I am writing this from a cold hotel room in Grahamstown where we are attending a meeting on behalf of Botswana Editors Forum. It would have been nice to go out for a drink, but the harsh weather is keeping us all indoors.  The people here are amazingly warm. A university city, Grahamstown is typically English in both its architecture and lifestyle. The city is, by South African standards, very small, but it is very lively indeed. News from back home confirm what some of us have always known was inevitable.
The BDP National Chairman, Samson Moyo Guma, and Secretary General Mpho Balopi are barely speaking to each other. It is a story of which I have been aware of for at least three week’s now.
Officially, there is a tussle for power. It is a contest over who really is the second in command. But there is a sub-text to it. It is the beginning of many many side-battles that will continue to plague the BDP until the issue of succession has been comprehensively resolved; with clear winners and clear losers. President Ian Khama must be having a time of his life.?He likes it when his cronies go for each other’s throat.
A closer look at the BDP constitution will reveal that both positions of Chairman and Secretary General are nothing more than ceremonial. Whatever comes out of them is wholly at the grace of the master. Both positions are appendages made to support the real authority, which is the party President. On account of the arms-length management style of past presidents, an entirely wrong impression was created that the two positions ÔÇô especially Secretary General – were somewhat powerful positions. The marriage between Guma and Balopi was always going to be a fraught one.
It was only good when it lasted. And upon breakup, as it now seems ever more likely many people will come to see that it was not just a marriage of convenience, but also the one stitched in hell. Two salient points define just why the two men were neither meant for each other nor going to be hugger-mugger for long.
Albeit to differing degrees, both men are exceedingly domineering breed of control freaks. The second point is that either creature is a self-centred megalomaniac with a bloated sense of self-regard.
When we pointed out Balopi’s apparent political naivety when he was first made BDP Secretary General after Kentse Rammidi unceremoniously resigned, some of us were accused of brazen envy and jealousy towards him because we were not as successful.
It was an atrocious and melancholy attack on the integrity of our motives.
Gladly for us, with time we have been proven right. The same happened when we highlighted Guma’s personal weaknesses after his ill-fated victory at ┬áMaun in July. But all those are only side issues.
The tussle for turf between BDP’s top ┬átwo, who only a few weeks ago were an item, not only in politics but also business, should be seen against a much bigger context. This struggle is exactly what the doctor has ordered. In fact, the fight is a prelude to a much bigger and potentially destructive one. As one of the BDP clan puts it, for the first time in our history no one knows who the Vice President will be.
“When Seretse Khama died, Masire was the clear heir apparent. In fact, there was never a vote at the caucus. ┬áFestus Mogae was always known to be Masire’s successor due to automatic succession. Since the birth of the republic, we find ourselves with no heir apparent, with a transition only thirteen months away…Why so? Will this cause instability? Does it solidify the ruler’s grip on power?”
He could not have put it more succinctly.
For the last few months, every little monkey under the BDP tent has fancied itself as a future Vice President, with their eyes set on the ultimate trophy. This is to  go on,  creating a situation where protagonists fight like rats in a bag, very much like what we are seeing between Guma and Balopi.
This is a deliberate ploy by Khama to retain absolute power or, at the very least, to delay the lame duck period for as long as it’s humanly possible. Having seen the pain of irrelevance that Festus Mogae went through the moment he was discounted as all allegiance shifted to the future king, Khama does not want to suffer the same fate.
He wants to retain not just power but relevance to the last minute. It’s keeping in kind. Already there is talk that after PHK Kedikilwe there might still yet be another caretaker Vice President. It may sound crazy, but it’s very much in line with Khama’s philosophy; it’s always about the self, never the republic.
Having been prepared for the presidency for no less than ten years, it does not seem to bother him that his own successor will have less than four years to learn the ropes.
And, it can also be added that Mogae was an immensely generous personality who allowed his deputy to run the show even before his time was up. Which, given his executive-mindedness and love for control, Khama will not just hate but also actively work to ensure it does not happen.
The new question that we must now grapple with as a nation should be whether or not Khama will leave when his time is finally up.
Or are we headed for a Russian style autocracy where Vladimir Putin leaves only in name as he continues to literally run the show from under the shadows, bidding his time before propping upfront again? It is an ugly prospect. Thankfully for me, the meanly cold breezes sweeping across the Eastern Cape valleys are top of my mind because I can’t go out for a drink.
