Towards end of December 2021, the Independent Electoral Commission conducted by-elections in 11 Council Wards across the Country. Of the 11, BDP won 3, being Tumasera, Metsimotlhabe and Moshupa East, whilst Opposition parties won 8: Nkange, Tamasane, Khwee, Motokwe, Lentsweletau, Mochudi East, Lorolwane and Ga Molopo. In the last General Elections that were held in 2019, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) had won Nkange, Khwee and Tumasera. The opposition was further buoyed when they won the Ledumadumane Ward this year 2022.
Writing in “Politics Review” Volume 22, Number 4, April 2013 in an Article entitled “What are the differences between general elections and by-elections?”, Ian Richards draws the distinctions as follows: general elections function to elect a national government and they have a National focus, they are fought across a range of policies and issues (publication of manifestos etc), and are characterized by high turnout; bye-elections on the other hand have a local focus, even though Party leaders will often visit to give support. They are fought across a narrower range of policies, sometimes one issue or a local topic, are characterized by low turnout, and often involve protest voting against major parties in support of minor parties. In some instances, bye elections can sometimes be taken to reflect broader political trends and used by the media to predict possible results at the next general election.
Indications however are that in Botswana, by elections are used as a protest vote against the major Party BDP and are not a measure to reflect broader political trends and cannot be used to predict possible results of the next general election. To support this theory, I will sample by elections that were held in between the 2014 and 2019 general elections. This is crucial because the BDP was at the weakest then, having garnered the least of popular vote in its history.
In the 2009 general elections, BDP emerged victorious via 53.26% popular vote. In the 2014 general elections, on the parliamentary contests, the BDP had garnered 46.7% which was a decline in popular vote of about 6.56% from the 2009 general elections performance. The UDC came second with 30.01 % votes followed by BCP with 20.43 % votes. This led some pundits to conclude that come 2019, should the BCP join UDC, it will signal a victory for the UDC against the BDP.
After the 2014 general elections, there was pressure on BCP to join UDC on the mistaken belief that a combined UDC/BCP vote would necessarily result in the UDC winning the 2019 general elections. The calls intensified after the Goodhope/Mabule Parliamentary bye elections, which saw the UDC reclaim the constituency polling 6152 votes, to the BDPs 4372 with the BCP coming a distant 3rd with a paltry 385 votes. “The BCP should accept that it made an error by not joining the UDC before the 2014 general elections and should now expedite the process of joining the umbrella,” said Anthony Morima, a political analyst. Eventually the BCP joined the UDC.
As if that was not enough for the BDP, there was a rift that saw the formation of a breakaway Party to be known as the Botswana Patriotic Front. The Party had as their Patrion, the Former President of the BDP and Country Lt General Seretse Khama Ian Khama. SKI Khama sought closer ties with the opposition UDC in a bid to challenge Masisi in the election. I submit that the formation of the BPF is ‘Manna from Heaven’ for the BDP and the BPF is going to “do wonders” for the BDP come the 2024 general elections. This is a discussion for another day.
The BDP was vulnerable in this period (Years 2014 to 2019). As highlighted above, the Party had the lowest ever popular vote, the BCP had joined the UDC, and former BDP President was campaigning for the opposition. And of course, the Opposition made gains during the bye elections as it appears to be the case now.
In 2017, there was a Parliamentary by election in Tlokweng occasioned by the passing of the area MP, Ms Same Bathobakae (MHSRIEP) from the BNF fold. The UDC retained the constituency through their candidate Masego Segokgo who polled 4, 635 votes to BDP’s Elijah Katse’s 2, 156.
As for the Council wards, in July 2016, there was a by election in Ramotswa, Kelemogile Ward. The BCP backed by a united opposition reclaimed the Ward through Seitiso Ditlhong garnering 825 votes against the BDP’s Best Mosadi’s 725. In July 2018, the UDC represented by Mr Morapedi Mafohla once again won the Ramokgwebana Polling District Bye-election with 378 votes, to the BDP’s 293.
Based on the good run in the by elections, the UDC Leadership and faithful were boisterous and confident they are winning the 2019 general elections. That notwithstanding, BDP went on to win the Tlokweng Parliamentary seat they had lost in the by elections through Thulaganyo Segokgo with 7473 votes to UDC’s Masego Segokgo who polled 4654. The BDP won the 2019 general elections emphatically, with an increased popular vote at 52.65%.
This backs the conclusion that in the Botswana context, by elections “involve protest voting against major parties in support of minor parties” and they have been used by the voter to protest against the BDP. The UDC’s good run at the by elections can therefore not be reflective of the trends nor can they be used to predict possible results at the next general election, including the recent bye election victories by UDC.
Spencer Mogapi captures it succinctly in the Watchdog Column of 13 to 19 February 2022 entitled “A life lesson to UDC – One Swallow does not make a Summer” when he pens: “It is tempting for Umbrella for Democratic Change activists to start believing that change is nigh. People might be pulling in the opposite direction, but the BDP is not dead. To paraphrase Mark Twain reports that the BDP is dying might turn out to be exaggerated. Evidence on social media shows that the party’s hardcore supporters are getting much more hardline and extreme in their loyalty to the brand”. Whatever way one looks at it, the fact that the BDP was able to retain Tumasera lays credence to Spencer Mogapi’s assertion above.
There can be no denying that the Opposition are Bo Nkwenkgoga ba bye elections (Champions when it comes to the bye elections), benefiting from protest votes. The BDP on the other hand, are Bo Nkwenkgoga ba general elections (Champions when it comes to the General Elections) as a trusted Party that is considered to have a national focus and the best interests of Batswana at heart.
* Dr Raphael Dingalo was a member of the BDPs Publicity Committee
