The United States intelligence is believed to have an interest in Botswana’s non-governmental organisations (NGOs), influential personalities and other not state actors in protecting American interests in Botswana.
A study by American intelligence expert from the National Defence Intelligence, David T. More under the headline “Sensemaking ÔÇô A structure for an intelligence revolution,” has revealed that the American intelligence has developed an interest in non state actors to protect its interests abroad.
The report which cites Botswana among countries studies states that, “non state actors present both a challenge to United States interests and an opportunity for advancing those interests. The United States would like to mitigate those challenges and take advantage of the opportunities.”
The study quotes heavily from another study by the Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies which compiled a report on a number of African studies among them Botswana. The Mercyhurst report did a comparative study on Botswana, a “stable country” and Central African Republic a “failed state” and came to the conclusion that the potential roles for non state actors in both countries were equal. In a scale of one out of five, the report scored both Botswana and Central African Republic at four suggesting a very high potential for a role to be played by non state actors.
Justifying keeping tabs on non state actors, the report by US intelligence expert argued that, “some non state actors are likely to act in a fashion that is completely unexpected and with unanticipated results. On the other hand, overestimating the influence of non state actors might create self fulfilling prophecies. If though the influence of non state actors is accurately measured it may be possible to mitigate that influence. (Where the non state actors are acting on interests at odds with those of the United States.)
Alternatively, where non state actors are acting in consonance with the interests of the United States or are able to exploit opportunities put in place to get them to be helpful, the United States fulfils its goals.”
The report stated that non state actors present “both a challenge to United States interests and an opportunity for advancing those interests.”The United States would like to mitigate those challenges and take advantage of the opportunities.”
Botswana presents an example of a country where the non state actors can be most effective. The Mercyhurst study found that non state actors, both legal and extralegal are least effective in authoritarian states.