defy him.
There is no one view on how to approach Duma Boko.
So diverse are the voices on the matter that there are some among them who say Boko is doing a splendid job.
This alone further limits options available to the BCP because internally there is no consensus even on the nature and severity of the problem.
This calls on the BCP to revise its overall; political strategy – the strategy that has up to now served the BCP so well.
Coalition and alliance politics are by nature hard.
The BCP should not run for the exit door every time they come into trouble inside the UDC.
Running for the door every time there is a problem ultimately undermines the BCP position inside the UDC.
Running for the door paints both Saleshando and the BCP into a tight corner from which escape is almost impossible.
The BNF is heading for an elective congress.
The party is in the middle of a campaign.
Duma Boko is facing challenge from Bucs Molathegi.
The least BCP could do is to allow its partner to go through an internal process without a hiccup.
By choosing to ranchette long standing complaints against Boko, the BCP is in a way influencing events at the BNF.
Not every BNF member will like this.
I have said before, that Saleshando is one of the most experienced national politicians in the country. Save for Kabo Morwaeng, as I am writing this I can’t think of anybody else inside cabinet today who comes close to Saleshando in political experience.
He should ‘know better.
The most he can do is to watch BNF shenanigans from a distance and quietly hope his man wins.
But to choose such a moment, when Boko is at his vulnerable to strike smacks not just of strategic naivete but also political immaturity.
There is no doubt that Saleshando has been unhappy with Boko for some time.
That was actually the main reason for the two going on a retreat in the Okavango.
The timing to pull the trigger now will make matters worse.
What the BCP is doing complicates matters at multiple levels.
It might ignite rebellion inside the BCP itself.
Boko will naturally interpret the BCP decision as clearly designed to prop up his opponent.
The challenger, Bucs Molathegi might be looked at as a BCP appendage who is conniving with them to oust a BNF leader.
Among BNF loyalists this will plant seeds of doubt about Dr Molathegi’s capability to fight for the BNF in the face of an ever aggressive BCP.
It is totally unlikely that the BNF members will ever welcome BCP leadership of the UDC as price to pay for the elusive quiescence of the coalition.
Thus what the BCP is doing might ultimately backfire and work against Dr Molathegi too.
The BNF and BCP members are acutely aware that they are engaged in an endless political competition that has at its centre the control and domination of the Umbrella for Democratic Change.
Whatever happens, it is now inevitable that relations between BCP and the BNF will reach a new low.
Even if Boko was to emerge the winner of the BNF contest, there is no question of him forgetting what the BCP has done to him.
He will not dismiss this weekend events as your run of the mill BCP political gambit.
In fact more than ever before, he will see the BCP as nothing short of hostage takers rather political partners.
We have been here before when Saleshando demanded that UDC be democratized. And he climbed down.
It will be particularly interesting to see how he walks this back as he previously did.
The fact that BCP is doing this at a time when Boko is facing internal challenge will make him see them and especially Saleshando as a hostage taker rather than a political partner.
The BCP Central Committee meeting might look innocuous.
It is not.
It actually is a potential deal breaker.
And nobody – save may be for the BDP – should actually be happy with what is happening at the UDC.
