Botswana Congress Party leader, Dumelang Saleshando has over the last few weeks been talking about the possibility of his party joining the UDC (Umbrella for Democratic Change).
It is a sign of how badly hurt he has been by the results of the General Elections last year.
At great risk of revolt from ordinary members, UDC leadership has on the other hand been extending Saleshando a rare opportunity for a climb down so that he could get out of all the difficulties with a clean face.
But instead of seizing on these with his both hands, he has resorted to talking in tongues.
“The BCP will join, but not just yet,” is the best way to summarize his many mixed messages.
Even those closest to him are not sure if he really has his heart on joining the UDC.
This is because his messages have been laced with difficult to decipher philosophical and sometimes parabolic codes.
The most difficult to understand was when he recently said he wanted a fair deal for the BCP.
He does not say what that fair deal would be. Does he want a senior position created for himself inside the UDC?
Does he want a special dispensation created for BCP inside the UDC?
Does he want to take UDC on the kind of protracted negotiations that have in the past collapsed leading his BCP to opt out?
These are just some of the many vexing questions that confound those of us who have been trying to understand Saleshando from a distance. If there is any place where BCP can seek a fair deal, it should be with the voter. The re3cent outcomes have however not been so encouraging.
Whatever his motives, Saleshando’s maneuvers are far from being strategic. His motives are not in the interest of the BCP. They also are not in his own political career interest.
He is adopting a kind of high risk brinkmanship the consequences of which he can hardly afford if things do not go his way.
BCP of today is a much weaker party than it was going into elections last year.
Additionally, there is no shortage of BCP disdain inside the UDC. The BCP leader is thus advised to tread with caution. He should not push his luck too far.
Instead of making an already bad situation worse with his outlandish demands and posturing, Saleshando must provide leadership by taking difficult decisions during what are certainly the most difficult moments for himself and his party.
Instead of trying to extract deals Saleshando should be pushing full steam for entry into the UDC. The rest will follow.
If there are any deals he wants for himself or for his party, he can only try a hand at those once he is inside.
Otherwise he risks being overtaken by events.
The biggest risk for the BCP is that any further delays might lead to the party splitting.
Already his party has been losing some key activists to the predatory Botswana Democratic Party which has been waiting not too far in the wings, with a clear vested interest of what becomes of BCP’s existential future.
Another risk is that further delay might embolden those hardliners inside the UDC who are against even talking to the BCP. These are the people who say BCP can never be trusted. Among them are those who say BCP robbed them victory at the elections last year and in a way has been consorting with the BDP.
The solution to all these is simple: BCP must stop fighting past cultural wars and decide once and for all what role it wants to carve for itself in the fast unfolding national political theatre.
BCP’s traditional strategy to avoid taking difficult decisions is no longer feasible.
The same applies to their revolving door tendency to shift goal posts in their dealings with other political parties.
My biggest worry and this much I hope Saleshando appreciates, is that for the BCP the issue has gone past nuances of relevance or lack thereof. It now borders narrowly on existential fundamentals.
There is a misplaced assumption at BCP, curiously shared by some in the UDC leadership that victory against the BDP is impossible without BCP joining UDC. The truth is that while extremely hard, such victory is indeed possible for UDC. Thus the current window for BCP to join will not by itself remain open forever.
They may be exaggerating it, but too many UDC hard-line supporters are increasingly of the firm view that to their party, the BCP is now nothing much more than a trophy purchase. They see no intrinsic value in the BCP joining, especially if such joining means making concessions.
These are the people who would rather take the highroad of dismantling the BCP than have it join UDC as a unit.
These are the people who believe that their leadership is being too lenient on BCP, and that any concessions to BCP are totally uncalled for.
Broadly, UDC members want BCP to join their coalition, but only if such joining is unconditional.
They listen to their leaders talk about negotiations, and they do not like what they hear.
They will particularly take unkindly if any special dispensation is created for the BCP or its leader for that matter.
Quite unintentionally, Saleshando’s call for fair deals is giving undue ammunition to these hardliners.
For some time now some sections of the BCP have been talking about a Memorandum of Understanding for by-elections.
What this means is not exactly clear to UDC supporters.
Because no such thing exists for exiting UDC composite members, an impression is being created that BCP attempts at joining are half-hearted, calculated to stem the current problems that the party is facing.
And this irritates UDC supporters to the brink that once again BCP is trying to cheat.
