The ruling party is going through the most difficult time since it was founded in 1962.
Although officially the Botswana Movement for Democracy has broken away, the truth of the matter is that the split is still working itself up.
It will be sometime before the process is complete.
It shows in all the meetings addressed by President Ian Khama- theoretically called to stem the tide, but in practice only widening up the floodgates ÔÇô that storm is still brewing.
Many dissidents are still taking abode inside the BDP, weighing up their options and observing the mood as well as the direction of the wind.
Those silent dissidents are a source of instability for the ruling party.
It must be awfully frustrating knowing that no action will be taken against them for they have done nothing wrong.
As things stand it’s a good guess that from the look of things BMD strategists are actively encouraging many of their followers to bid their time and remain ensconced inside the BDP if only to distabilise the ruling party.
Any instability inside the BDP is a priceless asset to the BMD.
Thus the sooner President Khama realizes that some of the people wearing his colours are no longer his followers the better for him.
It will be long before we actually know who is a true BDP member and who is a BMD one.
We have to wait until after 2013 when the BDP has gone for bulela ditswe ÔÇô if it ever will ÔÇô for us to know who the true BDP members are. In the meantime distrust abounds.
Until that time, suspicion and backbiting will run havoc.
Suspicion drives fears of disloyalty. Forget about evidence; people will be dragged before the kangaroo courts to prove that they are not BMD spies.
In the process the BDP will make mistakes, including that of turning against their true members.
The Americans call it McCarthyism, named after Joseph McCarthy, a famous Senator who in the 1950s caused quite a stir when, without regard for evidence, he accused senior administration officials of working for the communist Soviet.
In the midst of all this mayhem the one most interesting character has to be Daniel Kwelagobe.
Officially, he is with the BDP, their National Chairman in fact. But the air is getting contaminated because the chubby faced BMD young architects continue to look up to him as their spiritual leader.
Given his passionate defence of the departed BMD founders at the ruling party National Council, rightly or wrongly, even the general public is beginning to get suspicious that people like Sidney Pilane, Botsalo Ntuane, Gomolemo Motswaledi and Kabo Morwaeng, who officially are the ringleaders, may actually just be the monkeys and that Kwelagobe is the real organ grinder who pulls the strings from behind the scenes.
Like all the dissidents hiding inside the BDP, Kwelagobe’s baleful presence is a source of trouble for the party. He is serving a purpose.
Even as the ruling party is in flames, Kwelagobe has so far refused to appear in a public platform with President Khama to deliver his share of insults at the new kid on the block. For the new party he is doing a marvelous job.
It certainly would not have escaped the worried BDP faithful that Kwelagobe has a long history of a close relationship with all the disaffected mandarins that control the BMD.
Is it just coincidence that he has used his speech at the National Council on Saturday to decry a culture of unfairness and uneven handedness inside the BDP?
Is it just coincidence that he has told the delegates that he remains a member of Barata Phathi faction, this at a time when President Khama and his hand-picked disciplinary committee is systematically flushing out and purging this faction from the ranks of the BDP?
Those, I think are the questions for the President to ponder. He needs not answer them.
But whatever the answers, it’s clear that Kwelagobe still has fire inside his belly.
Like controlling him, muzzling him will be the most difficult thing for the party.
Those who had hoped he would resign in frustration seem poised for a big frustration themselves.