In every crisis, there is hope. With 3,172 confirmed cases and 16 deaths in Botswana as at the 4th October 2020, and 34 804 348 confirmed cases globally, one may wonder what the future holds. The recently extended state of public emergency for another six months was an attempt by the government to curtail the spread and transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Although research for a vaccine is at breakneck speed, no-one knows how effective any of them will be. Not to sound cynical, we do not know how long the health and economic crisis we are in will last.
The latest domestic growth data released by Statistics Botswana is a reflection of the impact of the pandemic on the economy. Growth shrunk by 24% during the second quarter of 2020 compared to an increase of 3% in the same quarter of 2019. The economic recession can be felt in most sectors of the economy, including the informal sector. It is not only a domestic crisis but a global one.
Two professors at the International Institute for Management Development, in May 2020, Michael Watkins and Michael Yaziji, surveyed 460 global executives on how they expect COVID-19 to affect their organisations in the short- and long- term. The findings revealed that respondents (more than 50%) expected all of the economic sectors to be impacted severely in the first six months (short-term), with 91% and 71% of respondents indicating Travel/Tourism and Architectural/Engineering to be the hardest hit, respectively. About 60% of respondents presumed the same sectors to remain severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic beyond 6 months. Only 39% of the respondents anticipated that the software/technology sector will be severely impacted beyond 6 months.
Notwithstanding, amid a crisis lies opportunities. To survive during this period companies and organisations have resorted to holding back key projects, managing loss of revenue, finding alternative sources of revenue, etc. These are however short-term survival measures, and often, managers and owners, including small businesses, would be consumed addressing these short-term impacts with less focus on addressing long-term impacts of the pandemic on the business.
The question is, what does it take for businesses to thrive during this challenging environment? To flourish, only a long-term perspective is required. It is this perspective that will propel the company or organisation to prosper. Does this mean the short-term measures should be dealt away with? The answer is, no. Managing losses should be coupled with identifying post-COVID-19 crisis opportunities. This involves taking risks to invest in these opportunities. This would be by far a key differentiator between surviving and thriving. It is during this challenging environment that companies, including small business, should assess the long-term impact of the crisis, how it would shift market trends, and in turn, prepare for any permanent changes. This includes preparing for post-crisis threats. It is the ability to look beyond the horizon that will shape the future of any business.
Disclaimer: Otisitswe K. Tawana-Madziba is the founder of Fin-Edu. For comments kindly send an email to [email protected] or visit www.fin-edubw.com.
