In 2015 I stood on the shores of an island off the coast of China near the city of Xiamen. This trip followed the China-Africa summit that was held in Johannesburg, South Africa. The Chinese had invited media personnel from Anglophone Africa as an exercise of exposure on what the country has to offer.This was just 50km from the island of Taiwan and the Chinese were repeatedly reminding us that this was part of China.
Nancy Pelosi who is the Speaker of the House of Representatives in the United States of America has just completed a visit to the island of Taiwan and in that action ratchetting and escalating matters in that region militarily and politically.
The background surrounding the relationship between China and Taiwan goes back as far as 1949 at the time when the Chinese Communist Party took over power in that year. This marked the end of a prolonged civil war between Mao’s followers and those of Chiang Kai-shek. The later fled to Taiwan upon defeat and established a parallel government over there.
Chiang had earlier ruled China under his Kuomintang party also known as the KMT. Under his nationalist government, Chiang was determined to annihilate the communists who had come to organize themselves as a party in 1921. Between this year and 1949 there was a lot that happened including what is known as the Long March by the Chinese Red Army and during this trying time Mao Zedong gained popularity and was catapulted high into the ranks of the CCP.
Chiang largely believed in democratic ideals but in real practice this man was far more fascist than what he claimed to be in public view. Mao actually referred to him as the Hitler of China. Being a fascist, a lot of people were killed under the rule of Chiang and after many attempts; the CCP with its Red Army was able to defeat Chiang and his followers and they fled to the island of Taiwan where they found refuge.
Before fleeing to Taiwan, the civil war in China was multi-faceted in that the Japanese invasion of that country in the province of Manchuria occurred at the time when Chiang was still fighting the communists. Chiang lost the war to the People’s Liberation Army in 1949 and fled to Taiwan where he set up a new government in Taipei.
However, mainland China still lay claim over Taiwan from the word go! Taiwan came to be known as the Republic of China (ROC). What is critical is that China has maintained a One-China policy whereby the government of Beijing does not recognize the independence of Taiwan. This is the policy that the US also subscribes to and all other three permanent members of the Security Council at the UN.
Beijing has always maintained that one day the island would be reunited with the mainland and they have made attempts of reunification through peaceful means. For China, the issue of Taiwan is as contentious as that of Tibet. The summary of the long story is that the US did not need to add fuel to the fire in the manner that Pelosi did this past week.
However, we have to understand the independence of the office of Speaker in the US. One can imagine a situation where Hon Dumelang Saleshando would insist on going on a trip to the Palestinian territories while Israel is highly opposed to such a move. In the case where the government of Botswana sees that the trip would highly antagonise them against Israel, they would not provide the resources needed to fulfil the trip.
But the endless freedoms in US democracy is sometimes crazy because Pelosi travelled against all advise from the White House and as well as the Pentagon. One Chinese observer who used to work as a diplomat in the UK has clearly stated that Pelosi has given the Beijing government a good reason to fast track the take-over of Taiwan which is undoubtedly a part of China.
The Chinese government has in the past chosen not to use force to abrogate Taiwan’s self-rule. Taiwan is still not independent though it is still run independently from China. Beijing had in the past wanted to do the take-over of Taiwan through a negotiated settlement. But now they have been given an opportunity by the US to do it by force.
Pelosi has advisors and they should have realised that the actions of the Speaker of the House that she was provoking China into taking Taiwan by force. Honestly speaking, Congress will not authorise the Pentagon to respond militarily if China uses force to take over Taiwan.
With the current war between Russia and Ukraine is a clear reminder the world has gone back to something of the sort that used to happen in medieval times when the most powerful could just take over territory. Russia has already set precedence and the US must have this in their memory.
Unlike Russia which is making a dishonest claim on Ukrainian territory, China has a legitimate claim on Taiwan which was separated from it seventy-three years ago. Taiwan as a province of China will finally fall in the hands of the mainland. One of the Chinese observers says this is going to happen in Pelosi’s lifetime.
Now that China has been given a chance to exercise its option to take over Taiwan by force, they are going to fulfil it. Currently the People’s Liberation Army has blockaded the sea around Taiwan and the US has not come to the aid of their allies. Should war breakout, still the US will not come to the rescue of Taiwan.
Now that things have gone wrong and absolutely so, Taiwan needs to begin a process of negotiating a peaceful settlement to the crisis. They will need to get a broker and make advances to the ultimate reunification process. Reunification will happen and there are no two ways about it. The ball is now in the court of Taipei.
