It is not in dispute that the BCP, an offshoot of the then main opposition Botswana National Front (BNF), suffered one of its most humiliating defeats in the 2014 general elections, winning only three of the 57 constituencies. This however was not its first humiliating defeat since formation. In 1999, the newly formed BCP which was formed mainly by former BNF Members of Parliament (MPs) suffered its worst defeat at the polls. Eleven BNF MP’s defected to form BCP in 1998, disgruntled after losing numerous court battles with former BNF leader, the late Dr Kenneth Koma.┬á ??
The BCP adopted the slogan “Kgololesesego ya Sechaba” but went on to lose dismally, retaining only one MP in the 1999 general elections ÔÇô the late Joseph Kavindama. After suffering the humiliating defeat, some of BCP’s founding members like the late Paul Rantao and Isaac Mabiletsa, together with a horde of other stalwarts retraced their steps back to the BNF. Unfazed by the electoral defeat and subsequent defections of some prominent BCP founding members, the remaining hard core membership soldiered on and slowly built the BCP into a political powerhouse.
However, the 2004 general election did not prove any better for the young BCP. The party won only one constituency, Gaborone Central through Dumelang Saleshando, its current president, who trounced Margaret Nasha of the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP). After the 2004 general elections, the BCP spread its political wings to embrace Botswana Alliance Movement (BAM) and National Democratic Front (NDF) into its fold.
The move paid dividends as the party won seven seats in the 2009 general elections.??There was no doubt that the party was growing in leaps and bounds. Buoyed by the strong growth, BCP participated in the first opposition coalition talks. However due to differences in constituency allocations during the talks, the rank and file of its members rejected the second round of opposition unity talks which resulted in the formation of the three party coalition UDC comprising BNF, the newly formed Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) and Botswana Peoples Party (BPP). The talks were facilitated by Lebang Mpotokwane, Emang Maphanyane and retired High Court judge Justice John Mosojane.??
When the first round of talks collapsed in December 2011, the BCP national executive took a countrywide consultative tour on whether to continue with the second round of the talks. The party’s rank and file opted for the party to concentrate on preparing for the 2014 general election. The other three parties went for the second round of opposition unity talks on their own and formed the UDC. At the time, unconfirmed reports indicated that the BCP rank and file did not trust the BMD as most of its founding members like Botsalo Ntuane, Samson Guma and others had already retraced their steps back to the ruling BDP. Fast forward to the 2014 general election, the BCP mounted an intensive election campaign.
However, the election results dealt the party another debilitating blow as it managed to retain only three seats in parliament; Selibe-Phikwe West, won by Dithaopelo Kerapetse, Okavango, won by Bagalatia Arone and Ramotswa which was won by Samuel Rantuana. To add salt to injury, the party president Dumelang Saleshando lost Gaborone Central constituency to UDC’s newcomer Phenyo Butale who replaced Gomolemo Motswaledi after his tragic death in a car accident towards the general elections.
?On the other hand, UDC did very well, winning 17 parliamentary seats. There was a general perception that the BCP was punished for not being part of the opposition umbrella. The opposition umbrella also enjoyed support of the civil service umbrella federation BOFEPUSO.
However, the issue at the moment for political discussion is whether the BCP should now join the umbrella coalition. The perception notwithstanding, die hard BCP are not keen on joining the umbrella coalition. They argue that it is premature to join the umbrella coalition without knowing what they stand to gain especially that some members at the UDC are agitating for dissolution of their different parties, which will become the major agenda item for their congresses in July.??A BCP insider argues that it would be premature for his party to want to join the umbrella coalition now without knowing how the different parties comprising the umbrella would decide on the issue of dissolution of their parties.??“It would be clearly unwise for us to join the UDC now. We appreciate the hard fact that we did not do well in the past election. However, it ought to be observed that the number of people who voted for the BCP increased from almost 100 000 in 2009 to 140 000 in 2014 although the growth has not translated in increased parliament seats. It is quite clear that our message to the voters in the past election was convincing. We need to take our time before opting to join the umbrella,” he said.
?Another insider said if the BCP does not quickly join the umbrella coalition it will die a natural death in the long run as voters have clearly shown that they prefer a united opposition.
?“We do not have time to dilly-dally on the cooperation issue. We have already been punished and we need to move fast to ensure that we become part of the umbrella opposition. Batswana sent a clear message that it is only a united opposition that will wrestle power from the ruling BDP. A fragmented opposition will continue to split the votes and thus give the BDP an edge. The BDP’s popular vote is on a clear decline and it would be prudent for the opposition to unite now in preparation for the next general election,” said another BCP insider.??His fear is that if the BCP does not join the umbrella bandwagon, it will suffer more humiliation in 2019.??“Batswana want a united opposition. They are clearly fed up with the BDP. The ruling party has failed to deliver on national aspirations as you can see that unemployment and poverty levels are on the rise. Most graduates cannot find employment opportunities and they are extremely disgruntled. In the next general election the older generation will not be there to vote for the ruling BDP. Batswana sent a clear message to the opposition to unite,” said the disgruntled BCP member.??His view is that if the BCP joins the umbrella now, it will be able to fully participate on the way forward.??“If we do not join the opposition, then we have to work out a cooperating model with the UDC to ensure that where UDC is represented, the BCP does not field candidates. The same should also apply to the UDC. It should not field candidates in constituencies that are BCP strongholds.
That is the only way the opposition can wrestle power from the BDP. The BDP is tired. A new government should take over and move the country forward”, said another BCP activist.??It however remains to be seen whether the opposition, fragmented as it is, will able to forge a cooperating model for the next general election. Failure to cooperate may give the BDP another lease of life despite the many plights that the majority of electorates continue to endure.
