The evening was posh, so was the restaurant. Sushi, (an overrated miniscule Japanese meal of rice and uncooked fish) served as starter. The venue, was equally posh, an upmarket hotel in Gaborone. After exchange of pleasantries in Arabic, we all went dead quiet. The deafening silence was occasionally disturbed by my cough, as I battled to accustom my palate to Japan’s culinary contribution to the world. It did not work out, I gave up. I wish I could comment on circumstances that brought Ihsanullah Azim here, but since I am not certain, I will spare you suppositions and speculation. But here, he was, Colonel Ihsanullah Azim of Afghan National Army. A man whose skills and knowledge in the art of war had not only been honed and refined by the notoriously impenetrable terrain of Afghanistan, but also qualified by prestigious military schools of the West. He was a graduate of US’ Army War College, a reputable military institution with alumni like, General Colin Powell and General Norman Schwarzkopf. Besides, he was a beneficiary of defragmentation of various tribal Afghan militia to into Afghan National Army. He was probably from Northern Alliance, (a US-funded loose coalition of tribal militias from northern Afghanistan mainly, Tajiks and Uzbeks). But due to inherent sensitivities in such discussions, it would have been utterly stupid to seek clarity on such aspects.
Afghanistan was the subject of our meeting. In particular, the West’s US-led adventure in Afghanistan. At the time, it was increasingly becoming clear that the Transatlantic Alliance with all its laser-guided weapons and hypersonic planes was in the hornets’ nest. And there was no hope, they could turn the tide. Not even in Jesus’s Third Coming. Before he could even utter a word, Colonel Azim gave me coy look, which quickly transitioned into indifference. An expression of hopelessness, yet deep concern was written all over his face. “It is true, Afghanistan is graveyard of empires,” said Azim, in deep Arabic accent. He then poured in gallons of Afghan history and tribal dynamics, on how empire after empire, have fallen attempting to conquer Afghanistan, the “graveyard of empires”. Little did I know that, even the most-feared Mongol warrior, Genghis Khan had dared Afghanistan, only to regret the misadventure. The same Afghanistan, which defeated Genghis Khan in the 13th Century, came to haunt the British in the 19th Century, Russians in the 20th Century and now the Americans in the 21st Century. The inhospitable terrain, the unforgiving and unpredictable weather, fractured tribal politics, turbulent relations with the local population and armed battle-hardened militia.
For Azim, there would be nothing surprising if the US and its allies were to abandon their adventure in Afghanistan. They would only be the latest in a long series of nations to do so. The British’s 1839 invasion of Afghanistan was not so much a defeat, it was a complete humiliation: a military disaster of unprecedented proportions, perhaps only matched by the Fall of Singapore exactly 100 years later. Fearful of increased Russian interest in the area, the British decided to invade Afghanistan and marched unchallenged into Kabul in early 1839 with a force of approximately 16,000 to 20,000 British and Indian troops collectively known as Indus. Yet a mere three years later there was only one known British survivor, Assistant Surgeon, William Brydon who limped into the safety of Jalalabad on a mortally wounded horse. Asked what had happened to the army, Brydon is reported to have answered, “I am the army”. Many had perished from cold, hunger, exposure and exhaustion through the perilous Afghan mountains in horrendous winter conditions. Despite all that unkind history, Soviet Union marched into Afghanistan in 1979. Ten years later, they left tattered, torn and starring at the collapse of the Soviet empire.
My first interaction with Afghanistan came in a form of a call from a friend. He was worried at the momentum events were evolving post-September 11 and inevitability of war in the Middle East. I gave him my layman opinion. Few days later, he called to say his employer had appreciated my opinion and wished I could expand it. It was nothing more than strategic warning brief, premised on, Ponatshego Mokane’s poem stanza, “ntwa ga e lowe ka bokima..” Although, we Batswana, may not find value in the statement, it is actually the essence of asymmetric doctrine of war. The warning to the Allied forces was that, they were entering a new terrain of warfare, where advanced military hardware and technology would count for nothing. Further, they were fighting an adversary whose cause of action, negated the very premise of war. In conventional understanding of instruments of national power, war is a rational coercive instrument to seek compliance. Therefore, by maximising fatality or the threat thereof on the adversary, we may impose our will. However, the Taliban like other mujahedeen groups, death attains them ‘martyr,’ status. Therefore, maximising fatality on their side, would not necessarily generate compliance. Therefore, besides, both Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom being based on entirely false intelligence, they were also anchored on wrong instruments. Military invasion was never a solution.
It is needless to narrate the events of the past two weeks in Afghanistan. It was not meant to end like this. No fanfare. No ceremony. No claims of mission accomplished. Just like those who came before, America’s war in Afghanistan, is ending in a crushing defeat. It is logical conclusion. Allied forces are scrambling out of Afghanistan. As the Taliban advanced towards Kabul and all routes to the Kabul fell under their control, it became crystal clear to Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, every diplomat, security official and intelligence operative that Hamid Karzai International Airport would be their only way out. It took the Taliban exactly ten days to sweep through the entire country and march straight to the presidential palace. The 300 000strong Afghan forces, abandoned posts and fled without firing a single shot. Ever since the resurgence of the Taliban, I have been in constant contact with my old friend, Azim, now a Major General and Commandant of Marshal Fahim National Defense University. He is on the run. Taliban has taken over the University. I did not enquire about his location. At this time, such questions, are a matter of life and death. All I can tell the world is that, he feels abandoned and betrayed, very betrayed. In our latest conversation, he told me, “Situation here in Kabul is really very dangerous”. He concluded our conversation by paraphrasing Afghan proverb, “Americans had watches, Taliban had time.”
