This past weekend saw yet another set of by-elections in three different places in the country. Scores of Batswana, surprisingly for a by-election, went to the polls to elect their new councillors in Goodhope, Moshupa West and Ngware wards. For those who have not been around, these by-elections were prompted by a tie of votes declared by the IEC in those wards during the 2014 general elections. In Ngware the BDP and the UDC could not be separated, as was the case also in Goodhope. So, too, could the BCP and the ruling party not be separated in Moshupa West.
This instalment reflects on these by-elections with particular emphasis placed on understanding the implications for the BDP after its historic loss in all three wards under contention. Yes, the BDP loss was unprecedented. Never before has the mighty BDP lost by-elections in the manner it did over the weekend. A context to better understand the latest by-elections is in order.
In the 2014 general elections the ruling party nearly snatched the races in all these wards. Luck was not on their side for these ones! They were tied with BCP in Moshupa West and UDC in Ngware and Goodhope. For Moshupa West BCP and BDP each managed to get well over 700 votes. In Goodhope the numbers for BDP and UDC went past the 700 mark. Again, in Ngware the ruling party and UDC each got over 500. It was a spirited fight from the BDP by all accounts. They proved a formidable force prepared to condemn a divided opposition to an embarrassing loss.
As for the opposition, they also managed to account well for themselves given the lack of resources and coverage, especially by state broadcasters during campaign for general elections. But they equally did badly where they were not tied with the BDP. Dismal performance, especially for the BCP candidates is an understatement in every sense of the word. In Ngware, for example, the BCP candidate managed only 17 votes.
A somewhat similar terrible performance was also recorded in Goodhope. In Moshupa the UDC achieved around 300 votes while the leading parties were getting more than 700 votes. Effectively, opposition was not doing well when they were losing, while the BDP performed generally impressive in the three wards. It would be fair to say the race was between BDP and others.
The by-elections, however, produced a different set of results. Opposition parties would outperform the ruling party in all the wards in a convincing manner. Indeed, it was unexpected that the BDP will be thrashed in that fashion. UDC came out the biggest winner taking two of the three wards, being Goodhope and Ngware. The BCP capped an unlikely whitewash for the opposition winning Moshupa West. The margins of win were also interesting. As indicated above, these by-elections did attract more voters than is usually the case with similar elections. In Goodhope UDC polled over a thousand votes while the BCP received an increased share of votes from those of the general elections. The notable outcome of the results was a loss for the ruling party.
But why would a party that nearly won all the three wards come out the biggest loser? Put differently, what accounted for the BDP loss? I doubt I have all the answers, but there is something interesting emerging from within the BDP, which can best explain the dismal performance by the ruling party in the recent by-elections. BDP is a party in crisis mode. Yes, this is a 50 plus old party and, as nature would dictate, it was bound to lose touch with reality somewhere in its life. Its loss of sense of reality has, however, increased pace in recent times.
Despite the amount of monies and other resources at their disposal, the party is unable to expand its influence in electoral terms. It has, technically speaking, lost touch with reality. The only way they can go is downhill. How sad for a party that only a few years ago was, literally speaking, unconquerable! But things have changed around it. Sadly, it has opted to stay the same.
The rot began with the end of inner party democracy. Where dialogue used to be king, fear has taken over thereby reducing the party of Seretse to an ordinary institution. The drive and spark that used to define the BDP has disappeared. In its place has cropped up spineless cadres who talk in hushed tones. They admit that the party needs to change but no one is prepared to call for adaptation as a survival mechanism for it. They all know the elephant in the house but calling names is a sin within the party. How sad!
But like any other dominant party, BDP was always going to decline and face subsequent extinction. The hope is that the disappearance of BDP will not usher in our polity new form of politics marked by reversal of democratic rule. The decline of the BDP should be an interesting development for our republic in the sense that for the first time since independence elections of 1965, BDP rule might be coming to an end in the not so distant future. And that should be a source of celebration for those seeking democratic consolidation of our polity. A Turnover test will finally be realised.
For now, the latest BDP loss in the three wards should provide the much needed impetus for opposition parties to work out a plan for cooperation while their enemy appears wounded. Failure to do that will certainly offer the ruling party another lease of life and hence prolonging their stay in office. As I indicated above this is not good for our economy or politics if we are still to be considered a mature democracy in the continent.
