The South African President Cyril Ramaphosa hereinafter referred to as CR is between a rock and a hard place following the criminal complaint laid against him by the erstwhile spy boss Arthur Fraser. The scandal has divided South Africans of all persuasions including academics and politicians right down the middle. For the politicians including those from the ruling African National Congress (ANC) who are his detractors, the scandal would not have come at the right time. CR has so far given very little information to rebut Fraser’s allegations presumably from his political and legal advisors. A balanced opinion about the scandal is therefore difficult because nothing much is known from his side. Ordinarily, a person in his circumstances would have resigned on points of moral and ethical conduct where he would say: while I have not been found guilty as a consequence of any legal process or otherwise, I tender my resignation out of respect for the high office I hold. Not so for an African President. It is as rare as snow is in Botswana. They leave office when all else has failed to keep them in the position. CR’s farm gate scandal has both political and legal implications where one or all of them could eject him from the high office.
Owing to the fact that other Presidents with far worse allegations against them (and I am not playing down CR’s case), would CR with relatively far less serious allegations than them forego the trappings of the high office? I don’t think so because if he were to take sabbatical leave or resign his position, it be misconstrued in some quarters as a sign of accepting culpability in the matter. Inevitably, this would give his political detractors substantial edge to mount a vicious campaign to remove him. From a purely political point, it will be suicidal for him to consider either taking sabbatical leave or completely resigning his position as a State President. Resigning from this position will have a ripple effect in that it will culminate in him losing his position as the President of the ANC. To fend off any likelihood of him losing his positions as State and ANC President respectively, he will have to rely on the ANC and its members in parliament to help him survive his current scare. Given the high political temperature in the ANC, it will without doubt be a bitter battle for him to survive. On the political front therefore, it appears CR could survive.
The legal part of the criminal complaint as laid by Arthur Fraser could have adverse implications for CR should it be proved beyond any reasonable doubt that indeed CR has committed a criminal offence consequent to the alleged theft of money at his farm. It is common knowledge that CR on his version put his business interests under the blind trust arrangement as soon as he became the Deputy President in 2014 and President in 2018. The inference from this is that all his business interests were managed on his behalf by independent business individuals. If any criminality of any sort occurred at his businesses under the blind trust arrangement, would CR be held accountable for the theft at his farm simply on the point that he owns it? Why would the said business individuals not be held culpable for the wrongs that took place under their watch? These are complex legal questions requiring legal answers. Fraser is resolute in his complaint that forex transgressions, kidnappings and bribing of individuals may have been personally committed by CR or with his knowledge and concurrence. These are matters still to be investigated and determined. One appreciates the fact that as a sitting President, he may have influenced in one way or the other how the said theft was concealed if at all from the public eye and ear. The investigations currently underway into the theft and other related matters will tell us if indeed he influenced or manipulated the rule of law in how the theft issue was handled. The long and short of the legal part of the criminal complaint against CR is still underway and yet to be determined. CR has himself pronounced that he is constrained somewhat to divulge more than he has on the criminal complaint and more importantly that he will firstly allow without hindrance the law to take its course and secondly that he will subject himself to all the necessary processes as and when the need arises. The jury is still out there on this score.
Up to this point in time, the mere mention of a scandal as reported by Fraser puts CR on the back foot in South Africa and elsewhere. Considering that Presidents are more often than not prone to scandals some of which will be far worse than the one facing him, such Presidents have survived them either by officials investigating them sweeping them under the carpet at the behest of such Presidents or otherwise. I find it hard that CR could attempt to influence his matter being swept under the carpet for the simple reason that firstly, no official will want his/her name to be associated with such conduct and secondly that given the amount of public interest the scandal has attracted, sweeping the matter under the carpet will be hard if not impossible. There are probably officials who are against him for one reason or the other while there are those who may be sympathetic to him. No one knows where the other stands on the matter. At the end of the day, it will be touch-and-go affair. Politically speaking, there are good chances that he will survive while legally, he could become stuck if it proved beyond any reasonable doubt that he aided and abetted criminality. Only time will tell. I am prepared to be persuaded otherwise as always. Judge for Yourself!
‘No one is safe until everyone is safe’. Covid-19 numbers are reportedly rising exponentially. Let us not lower our guard by ignoring adherence to all health protocols.
