In 2008, when the world economic crisis started to bite, Botswana was forced to shut down all of the diamond mines.
That moment was to give this country an economic feel of what the future of Botswana would be like in the post diamonds era.
Thankfully, there were reserves at the Bank of Botswana from which government was able to withdraw to minimize the economic impact.
As a result of the reserves, very few planned public programmes were affected, but still the economic atmosphere had been unmistakably contaminated.
As current experience has so clearly shown, Government reserves at Bank of Botswana are not finite and when they are drawn at a rate that exceeds their replenishing, they will inevitably diminish.
Official figures from Debswana indicate that around 2030, it will become much more costly to get diamonds out of the ground.
This will not be because diamonds would be depleted; far from it.
Rather, it will be a result of increased depths at which they would by then be found.
Mining engineers involved in simulating the mine landscapes predict that it will be around that time that Debswana mines would have to go underground and part with the current open pit formulations.
When that time comes, mining will become prohibitively costly as it follows that there will be moved much more tons of trash for every diamond dug from the earth’s belly.
Put in simpler terms, the profitability of Debswana diamond Mines will significantly decrease translating in less dividends to shareholders at least in proportionate terms compared to what situation obtains today.
Given the role that diamonds proceeds play in the overall economy of Botswana and the extent to which to date we have failed to wean the economy away from diamonds by way of economic diversification, then the future is scary enough.
The pretention painted by Botswana Government that diamonds will always be there for us is therefore a big lie.
Across the world, including here at home and across the border in South Africa, there are many examples of mines that had closed, not because resources had gotten depleted but simply on account that returns no longer justified investments as operation costs had significantly skyrocketed.
What we need in place is not just an economic business plan which effectively takes into account the fact that the era of diamonds as we have always known it is coming to an end.,
That plan, it has to be said would be meaningless if there is no candid admission on the part of the planners that the contribution of diamonds shall not always be what it was in the past.
There is all likelihood that the economic growths that Botswana had grown accustomed to in the past will never ever return.
This reality too has to be debated and communicated.
Unfortunately, our government, planners and economists are united in not saying this out.
By glossing over these critical matters, our government is somehow guilty not just of disinformation but dishonesty too.
The nation needs to know that going forward and in the not so distant future diamond receipts are projected to drastically decline.
Public knowledge of this fact is crucial and is a matter of public duty for those entrusted with the information.
Only when there is a debate on these matters can there be a public appreciation of the fact that economic diversification is a matter of urgency and that it is an economic imperative that cannot be postponed forever.
